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The document describes Mozambique as a low-income country with significant mineral and marine resources but persistent structural challenges. While the country saw rapid growth between 1993 and 2015 and improvements in health and electricity access, it has struggled with a narrow productive base and high poverty levels. Recent growth has slowed due to the 'hidden debt' scandal, insurgency, and climate shocks. The report highlights the risk that gas megaprojects may not lead to inclusive development without strategic governance and economic diversification.

The document evaluates the impact of different policy interventions on Mozambique's future. It finds that while individual sectoral scenarios like Large Infrastructure and Agriculture boost GDP per capita, a 'Combined scenario' integrating multiple sectors offers the most significant gains, potentially reducing extreme poverty from 65.1% to 40% by 2043. However, this accelerated growth is projected to increase carbon emissions to 47.6 million tons by 2043. The energy sector, dominated by gas, is expected to become the primary economic driver under the Combined scenario.

Gabon is an upper-middle-income country in Central Africa characterized by significant natural resource wealth, particularly in oil and timber. Following a September 2023 coup that ended the Bongo family's long reign, the country is under a transition government led by Brice Oligui Nguema, aiming for elections on 12 April 2025. Despite its high GDP per capita driven by petroleum, Gabon faces persistent development challenges, including high youth unemployment, entrenched inequality, and a lack of economic diversification.

The East African Community (EAC) is a regional economic community comprising eight member states with a combined 2023 GDP of US$296 billion. While the EAC has established a customs union, common market, and monetary union protocol, its ultimate goal of a political federation has seen progress stall, partly due to the COVID-19 pandemic and regional instability.

The document models the potential impact of different development paths on Algeria's GDP, poverty levels, and energy landscape by 2043. It finds that a 'Combined scenario'—integrating improvements in governance, education, health, and infrastructure—would significantly increase GDP per capita and reduce extreme poverty and inequality. However, this economic growth is projected to increase carbon emissions. The analysis also highlights Algeria's heavy reliance on gas and oil, while noting its potential for renewable energy development.

The document argues that TotalEnergies SE has misled investors by claiming alignment with the Paris Agreement while continuing to increase fossil fuel production. It highlights the systemic financial risk climate change poses to global portfolios and asserts that TotalEnergies' disclosures—including claims about the role of natural gas as a transition fuel and the 'substitution' argument for continued extraction—are inaccurate. The authors call for an AMF investigation into potential breaches of the AMF General Regulations, the European Market Abuse Regulation (MAR), and the French Monetary and Financial Code.

The document examines the intersection of AI data centre growth and Canada's electricity grid, highlighting risks such as increased emissions from gas-powered generation and the potential for data centres to crowd out other electrification efforts. Conversely, it suggests that data centres can act as 'anchor tenants' for cleaner grids by spurring private investment in infrastructure and providing grid flexibility. Because electricity regulation is primarily provincial, the author proposes a federal framework of 'conditional carrots' (funding tied to clean energy), 'binding sticks' (Clean Electricity Regulations and carbon pricing), and 'transparency infrastructure' (national reporting standards) to align provincial actions with national climate objectives.

At the 2026 African Development Bank (AfDB) Annual Meetings, Recourse is calling for a shift in development finance to prioritise equitable renewable energy access and a just transition across Africa. The organisation demands a dedicated financing window for decentralised renewable energy (DRE), targeting at least 30% of energy access financing by 2027, and urges the Bank to halt all LNG and fossil gas financing. Recourse also advocates for grant-based and concessional public finance to prevent increasing debt distress and calls for stronger protections for communities affected by energy and extractive projects.

Germany possesses a strong pipeline of grid-scale and residential battery projects, but current policy frameworks and the preferential treatment of gas in upcoming capacity auctions risk slowing deployment. The report highlights that operationalizing the existing battery pipeline could have significantly reduced wind and solar curtailment and associated costs in 2025. It calls for a regulatory shift to treat batteries as a first-order solution for grid stability and flexibility.

The report finds that British power prices are becoming increasingly independent of gas, with 15% of generation already de-linked via the Contracts for Difference (CfD) scheme. This proportion is forecast to rise to 36% by 2030. The document highlights that high renewable generation, particularly wind and solar, significantly lowers wholesale prices; in 2025, hours where gas was below 20% of the mix averaged £60/MWh, compared to £130/MWh when gas exceeded 50%. Recent data from March and April 2026 shows record wind and solar generation displacing gas during a period of geopolitical conflict and fuel price spikes.

