The Future of Building Heat and the Natural Gas Network in a Net Zero Canada

The report details the use of the North American TIMES Energy Model (NATEM) to identify the most cost-effective technology combinations for decarbonizing Canada's building sector. It establishes a core 'Optimal NZ50' scenario targeting 440 Mt of emissions in 2030 and 10 Mt by 2050, while outlining seven sensitivity analyses covering heat pump costs, retrofit levels, and hydrogen integration. The modelling accounts for regional differences across 13 jurisdictions, incorporating detailed load curves, climate change temperature forecasts, and a comprehensive database of over 7,000 technologies.

• The study is centered on the 'Optimal NZ50' scenario, which aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 through a trajectory that targets 440 Mt of GHG emissions in 2030 and a remaining 10 Mt in 2050.
• The analysis employs the North American TIMES Energy Model (NATEM), an economy-wide optimization tool that identifies the least-cost technology mix to meet energy demands across 13 Canadian jurisdictions.
• To accurately assess the impact of building electrification on the electricity grid, the model introduces two novel 'seasons' to simulate three-day cold snaps and three-day heat waves, supplementing the standard four seasons.
• The model assumes that while large-scale hydrogen transport would require new transmission pipelines, the existing gas distribution network can be leveraged for hydrogen delivery to buildings and industry.
• The research incorporates seven specific sensitivity analyses to test the robustness of the optimal solution, focusing on parameters such as heat pump investment costs, deep retrofit penetration, and hydrogen blending ratios in natural gas.
• The modelling of building heat includes a diverse range of technologies, including biomass, standard electricity, natural gas, propane, oil, hydrogen, and various heat pump configurations (electric or gas back-up).

APA

Canadian Climate Institute (n.d.). The Future of Building Heat and the Natural Gas Network in a Net Zero Canada. https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Technical-Report%E2%80%94The-Future-Of-Building-Heat-Natural-Gas-Net-Zero.pdf

Chicago

Canadian Climate Institute. The Future of Building Heat and the Natural Gas Network in a Net Zero Canada. n.d. https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Technical-Report%E2%80%94The-Future-Of-Building-Heat-Natural-Gas-Net-Zero.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Canadian Climate Institute |title=The Future of Building Heat and the Natural Gas Network in a Net Zero Canada |url=https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Technical-Report%E2%80%94The-Future-Of-Building-Heat-Natural-Gas-Net-Zero.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{canadianclimateinstitutendfuture, author = {{Canadian Climate Institute}}, title = {{The Future of Building Heat and the Natural Gas Network in a Net Zero Canada}}, institution = {Canadian Climate Institute}, url = {https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Technical-Report%E2%80%94The-Future-Of-Building-Heat-Natural-Gas-Net-Zero.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }