Trajectoires techniques pour aligner les secteurs de l’électricité canadiens avec la carboneutralité

The document outlines a strategy for Canada to achieve a net-zero electricity sector by 2050, noting a sharp divide between 'clean' provinces (e.g., Quebec, Ontario) and those reliant on fossil fuels (e.g., Alberta, Saskatchewan). It proposes five key technical trajectories: increasing variable renewable energy, securing clean firm capacity, enhancing interprovincial transmission, improving demand flexibility, and deploying long-duration storage. The author argues that while the economic cost of wind and solar has plummeted, the primary barriers are now financial uncertainty regarding carbon pricing and the technical need for firm capacity and seasonal storage to manage intermittency.

• Canada's electricity sector exhibits significant regional heterogeneity; while provinces like British Columbia, Manitoba, Quebec, Newfoundland and Labrador, and Ontario are considered 'clean' with emissions between 0 and 2 g/kWh, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick rely heavily on fossil fuels, with emissions ranging from 290 to 720 g/kWh.
• Variable renewable energy (wind and solar) is now highly economic, with long-term contracts in Alberta reaching below 30 CA$/MWh for wind and 50 CA$/MWh for solar. The primary obstacle to deployment is no longer the cost of technology but financial risk and uncertainty regarding future carbon pricing policies.
• To manage the intermittency of renewables, Canada requires 'clean firm' capacity. This can be achieved by maintaining existing hydro and nuclear assets, converting fossil fuel plants to run on hydrogen (blue or green), or deploying new technologies like geothermal and carbon capture, though the latter depend on future cost reductions and innovation.
• Interprovincial transmission offers a high-value opportunity to optimize regional complementarities, such as linking the high wind and solar potential of the Prairies with the hydroelectric storage capacity of other provinces, though this is hindered by political desires for local autonomy and differing regulatory markets.
• Increasing demand flexibility is essential for integrating variable renewables. While time-of-use pricing is a tool, the author suggests that direct load control—where utilities manage the timing of high-energy tasks like electric vehicle charging—may be more effective than relying on consumer reactions to complex price signals.
• Short-duration lithium-ion batteries are effective for daily cycles (such as the 'duck curve' effect), but Canada's high latitude and wind-heavy energy mix create seasonal and multi-day gaps that require long-duration storage, such as compressed air or hydroelectric reservoirs.

APA

Shaffer, B. (n.d.). Trajectoires techniques pour aligner les secteurs de l’électricité canadiens avec la carboneutralité. Canadian Climate Institute. https://choixclimatiques.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ICCC-Trajectoires-techniques-pour-aligner-les-secteurs-de-l_electricite-canadiens-avec-la-carboneutralite-par-Blake-Shaffer.pdf

Chicago

Shaffer, Blake. Trajectoires techniques pour aligner les secteurs de l’électricité canadiens avec la carboneutralité. Canadian Climate Institute, n.d. https://choixclimatiques.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ICCC-Trajectoires-techniques-pour-aligner-les-secteurs-de-l_electricite-canadiens-avec-la-carboneutralite-par-Blake-Shaffer.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Shaffer |first1=Blake |title=Trajectoires techniques pour aligner les secteurs de l’électricité canadiens avec la carboneutralité |publisher=Canadian Climate Institute |url=https://choixclimatiques.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ICCC-Trajectoires-techniques-pour-aligner-les-secteurs-de-l_electricite-canadiens-avec-la-carboneutralite-par-Blake-Shaffer.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{shafferndtrajectoires, author = {Shaffer, Blake}, title = {{Trajectoires techniques pour aligner les secteurs de l’électricité canadiens avec la carboneutralité}}, institution = {Canadian Climate Institute}, url = {https://choixclimatiques.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ICCC-Trajectoires-techniques-pour-aligner-les-secteurs-de-l_electricite-canadiens-avec-la-carboneutralite-par-Blake-Shaffer.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }