Search Climate Insights Directory

The briefing examines the California Air Resources Board's (CARB) proposed amendments to the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), specifically a new limit on credits for crop-seed oil-based biofuels. While acknowledging the limit as a positive step, the authors argue that exemptions for alternative jet fuel and existing pathways, along with the use of the annual carbon intensity benchmark for surplus fuels, undermine the policy's effectiveness. The document recommends assigning fossil diesel carbon intensity to surplus fuels and implementing a comprehensive framework to monitor and limit global impacts on food markets and ecosystems.

The report argues that ecological disruption is an underappreciated security threat and advocates for the integration of strategic foresight tools—such as horizon scanning, futures wheels, and scenario planning—into national security architecture. It identifies land/sea-use change and global atmospheric/oceanic warming as the primary drivers of ecological instability. Through four plausible mid-century scenarios, the document illustrates how these drivers can lead to systemic collapses, such as Amazon dieback or the failure of the Lake Victoria Basin, resulting in famine, pandemics, and geopolitical conflict. The author recommends that security stakeholders shift their risk calculus to include ecological decline and prioritize locally-led, indigenous stewardship in resource management.

The document reports that tropical dry forests in the Americas are highly endangered, with only 40% of their original extent remaining and only 4.5% protected. Satellite data from 1982 to 2006 shows divergent productivity trends: forests in the Brazilian Caatinga and parts of Mexico are losing productivity, while those in the Llanos of Venezuela and Colombia, Northern Mexico, and the Chaco of Argentina and Bolivia are seeing increases. These shifts are linked to global warming's effect on rainfall and moisture. The text warns that productivity losses threaten carbon storage and water resources, while productivity gains may encourage further deforestation and agricultural intensification. It advocates for expanded protection beyond national parks, including economic incentives and sustainable land management.

The report analyzes the hydrological impacts of forest fires and deforestation in the Chiquitania region of Bolivia, specifically focusing on the Curichi Grande and Tucavaca watersheds. It details the development of a multi-criteria prioritization tool using Google Earth Engine (GEE) and a hydrological model using WEAP to assess water availability and soil retention. Field findings from 2021-2022 highlight critical water scarcity and quality issues in local communities following the 2019 and 2020 fires, while the report argues that integrating fire risk into water management is essential for sustainable regional development.

The report argues that the 'environment' pillar of One Health is often under-prioritized and proposes six key strategies—landscape immunity, wildlife trade regulation, preventive medicine, pathogen monitoring, sustainable livestock management, and behaviour change—to reduce zoonotic spillover and spillback. It emphasizes transdisciplinary collaboration, gender equity, and the inclusion of Indigenous Peoples and local communities to create resilient ecosystems and improve public health outcomes.

The briefing argues that the meat and dairy industry employs misleading narratives—such as claims regarding food security, growing demand, and emissions leakage—to distract from the need to reduce livestock numbers and methane emissions to meet Paris Agreement goals.

The project establishes a Nitrogen, Society, and Environment Network (Nnet) to study the impacts of human activity on the nitrogen cycle across various Latin American ecosystems. It integrates empirical measurements of biological nitrogen fixation, atmospheric deposition, and fertilizer use with regional modeling to inform policy and environmental management.

The project aims to create a regional understanding of the nitrogen cycle in Latin America by measuring biological nitrogen fixation, atmospheric deposition, and the impacts of land-use changes. Initial findings include high nitrogen pollution in Venezuelan rivers, low biological nitrogen fixation in Chilean forests affected by copper mining, and the influence of urban and industrial areas on NOx concentrations in São Paulo. The initiative seeks to provide guidelines for policymakers to manage nitrogen and minimize environmental degradation.

The study finds that the ABC Recuperação credit line has had modest effects on pasture recovery in the Cerrado, with most severely degraded areas remaining unchanged. While some pasture was converted to crops, the program's contribution to the ABC Plan's 2020 target of recovering 15 million hectares of degraded pasture was estimated at only 0.9% to 2.5%. The report highlights that technical assistance is a critical factor for success and recommends improved monitoring and the integration of credit with risk management instruments.

An evaluation of the ABC Recuperação credit line in the Cerrado biome finds that the program has had modest effects on pasture recovery and marginal impacts on land use. The analysis reveals that credit provision did not significantly improve pasture quality, and some areas were converted from native vegetation to agricultural use before credit was obtained. However, the use of technical assistance was linked to a significant reduction in degraded pasture area. The report recommends strengthening monitoring, improving pre-credit evaluations to prevent funding recently deforested areas, and combining credit with technical assistance and risk mitigation tools.

The study finds that the ABC Recuperação credit line has had modest effects on pasture recovery, with most areas remaining unchanged and severely degraded pastures showing little improvement. While some pasture was converted to agriculture, the program's contribution to the Plano ABC goal of recovering 15 million hectares by 2020 was estimated at a maximum of 2.5%. Technical assistance was identified as a critical factor for success, particularly for severely degraded areas. The report also notes that some areas were deforested immediately prior to receiving credit, suggesting a need for better ex-ante monitoring and the integration of risk management tools.

The executive summary evaluates the ABC Recuperação credit program in the Cerrado, finding that it has had very modest impacts on pasture quality and land use. The study highlights that the credit line contributed to at most 2.5% of the 2020 recovery goal and notes a concerning trend where some areas were converted from native vegetation to pasture before receiving credit. It recommends strengthening post-credit monitoring, improving pre-credit evaluations, and integrating technical assistance to enhance environmental outcomes.

The report examines how the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) uses financial regulation to curb deforestation, particularly in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes. It details the BCB's 'Agenda BC# Sustainability', which integrates social, environmental, and climate risks into the national financial system. A central pillar of this strategy is the reform of rural credit, where the BCB has implemented restrictions on financing for properties with illegal deforestation, lack of environmental registration (CAR), or those located in protected areas. The document also highlights the role of the 'Bureau de Crédito Rural' and the 'Sicor' system in monitoring compliance in real-time.

The report examines how the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) is leveraging its regulatory authority to align the national financial system with environmental goals. It details the BCB's 'BC# Sustainability Agenda', which introduces risk management requirements for social, environmental, and climate risks, and mandates disclosures based on TCFD recommendations. A significant portion of the analysis focuses on rural credit, where the BCB has implemented restrictions on financing for properties that violate the Forest Code or are located in protected areas. The report highlights the role of the Rural Environmental Registry (CAR) and the Rural Credit Bureau (SICOR) in monitoring compliance and suggests further integration of remote sensing data to enhance oversight.

The study finds that human-induced climate change, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, made the extreme rainfall events in Rio Grande do Sul more than twice as likely and increased their intensity by 6-9%. The El Niño Southern Oscillation also played a significant role, increasing the likelihood of such events by a factor of 2-5. The floods affected over 90% of the state, causing 169 deaths and displacing over 580,000 people, with impacts exacerbated by poverty, failing flood protection infrastructure in Porto Alegre, and inconsistent enforcement of environmental protection laws.

The document defines the 'Agri-Food Deforestation and Conversion Free Sourcing' criteria for entities in the food value chain. It mandates a cut-off date of 31 December 2020, requiring that sourcing be free from deforestation and natural ecosystem conversion. The criteria specify different traceability and due diligence requirements based on the risk classification of the origin, with a commitment to full geolocation for all commodities by 2030. It also integrates human rights safeguards and annual verification processes to ensure climate integrity for certified entities.

The document outlines the technical requirements for agri-food entities to be certified as deforestation and conversion free (DCF). It establishes a cut-off date of 31 December 2020, mandates geolocation traceability for high-risk origins and specific commodities, and requires rigorous due diligence and annual verification. The criteria align with the EU Deforestation-Free Products Regulation (EUDR) and the Accountability Framework Initiative (AFi), extending protections to all natural ecosystems beyond forests.

The Agri-Food DCF Sourcing Criteria establish a framework for certifying agri-food entities that source commodities from land not subject to deforestation or natural ecosystem conversion after December 31, 2020. The criteria apply to supply chain actors—such as traders, processors, and retailers—generating at least 50% of their revenue from agri-food supply chains. Compliance requires that 90% of an entity's net procurement spend be compliant, with individual commodities accounting for 1% or more of spend included in the scope. Traceability requirements vary by risk: high-risk countries and specific commodities (cattle, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, pulp and paper, and soy) require geolocation to the original production land plot, while low-risk origins may only require country-of-origin tracing until January 1, 2030. Mass-balance chains of custody are prohibited. Certification is valid for five years, subject to annual verifications by approved verifiers who sample at least 10% of procured volume and suppliers.

The document examines the systemic failures in managing legal deforestation in Brazil's Matopiba region, highlighting the inefficiency of the Sinaflor system and the lack of transparency in ASV data. It argues that the current governance framework allows for significant underreporting of legal land conversion, which undermines the goal of zero deforestation by 2030 in the Cerrado biome.

The Clean Air Task Force and Pacific Environment argue that proposed LCFS amendments, including strengthened carbon intensity targets and the inclusion of intrastate aviation fuel, risk driving up demand for crop-based biofuels. They warn this could lead to increased greenhouse gas emissions from land use changes and disruptions to food markets. The authors recommend volume limits on first-generation vegetable oil-based fuels, annual market impact assessments, and extending sustainability requirements to used cooking oil and waste oils.