From OECD to emerging markets: fossil power’s global decline has begun

The report finds that by 2025, fossil fuel power generation fell below its peak in all 38 OECD member countries, driven by the rapid scaling of solar and wind energy. This trend is extending to emerging markets, with 2025 marking the first year this century (excluding 2020) that non-OECD fossil generation fell, specifically in China and India. The transition is increasingly driven by economic imperatives, as the levelized cost of solar and onshore wind is now 60% lower than combined cycle gas turbines.

• In 2025, every one of the 38 OECD member countries was below its fossil generation peak for the first time. While 36 countries peaked in 2019 or earlier, Türkiye peaked in 2021 and Colombia peaked in 2024.
• Since peaking in 2007, fossil fuel generation in the OECD has decreased by 19% (1,313 TWh), reducing its share of the electricity mix from 63% to 48% by 2025. This contributed to a 28% reduction in power sector emissions, totaling a decrease of 1,477 MtCO2e.
• Within the OECD, coal power has declined by 53% since 2007, while other fossil fuels (mainly oil) dropped by 63%. Conversely, gas generation grew by 46% in the same period, with 84% of that growth occurring in the United States due to a shift from coal to gas.
• The economic competitiveness of renewables is a primary driver of decarbonisation; in 2025, the average Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for solar ($39/MWh) and onshore wind ($40/MWh) was 60% lower than combined cycle gas turbines ($102/MWh). Hybrid solar-plus-storage projects reached an LCOE of $57/MWh.
• In 2025, non-OECD fossil generation fell for the first time this century outside of 2020, with declines in China (-0.9%) and India (-3.3%). In China, fossil generation dropped by 56 TWh as solar output increased by 40% (336 TWh). India's fossil power decreased by 52 TWh following a 24% (98 TWh) increase in renewable generation.
• Globally, 2025 was the first time renewables (33.8%, 10,730 TWh) overtook coal (33.0%, 10,476 TWh) in the power mix. Solar and wind alone met 99% of global electricity demand growth during the year.
• In Latin America and the Caribbean, fossil generation has decreased by 16% (121 TWh) since its 2015 peak, while solar and wind generation grew by 299 TWh by 2025.

APA

Suárez, W. (2026). From OECD to emerging markets: fossil power’s global decline has begun. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/04/Analysis-From-OECD-to-emerging-markets-fossil-powers-global-decline-has-begun.pdf

Chicago

Suárez, Wilmar. From OECD to emerging markets: fossil power’s global decline has begun. Ember, 2026. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/04/Analysis-From-OECD-to-emerging-markets-fossil-powers-global-decline-has-begun.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Suárez |first1=Wilmar |title=From OECD to emerging markets: fossil power’s global decline has begun |publisher=Ember |date=28 April 2026 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/04/Analysis-From-OECD-to-emerging-markets-fossil-powers-global-decline-has-begun.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{surez2026from, author = {Suárez, Wilmar}, title = {{From OECD to emerging markets: fossil power’s global decline has begun}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/04/Analysis-From-OECD-to-emerging-markets-fossil-powers-global-decline-has-begun.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }