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The document criticizes Nippon Steel and Cleveland-Cliffs for investing in coal-fired infrastructure despite public commitments to green steel. It highlights a $350 million renovation of a blast furnace at Gary Works by Nippon Steel and the refurbishment of a 73-year-old furnace by Cleveland-Cliffs in Middletown, Ohio, despite the latter receiving a $500 million Inflation Reduction Act grant for decarbonization. The author suggests that automotive companies and international markets, particularly in Europe, should use their purchasing power to pressure steelmakers to transition away from coal.

The author contends that current unilateral green industrial strategies and carbon border adjustments create an inequitable trade environment that disadvantages developing countries. To resolve this, the paper proposes 'transition compacts': plurilateral, sector-specific agreements that link market access to verified emissions performance while making equity provisions, such as technology transfer and investment, legally binding rather than aspirational. Using examples like the failed Global Arrangement on Sustainable Steel and Aluminium (GASSA) and the Agreement on Climate Change, Trade and Sustainability (ACCTS), the text suggests that these compacts should be designed to be resilient to the withdrawal of major powers and focused on cooperative management of the energy transition.

The report examines the potential for the European Union to use local content requirements (LCRs) in public procurement to drive decarbonization and industrial resilience. It analyzes LCR frameworks in China, India, and Canada, noting that while these tools can create predictable demand for low-carbon industries, they risk increasing costs, reducing competition, and triggering trade retaliation. The authors argue that LCRs should only be used in strategic sectors where specific preconditions—such as high market leverage and strong climate gains—are met, and must be tied to ambitious, performance-based environmental criteria rather than origin alone. The report specifically evaluates the steel, cement, and clean technology sectors, concluding that while LCRs can support resilience, they must be carefully designed to avoid protecting high-emission producers or hindering the import of essential green intermediate goods.

The report asserts that metallurgical coal demand is plateauing as the steel industry shifts toward low-carbon technologies like electric arc furnaces (EAFs) and green hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI). While some governments and financial institutions remain bullish on long-term growth, particularly in Asia, the document predicts a 4.8% drop in met coal consumption between 2025 and 2030. It highlights the risk of stranded assets, noting that 145 companies are planning expansions that could increase global capacity by 580 million tonnes per year. The report recommends scrapping subsidies for traditional steel, lowering industrial electricity prices, and using public procurement to prioritise green steel to accelerate the transition.

The report finds that by 2030, private sector demand for near-zero emissions steel in the analyzed Asia-Pacific countries will reach 6.1 million tons, with an additional 11.5 million tons possible through aligned public procurement. However, the projected clean steel supply pipeline of 2.5 million tons is insufficient to meet this demand, creating a gap that could be filled by new projects or green iron imports from Australia. Scaling this market requires overcoming barriers such as unclear product standards and price premiums through government incentives and demand aggregation mechanisms.

The author contends that American steel producers, such as U.S. Steel and Cleveland-Cliffs, are falling behind Asian competitors by abandoning decarbonization plans in favor of coal-intensive production. This failure to adapt to demands for greener steel, exemplified by the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, threatens U.S. market access and causes billions in annual health damages. The text highlights that while a Korean company, Hyundai, is investing $6 billion in low-carbon steel in Louisiana, major U.S. firms continue to rely on polluting methods despite minimal cost increases for end-products like vehicles.

The report examines the challenges of Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs), noting their tendency to prioritize donor agendas and techno-economic frameworks over local social needs. It proposes South-South cooperation (SSC) as a vital complement to address these gaps through peer learning and context-specific solutions. Using South Africa and Colombia as case studies, the document identifies specific areas for collaboration, including mine closure, green industrialization, and the integration of peace-building experiences into transition planning.

RMI's Sustainable Steel Buyers Platform (SSBP) conducted its first North American request for proposal (RFP), aggregating demand from nine buyers seeking over one million tons of near-zero emission (NZE) steel. The process yielded 13 commercial-scale project proposals targeting production by the early 2030s, featuring a mix of hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI), novel ironmaking pathways (electrochemical, bio-based, and sodium-based), and electric arc furnace (EAF) retrofits. The findings highlight that binding multi-year, take-or-pay agreements and 'book and claim' mechanisms are critical for project bankability and linking buyer premiums to first-of-a-kind projects.

The report evaluates CCUS as a primary decarbonization lever for India's steel sector, specifically targeting the emission-intensive BF-BOF route. It identifies single-point pre-combustion capture with gas conditioning as the most cost-effective technical approach, with a net CO2 abatement cost of USD 5560/tCO2. The study maps seven steel clusters in Eastern India and finds significant geological storage potential, primarily in deep saline aquifers (estimated at 62 Gt). To overcome high capital costs, the report proposes novel financing instruments like Partial Deep Discount Carbon STRIPS (PDDCS) bonds and the establishment of a Carbon Capture Finance Corporation (CCFC). It concludes that a breakeven carbon price of approximately INR 2,099 (USD 25)/tCO2 is necessary for project financial viability in a mature market.

The document examines the shortcomings of Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs), noting their tendency toward techno-economic framing and donor-driven agendas. It proposes South-South cooperation (SSC) as a vital alternative that leverages shared socio-economic challenges and peer learning to foster more inclusive, justice-centred transitions. Using South Africa and Colombia as case studies, the brief identifies specific opportunities for collaboration in mine closure, green industrialization, and institutional coordination to move beyond one-size-fits-all models.

The document defines green industrial policy as government strategies to develop sustainable industries, such as renewable energy and green steel, while phasing out polluting sectors. It highlights that fossil fuel subsidies, which reached $7 trillion worldwide in 2022, hinder the competitiveness of renewables. While countries like China, the US, and EU members have successfully used national policies to boost green tech, developing nations face barriers including limited financing, skills shortages, and intellectual property restrictions. The author argues that the G20 must ensure a just transition by promoting technology transfer, fair trade, and the creation of decent work, while avoiding policies like the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism that may penalise carbon-intensive developing economies.

The briefing outlines how regional financing ecosystems—comprising regional banks, community lenders, economic development organizations, and governments—can unlock capital for clean energy by structuring local projects into investable portfolios. It highlights that a one-size-fits-all approach is ineffective, citing specific high-feasibility opportunities in Minnesota (green steel and transmission) and New Orleans (green buildings and hydrogen). By coordinating diverse financial actors and using public or philanthropic funds to absorb first-loss risk, these ecosystems can address persistent barriers such as lack of predevelopment capital and underwriting friction to ensure inclusive economic benefits from the energy transition.

This fact sheet defines green industrial policy (GIP) as government strategies to promote sustainable industries and phase out greenhouse gas emitters. It highlights the success of China's electric vehicle industry as a model for GIP but warns that developing countries face significant financing, skills, and technological barriers. The document emphasizes the role of the G20 in shaping global GIP principles, particularly under South Africa's agenda, which focuses on leveraging critical minerals to drive inclusive economic growth and manufacturing in Africa.

The report identifies a significant gap in India's green hydrogen sector, where announced production capacity exceeds the 2030 target of 5 million metric tons (MMT) by 2.5 times, yet commissioned capacity remains below 0.01 MMT as of 2024. To address barriers like high costs and limited infrastructure, the report outlines five strategies to unlock 2.1–5 MMT of demand by 2030: blending in high-volume sectors (0.8–3.0 MMT), substitution in niche industries (0.04–0.07 MMT), green public procurement for steel (0.4–0.6 MMT), exporting hydrogen and ammonia (0.75–1.1 MMT), and exporting hydrogen-embedded products (0.1–0.2 MMT). It also emphasizes the need for enablers such as viability gap funding, sovereign guarantees, and hydrogen hubs.

The document describes how a global automaker used Climate TRACE and TASA Analytics data to move beyond coarse 'spend-based' emissions factors to granular, facility-level intelligence for steel and aluminium. By integrating Scope 1 and 2 emissions factors with rapid IO-LCA (rLCA) models, the project revealed significant emissions intensity variations across production methods and countries. Key findings highlight the potential for emissions reductions through increased scrap use in both steel and aluminium production and the inaccuracy of standard EEIO data in certain regions.

Brazil is positioned to lead in green iron production due to its abundant renewable energy resources, which can make H2-DRI production up to 65% cheaper than in other steelmaking countries. The document argues that a green iron export agenda would drive domestic economic growth and jobs while reducing global steel emissions.

The report calls for the EU to adopt a 2035 NDC target of at least 72.5% emissions reduction, aligning with a straight-line path toward a 90% reduction by 2040 and net zero by 2050. It emphasizes that a robust, investible target, supported by the Clean Industrial Deal and sectoral policies in energy, transport, and industry, will reduce dependence on fossil fuel imports—which cost the EU EUR 376 billion in 2024—and enhance global competitiveness. The authors advocate for a 'competitive sustainability' approach and strengthened public-private collaboration, citing models from Denmark, Sweden, and the Netherlands to accelerate the transition.

The report examines the application of transition finance tools—including loans and bonds—to support the decarbonisation of China's steel sector, highlighting the role of regional guidelines in Hebei Province. It identifies a significant funding gap, estimating a need for $18 billion in capital expenditure over the next five years for electric arc furnace (EAF) and hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (H2-DRI) technologies. While large state-owned enterprises are leading the transition, the report notes that high costs of green steel and limited scrap steel supply remain major barriers.

The document discusses the decline of Tesla's market share in the U.S. and Europe and the environmental impact of EV supply chains, specifically critiquing Hyundai's manufacturing plans while advocating for a transition to green steel and human rights protections.

The document argues that while Europe leads in near-zero emission steel innovation, it faces increasing competition from China and the MENA region. It calls for urgent policy action in 2024, specifically recommending the phase-out of coal-fired blast furnaces and the advancement of hydrogen-based green steel to secure jobs and industrial resilience. The text also critiques the Commission's Steel and Metals Action Plan (SMAP) for lacking input from environmental NGOs.