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Why India's "build now, decarbonize later" approach to achieving net zero in the steel industry will fail
India is pursuing a "build now, decarbonize later" strategy in its steel industry, focusing on expanding capacity through emissions-intensive blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) routes. This approach risks creating stranded assets valued between US$124187 billion and locking in high emissions due to a young fleet of blast furnaces. While the government has introduced roadmaps for green steel and energy efficiency, the document argues that deep decarbonization requires a fundamental shift away from coal toward green hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI) and increased scrap-based secondary production.
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Document type: Research paper
Budgeting for Net Zero
The report evaluates the financial viability of five clean energy technologies in India: battery energy storage systems (BESSs), solar photovoltaic (PV), electric vehicles (EVs), offshore wind, and green hydrogen (GH2). While current subsidies are sufficient for solar PV and BESSs, significant funding gaps remain for offshore wind and green hydrogen. The analysis suggests that while the government does not need to fund the entire cost gap due to potential private sector catalysis, international climate finance and policy reforms are essential to meet 2030 goals.
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Document type: Report
Financing Green Hydrogen-based Ironmaking
The document examines the feasibility of establishing green hydrogen-based ironmaking in developing nations to export green iron to developed markets. It analyzes technical and market hurdles, such as clean electricity supply and the 'green premium', while proposing commercial structures and financing requirements involving debt and equity to make such projects bankable.
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Document type: Research paper
ENERGY PARKS
The document introduces energy parks as a strategy to meet rising electricity demand by integrating wind, solar, and storage with co-located loads like hydrogen electrolyzers and data centers. It outlines the evolution from simple solar farms to complex hybrids and identifies key barriers, including interconnection queues and utility monopolies. The authors propose a 'digital resource' paradigm shift and new state legal frameworks to enable these projects.
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Document type: Report
Budgeting for Net Zero
The document provides a technical framework for calculating the 'cost gap'—the marginal cost differential between clean energy technologies and their conventional benchmarks—for Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), offshore wind, solar PV, electric vehicles (EVs), and green hydrogen in India. It outlines the specific input parameters, learning rates, and benchmarks used for each technology. Furthermore, it describes the application of the Green Economy Model (GEM), a system dynamics tool, to simulate how varying levels of public funding (e.g., 30% or 100% of the cost gap) influence India's GDP, employment, and emissions through feedback loops involving energy spending, air pollution, and labor productivity.
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Document type: Report
Budgeting for Net Zero
The report analyzes the cost gaps for battery energy storage systems (BESSs), offshore wind, solar PV, electric vehicles (EVs), and green hydrogen (GH2) in India. It finds that while current subsidies are sufficient for solar PV and BESSs, significant additional support is needed for offshore wind, EVs, and GH2. Macroeconomic modeling suggests that bridging these gaps generally boosts GDP and employment, except for GH2, which remains cost-uncompetitive until after 2050.
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Document type: Report
Heavy Industries Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development
The document examines the transition of energy-intensive heavy industries toward net-zero emissions, highlighting how global trade dynamics and national policies in developed economies impact emerging markets. It identifies four primary technological levers for decarbonization: energy efficiency, alternative fuel use/electrification, material efficiency, and carbon capture and storage. The author argues that while developing countries with abundant renewables can become new green industrial hubs, they face significant risks from carbon border measures, green protectionism, and reduced access to secondary materials. The briefing emphasizes the need for international coordination on standards, technology transfer, and finance to ensure a just transition for emerging and developing economies.
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Document type: Briefing
To Connect or Not to Connect: Demystifying Hydrogen Power Procurement Options, Risks, and Opportunities
The report examines four power procurement archetypes for green hydrogen—Behind-the-Meter (BTM), Virtual Power Purchase Agreements (vPPAs), Offsite Physical PPAs, and Hybrid systems—analyzing how each manages risks related to weather variability, logistic complexity, and grid volatility. It emphasizes that the cost of power is the primary driver of hydrogen production economics and highlights the challenges of maintaining hourly matching for tax credit compliance under the Inflation Reduction Act's 45V credit. To mitigate these risks, the report suggests solutions such as hydrogen-specific insurance, flexible offtake agreements, phased construction, and the development of spot hourly Energy Attribute Credit (EAC) markets.
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Document type: Report
The Next Chapter for US Green Industrial Strategy
The briefing outlines a three-part agenda for the next US administration to maintain the momentum of its green industrial strategy. It emphasizes the need to bridge the gap between initial investment and long-term economic stability by streamlining permitting, diversifying supply chains to reduce reliance on China, and ensuring that clean energy benefits reach low-income and legacy industrial communities. The author advocates for a 'private-sector-led, government-enabled' framework supported by strategic governance mechanisms to ensure the US remains a global leader in cleantech innovation and manufacturing.
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Document type: Briefing
NO CLEAR EXIT: Japan’s resistance to a real coal phaseout
Japan is the only G7 country without a clear coal phaseout deadline, with coal accounting for nearly one-third of its electricity generation as of 2023. The Japanese government is promoting 'next-generation' technologies, specifically carbon capture and storage (CCS) and ammonia co-firing, which the report characterizes as 'false solutions' due to their high cost and limited effectiveness. These policies are supported by market mechanisms like the Capacity Market and the Long-Term Decarbonization Power Source Auction, which incentivize the continued operation of coal plants. Furthermore, Japan's three megabanks—Mizuho, MUFG, and SMBC—provided US$23.5 billion in coal financing between 2021 and 2023, often utilizing loopholes that exclude only new clients. The report also highlights the Asia Zero Emission Community (AZEC) initiative, noting that 35% of its 158 agreements involve fossil fuels, potentially locking Southeast Asian nations into outdated energy systems.
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Document type: Report
Nigeria Energy Transition & Investment Plan Update
The Nigeria Energy Transition & Investment Plan Update (ETIP 2.0) outlines a pathway to net-zero emissions by 2060, requiring a total installed power capacity of 277 GW and an additional capital investment of approximately $500 billion USD above business-as-usual levels. The plan emphasizes a massive shift toward solar PV, which is projected to reach 209 GW by 2050, and the phasing out of diesel decentralized generators by 2030. In the transport sector, the plan envisions a transition where electric vehicles make up at least 80% of the fleet by 2050, while the cooking sector aims for universal access by 2030, eventually transitioning to e-cooking. Despite the high upfront costs, the transition is projected to result in fuel savings of $686 billion USD. Key barriers identified include high initial costs for EVs and e-cooking, unreliable grid supply, and a skills gap in green technologies.
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Document type: Report
Implementación de transiciones justas
South Africa is transitioning from a coal-dependent economy to a low-carbon one, utilizing frameworks like the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP). However, the implementation phase reveals a significant disconnect between national/international actors—who prioritize emission reductions and energy security—and local communities, who prioritize employment, basic services, and poverty alleviation. Key barriers include insufficient subnational institutional capacity, rigid financial mechanisms unsuitable for high-risk systemic change, and a lack of transparency in selecting project beneficiaries. The document specifically highlights green hydrogen as a potential new value chain, though its viability is currently hindered by high costs and the perception of just transition elements as additional financial burdens rather than core objectives.
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Document type: Briefing
Implementing just transitions
South Africa is transitioning from just transition planning to implementation, facing a misalignment between national ambitions and local priorities. Key obstacles include limited subnational institutional capacity, inadequate financing mechanisms for transformative projects, and a lack of transparent decision-making in resource allocation. The document emphasizes that failing to address these gaps and local developmental needs may undermine public support for the energy transition.
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Document type: Policy brief
Mengimplementasikan transisi berkeadilan
The document examines South Africa's transition from coal, noting that while the country is a global leader in planning, it faces significant implementation hurdles. Key issues include a misalignment between the low ambitions of national government and foreign funders versus the high expectations of local communities and unions. The brief identifies limited local institutional capacity and inadequate conventional financing as major barriers. It specifically discusses green hydrogen projects, where social goals are often treated as secondary to cost and technical feasibility. The authors argue that transparent decision-making and addressing local priorities—such as basic services and food security—are essential to maintain public legitimacy and ensure the transition's success.
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Document type: Policy brief
The clean flexibility COP?
The report evaluates the COP29 Presidency's goals to achieve 1,500 GW of energy storage and add 25 million km of grid infrastructure by 2030. It concludes that the storage goal is highly achievable due to surging battery manufacturing capacity and falling prices, while the grid goal requires a 50% increase in the current build rate and faces significant regulatory and supply chain hurdles. The potential for green hydrogen to provide flexibility is noted, though current deployment rates remain low despite high numbers of announced projects.
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Document type: Report
Clean flexibility is the brain managing the clean power system
The report argues that 'clean flexibility' acts as the 'brain' of a clean power system, balancing supply and demand in real time to ensure electricity is clean every hour. It categorizes nine flexibility tools into four functional areas: Store (pumped hydro, batteries, long-duration energy storage, and green hydrogen), Shift (peak shaving and smart electrification), Share (grids and interconnectors), and Supply (improving fossil plant flexibility and smarter wind/solar operation). The document emphasizes that while some tools are basic and cheap, others are more complex and costly, and the optimal mix depends on the specific power system. It concludes by urging COP29 to expand its focus beyond storage, grids, and hydrogen to include the full portfolio of flexibility solutions.
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Document type: Report
Brazil Climate and Ecological Transformation Investment Platform (BIP) - Strengthening Brazil’s climate finance and transition capacities
The proposal seeks USD 999,998.93 to create a centralized Secretariat for the Brazil Climate and Ecological Transformation Investment Platform (BIP), hosted by the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES). The BIP aims to bridge the gap between climate-positive projects and investors to help Brazil meet its NDC target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 53.1% by 2030. The project focuses on three priority areas: Nature-based Climate Solutions, Industry and Mobility, and Energy. Key activities include developing a project pipeline, creating innovative financial mechanisms, and establishing ICT infrastructure to facilitate public-private collaboration.
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Document type: Report
Industrialisation in Africa: Leading Countries and Reasons for Their Success
The document examines industrialisation trends in Africa, identifying South Africa, Morocco, and Egypt as leaders while highlighting the challenges of commodity dependence and premature deindustrialisation. It analyzes specific success stories in Ethiopia's textiles, Rwanda's ICT, and Ghana's automotive sectors, and argues for structuralist policies and increased EU support for green industries and climate finance to accelerate the transition.
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Document type: Research paper
Navigating Climate Action: Assessing the Economic Impacts and Trade-offs of a Shipping Carbon Tax for African States
The report uses a GTAP-E model to find that a USD 100/t carbon levy would generally reduce GDP and household incomes across Africa, increase global food prices, and reduce the supply of maritime services. It highlights that African importers already face disproportionately high freight rates, which a carbon tax would exacerbate. The authors recommend that the IMO implement a redistribution mechanism based on climate vulnerability and historical emissions, providing direct grants for out-of-sector projects like green hydrogen and resilient agriculture.
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Document type: Report
The Role of Hydrogen in the Medium- and Heavy-Duty Trucking Sectors
The report argues that hydrogen fuel cell electric trucks (FCETs) are best suited for long-haul heavy-duty trucking due to superior payload capacity, range, and refueling speeds compared to battery electric trucks (BETs). However, adoption is currently stymied by a 'chicken-and-egg' infrastructure problem and high fuel costs, with public hydrogen in California costing approximately $25/kg compared to a diesel-competitive price of roughly $6.50/kg. While California is the primary driver of adoption due to regulations like the Advanced Clean Fleet and Advanced Clean Trucks rules, projections from the California Air Resources Board (CARB) suggest slow penetration unless significant interventions occur. The report recommends prioritizing the reduction of pump prices—even if it requires accepting higher carbon intensity in the short term—and streamlining infrastructure permitting to enable a transition away from diesel by 2030.
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Document type: Report