The US-Israel invasion of Iran in February 2026 has accelerated the global transition to clean energy as 23 countries announced new measures to reduce fossil fuel vulnerability. Clean energy ETFs have outperformed oil and gas ETFs in early May 2026, with renewable energy funds attracting over USD 3 billion in April 2026. Investor sentiment is shifting, with a rise in those ranking renewables top for one-year returns (14% vs 9% in 2025) and a decline in the perceived necessity of natural gas for the transition, particularly in Asia. While the cost of capital remains significantly higher in emerging markets (12.95%) compared to Europe (5.02%), geopolitical instability is prompting a reassessment of risk premiums in favor of domestic renewables.

The document analyzes the proposed changes to Mozambique's Petroleum Law, arguing that while the government aims to attract investment and economic development, the law remains vague on community rights. It emphasizes that legally binding agreements between oil companies and affected populations are only effective if communities have independent legal and technical support. The text warns that the inclusion of Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) may be used to justify continued fossil fuel extraction without addressing the costs borne by local populations. It calls for 'real consultations' and specific, verifiable benefit-sharing mechanisms to ensure that extractive wealth does not solely benefit the elite while locals suffer land loss and pollution.

The document examines the revision of Mozambique's Petroleum Law, highlighting the risks that the new framework may prioritize investor confidence over community rights. It identifies key changes, such as the introduction of binding agreements with affected communities, human rights compliance reports, and the inclusion of Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) technology. The author argues that without specific, enforceable rules on land rights, compensation, and benefit-sharing, these legal changes may remain symbolic and fail to protect local populations from the costs of extractive development.

The report argues that the TotalEnergies-EPH joint venture (TTEP) locks Europe into fossil gas dependency, increases energy bill volatility through LNG imports, and relies on public subsidies that should be redirected toward clean energy. It highlights that the venture's 12.5 GW gas capacity will produce emissions comparable to entire countries like Ireland or Denmark over five years, while challenging the companies' claims that such assets are necessary for grid flexibility.

The briefing argues that the Asian Development Bank (ADB) uses financial intermediaries (FIs) like Clifford Capital to bypass restrictions on fossil gas investments. While the ADB committed to Paris Agreement goals in 2017 and stopped financing coal, it provided approximately $4.48bn for oil and gas infrastructure in Asia Pacific between 2017 and 2025. The document highlights Clifford Capital, which received a $95m equity investment from the ADB in 2020, as a channel for funding fossil gas projects, including the Tangguh LNG project in Indonesia and Bhola-2 in Bangladesh. The authors call for greater transparency in FI lending, a prohibition on new fossil gas infrastructure funding, and a time-bound fossil fuels exit plan.

The report finds that by 2025, fossil fuel power generation fell below its peak in all 38 OECD member countries, driven by the rapid scaling of solar and wind energy. This trend is extending to emerging markets, with 2025 marking the first year this century (excluding 2020) that non-OECD fossil generation fell, specifically in China and India. The transition is increasingly driven by economic imperatives, as the levelized cost of solar and onshore wind is now 60% lower than combined cycle gas turbines.

The First Conference for the Transition beyond Fossil Fuels, held in Santa Marta, Colombia, from April 24 to 29, aims to establish practical solutions for phasing out coal, oil, and gas. Co-sponsored by Colombia and the Netherlands, the event brings together at least 45 countries, including major exporters like Canada and Australia, though the largest producers—the US, China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia—are absent. The conference seeks to bypass the consensus-based delays of UN COPs to produce a report for COP30 and COP31, focusing on eliminating fossil fuel subsidies, planning production decline, and increasing renewable energy demand within a just transition framework.

In 2025, global electricity generation saw a significant shift toward low-carbon sources, with solar and wind reaching a combined 17.3% share of total generation. Solar was the fastest-growing source, adding 636 TWh and meeting 75% of global demand growth. Conversely, coal's share of global electricity fell below one-third for the first time on record to 33.0%, and renewable generation exceeded coal generation for the first time. Low-carbon sources (including nuclear) reached 42.6% of total generation, while the emissions intensity of electricity dropped by 2.7% in 2025, the largest annual decline in two decades.

In 2025, global electricity demand grew by 2.8% (849 TWh), all of which was met by low-carbon power generation, leading to a 0.2% decline in fossil fuel generation. Solar power was the primary driver, increasing by a record 636 TWh (30%) and meeting 75% of the net demand increase. For the first time in the modern era, renewables (33.8%) overtook coal (33.0%) in the global electricity mix. This shift was led by China and India, both of which saw declines in fossil generation in 2025. Additionally, battery storage is scaling rapidly, with costs falling 45% in 2025, enabling the shift of daytime solar generation to other hours.

The Santa Marta conference on fossil fuel phaseout shifted the global conversation from whether to transition to how to implement it, establishing three workstreams for national roadmaps, financial restructuring, and trade alternatives. While the summit is praised for providing civil society and Indigenous Peoples more direct access to decision-making, the author warns that the process risks becoming 'consultation theatre' unless participation is substantive and roadmaps include accountability mechanisms and the engagement of major emitters.