From OECD to emerging markets: fossil power’s global decline has begun

This report by Ember analyses electricity generation data to demonstrate that fossil fuel power has reached a structural peak and is in permanent decline across all 38 OECD member countries as of 2025. It highlights how the rapid scaling of solar and wind is displacing thermal generation, a trend that is now extending into major emerging economies like China and India.

• For the first time in 2025, every single one of the 38 OECD member countries was below its peak for fossil fuel generation. The majority of these nations (36 out of 38) peaked in 2019 or earlier, while Türkiye peaked in 2021 and Colombia peaked in 2024.
• Since peaking in 2007, fossil fuel generation in the OECD has decreased by 19%, falling from 6,753 TWh to 5,440 TWh by 2025. This shift reduced the share of fossil fuels in the electricity mix from 63% to 48% and led to a 28% reduction in power sector emissions, totaling a decrease of 1,477 MtCO2e.
• The decline in OECD fossil fuels is characterized by a sharp drop in coal and other fossil fuels (like oil), while gas generation increased by 46% between 2007 and 2025. A significant portion (84%) of this gas growth occurred in the United States as it shifted from coal to gas.
• Economic factors are now primary drivers of decarbonisation, as solar and onshore wind are significantly cheaper than gas. In 2025, the average Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for solar ($39/MWh) and onshore wind ($40/MWh) was 60% lower than combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT) at $102/MWh.
• In 2025, a historic global shift occurred where renewables (33.8%) overtook coal (33.0%) in the power mix for the first time in over a century. Solar and wind alone met approximately 99% of global electricity demand growth during the year.
• Non-OECD fossil generation fell in 2025, marking the first such decline this century outside of 2020. China's fossil generation dropped by 0.9% (-56 TWh) and India's fell by 3.3% (-52 TWh), with both nations moving directly from coal to renewables rather than following a coal-to-gas pathway.
• In Latin America and the Caribbean, fossil fuel electricity generation has decreased by 16% (-121 TWh) since its 2015 peak, while solar and wind generation increased by 299 TWh by 2025.

APA

Suárez, W. (2026). From OECD to emerging markets: fossil power’s global decline has begun. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/04/Analysis-From-OECD-to-emerging-markets-fossil-powers-global-decline-has-begun.pdf

Chicago

Suárez, Wilmar. From OECD to emerging markets: fossil power’s global decline has begun. Ember, 2026. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/04/Analysis-From-OECD-to-emerging-markets-fossil-powers-global-decline-has-begun.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Suárez |first1=Wilmar |title=From OECD to emerging markets: fossil power’s global decline has begun |publisher=Ember |date=28 April 2026 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/04/Analysis-From-OECD-to-emerging-markets-fossil-powers-global-decline-has-begun.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{surez2026from, author = {Suárez, Wilmar}, title = {{From OECD to emerging markets: fossil power’s global decline has begun}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/04/Analysis-From-OECD-to-emerging-markets-fossil-powers-global-decline-has-begun.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }