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The report argues that Canada's cost-optimal path to net zero requires a significant shift from gas to electricity for building heat. It warns that continued expansion of gas networks and a 'business-as-usual' approach to utility regulation create financial risks for ratepayers and threaten climate goals. The authors recommend that provincial governments legislate net zero targets, end the default expansion of gas infrastructure, and provide clear energy roadmaps to guide regulators and utilities.

The report examines the current state of Energy Systems Integration (ESI) in Canada, focusing on five key technologies: electric vehicles, heat pumps, demand response, distributed generation, and hydrogen. It argues that while Canada has successfully decarbonized its electricity grid, further progress requires coordinating energy vectors and scales. The author identifies significant barriers, including fragmented governance, a lack of integrated modeling, and a policy landscape dominated by voluntary 'soft' incentives rather than systemic mandates. The document recommends replacing sectoral subsidies with market reforms that remunerate grid flexibility and implementing integrated modeling platforms to guide coordinated infrastructure investments.

The document outlines a strategy for Canada to achieve a net-zero electricity sector by 2050, noting a sharp divide between 'clean' provinces (e.g., Quebec, Ontario) and those reliant on fossil fuels (e.g., Alberta, Saskatchewan). It proposes five key technical trajectories: increasing variable renewable energy, securing clean firm capacity, enhancing interprovincial transmission, improving demand flexibility, and deploying long-duration storage. The author argues that while the economic cost of wind and solar has plummeted, the primary barriers are now financial uncertainty regarding carbon pricing and the technical need for firm capacity and seasonal storage to manage intermittency.

The report details the use of the North American TIMES Energy Model (NATEM) to identify the most cost-effective technology combinations for decarbonizing Canada's building sector. It establishes a core 'Optimal NZ50' scenario targeting 440 Mt of emissions in 2030 and 10 Mt by 2050, while outlining seven sensitivity analyses covering heat pump costs, retrofit levels, and hydrogen integration. The modelling accounts for regional differences across 13 jurisdictions, incorporating detailed load curves, climate change temperature forecasts, and a comprehensive database of over 7,000 technologies.

The document distinguishes between 'safe bets'—commercially available solutions with few constraints—and 'wild cards'—solutions with uncertain prospects. It asserts that safe bets will drive most reductions by 2030, while wild cards will increase in importance by 2050.

The document distinguishes between 'safe bets'—technologies available commercially without major implementation constraints—and 'risky bets'—solutions with uncertain prospects that could still be significant for carbon neutrality. It notes that safe bets provide the majority of reductions by 2030, while risky bets increase in importance by 2050.

The document outlines three distinct net-zero energy system pathways for Canada: a fossil fuel system reliant on negative emissions, a biofuel-dominant system, and an electrification and hydrogen-based system. It identifies internal factors within Canada's control, such as domestic policy and infrastructure, and external factors like global market trends and technological innovation that will influence the evolution of these systems. Each pathway is analyzed through its specific upsides, downsides, and implementation barriers, ranging from the risk of delaying structural economic change in fossil fuel systems to the massive land-use footprints required for biofuels and electrification.

The document evaluates three potential energy systems for Canada's transition to carbon neutrality: one based on fossil fuels with negative emissions, one based on second-generation biofuels, and one based on electrification and hydrogen. It identifies that while Canada possesses assets like land and infrastructure, the choice of system depends on factors such as technological viability, social justice, and international market trends.

The report examines the transition of the European basic materials sector (cement, steel, paper, aluminium, chemicals) toward carbon neutrality by 2050. It identifies that these sectors account for approximately 16% of European GHG emissions. Through analysis of Hungary, Poland, and Spain, the document highlights a prevalence of short-term policy focuses on carbon leakage and energy costs over long-term structural transformation. It proposes a policy package consisting of carbon pricing mechanisms (Border Tax Adjustments or Inclusion of Consumption), low-emission and circularity standards, and Contracts for Differences (CCfDs) to incentivise breakthrough technologies and ensure a cost-competitive supply of low-carbon electricity.

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 introduced "direct pay" (or "elective pay"), allowing tax-exempt entities—such as nonprofits, state and local governments, and tribal governments—to receive direct payments from the IRS in lieu of tax credits for clean energy investments. Eligible credits include a 30% base credit for solar and battery storage, credits for commercial electric vehicles up to $40,000, and credits for alternative fuel infrastructure. Additional bonuses are available for projects in "energy communities," those using "domestic content," or those qualifying for the Low-Income Community Tax Credit. The process involves pre-registering with the IRS and filing specific tax forms, with a total timeline ranging from four to 18 months.

Ember argues that the UK can achieve clean power by 2030 to combat inflation and energy price volatility. The organization identifies planning delays as a primary barrier and criticizes the economic efficiency and sustainability of biomass and BECCS subsidies.

Energy Innovation uses the California Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) to propose a 'Deeper Decarbonization Scenario' for California. This pathway prioritizes mature technologies—such as electric vehicles, renewable energy, and electric appliances—to achieve emissions reductions of 47 percent below 1990 levels by 2030, compared to the state's current Draft Scoping Plan which relies on uncertain carbon dioxide removal. The proposed scenario includes a 100 percent zero-emission vehicle sales standard for cars and light-duty trucks by 2030, 100 percent electrification of new appliances by 2030, and a carbon neutral electricity system by 2035. These actions are estimated to add $28 billion to the state's economy and create nearly 170,000 new jobs by 2030, while preventing over 1,300 deaths and 26,600 asthma attacks annually by 2030.

Friends of the Earth International asserts that all forms of hydrogen—regardless of their color classification—are costly and inefficient, serving as a distraction from necessary systemic changes to address the climate crisis. The document claims that hydrogen deployment primarily benefits the fossil fuel industry, specifically the gas sector, and risks perpetuating environmental and social destruction in places like Colombia and Mozambique.

Friends of the Earth International argues that hydrogen energy is a 'false solution' promoted by the fossil fuel industry to maintain business as usual and distract from the urgent emission cuts required to address the climate crisis.

The document examines the transition from natural gas to hydrogen in gas turbines, detailing the physical differences between the fuels and the resulting engineering requirements. It highlights that while low-percentage hydrogen blends (~20% or less) can often be used with minimal modifications, higher blends require significant changes to combustion systems to manage NOx emissions and prevent flashback. The paper reviews the current capabilities and development roadmaps of major OEMs, including Ansaldo Energia, General Electric, Mitsubishi Hitachi Power Systems, and Siemens, most of whom target 100% hydrogen capability by 2030.

Global Witness reports that BASF's subsidiary, Wintershall Dea, continued extracting and transporting Russian gas in 2022 despite BASF's public commitment to wind down non-food businesses in Russia. The brief estimates that Russian gas transported by Wintershall across Germany in early 2022 was worth over €14 billion and that the subsidiary earned €400 million from Siberian fields between January and March 2022. It highlights BASF CEO Martin Brudermüller's lobbying to maintain these supplies to avoid economic crisis, while noting that Wintershall's partnership with Gazprom has increased Russia's leverage over Germany's energy security.

The report examines the relationship between ENTSOG, a body that influences EU gas infrastructure funding, and GIE, a gas industry lobby group. It highlights significant membership overlap and a lack of transparency regarding meetings and conflict-of-interest policies. Global Witness asserts that this relationship has led to billions in EU subsidies flowing to industry-favoured projects, some of which are failing, while contradicting the EU's climate targets.

Global Witness argues that switching European home heating from fossil gas to hydrogen would be unaffordable for consumers and potentially cost €240 billion in infrastructure expenses. Based on analysis by Element Energy, the report claims hydrogen energy could cost more than double the price of gas, potentially exacerbating energy poverty for up to 80 million Europeans. The document further alleges that gas companies and distribution system operators (DSOs) are lobbying the European Commission to 'mutualize' these costs, meaning all gas users—including those not using hydrogen—would pay for the new infrastructure. Global Witness recommends that the EU limit hydrogen use to heavy industry and transport, instead prioritizing heat pumps and district heating for residential use.

The document details Spain's energy taxation framework, highlighting specific tax reductions and exemptions for fossil fuels in agriculture, transport, and industry. It outlines the transition toward climate neutrality by 2050 through the prohibition of new hydrocarbon exploration and the promotion of renewable gases and energy efficiency programs funded via the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan.

Reclaim Finance analyzes the EU's decision to include gas and nuclear energy in its green taxonomy. The report argues that the criteria for gas—such as the 270 gCO2e/kWh emission threshold and the 2030 construction deadline—are incompatible with the 1.5°C goal and risk creating stranded assets. Regarding nuclear energy, the report contends that long construction times and the lack of operational geological waste storage by 2050 undermine its status as a 'transitional' activity, while noting that only France and Finland currently have advanced storage projects.