Search Climate Insights Directory

The report assesses the progress of the Brazilian Forest Code's implementation in 2022, highlighting a heterogeneous landscape where registration (CAR) is advanced but analysis and regularization (PRA) remain significant bottlenecks. While states like São Paulo and Espírito Santo show leadership in analysis, only 2% of national registries have completed analysis. The document identifies critical gaps in the registration of traditional territories and the slow adoption of the PRA, while noting that some states are integrating CAR data with deforestation alerts to enforce compliance.

In 2022, China's power demand grew by 4.4% (374 TWh), with wind and solar generation increasing by 26% to meet 69% of the net demand increase. Despite this clean energy growth, coal generation reached an all-time high in absolute terms (5,420 TWh), though its share of the electricity mix fell to 61%. Since 2000, China's total power sector emissions have increased fivefold to 4,694 MtCO2, even as emissions intensity declined by 21%. To reach a net zero power sector by 2040, China would need to reduce emissions by 261 million tonnes of CO2 annually.

In 2022, global electricity reached its lowest emissions intensity ever at 436 gCO2/kWh, with wind and solar hitting a record 12% of generation. Despite this, total power sector CO2 emissions reached a record high of 12,431 mtCO2 because wind and solar growth could not fully keep pace with a 2.5% increase in global electricity demand. This gap was filled by coal and other fossils, with coal generation rising by 108 TWh to a record 10,186 TWh. While clean electricity sources other than wind and solar saw their first year-on-year decline since 2011 due to nuclear outages and droughts, 2022 is characterized as an 'accelerator year' due to policy shifts like the EU's REPowerEU and the US Inflation Reduction Act.

The report examines the gap between soybean production distribution and rural insurance coverage in Brazil, highlighting how climate change—manifesting as severe droughts, hail, and frost—has led to unprecedented insurance claim payments. Using LASSO machine learning models, researchers found that while insurance data is insufficient to predict losses in the North and Northeast regions, agricultural yield data from PAM/IBGE can effectively identify climate variables (precipitation, fire risk, and wind) that correlate with losses. The authors recommend expanding insurance supply to vulnerable regions like MATOPIBA, utilizing production history for pricing in underserved areas, and strengthening the reinsurance market and public-private funds to ensure insurer liquidity.

The briefing finds that Nestlé's net-zero plan fails to meet any of the nine relevant recommendations from the UN Integrity Matters report, primarily due to a lack of specific methane targets and an over-reliance on regenerative agriculture. While Nestlé targets a 42% reduction in dairy and livestock emissions against a business-as-usual scenario, this represents only a 14% reduction from its 2018 baseline. The analysis estimates that Nestlé's methane emissions from cattle are roughly 8.7 million tonnes of CO2e, and notes that between 2018 and 2022, targeted GHG emissions dropped by only 1%.

The report analyzes Türkiye's shift in renewable energy generation from the hydro-rich east to the wind and solar-rich west and center. It highlights the vulnerability of the energy system to droughts, which historically force a reliance on imported gas. While Konya has seen massive solar growth due to the Karapınar plant, other high-potential southern provinces like Antalya and Van remain underutilized. The report advocates for more ambitious wind and solar targets to ensure energy security and meet net-zero goals.

The global GSS+ debt market reached a cumulative volume of USD3.7tn by the end of 2022, though new issuance fell 24% year-on-year to USD858.5bn due to rising interest rates and macroeconomic instability. Green bonds remained the dominant theme, accounting for 58% of 2022 volumes at USD487.1bn, while social bonds saw the steepest decline (41%) as COVID-19 recovery funding tapered. Transition bonds were the only segment to grow, increasing 5% to USD3.5bn, driven by policy support in China and Japan. The report also highlights the emergence of sovereign sustainability-linked bonds (SLBs) in Chile and Uruguay and the need for a dedicated Climate Resilience Taxonomy to scale adaptation and resilience (A&R) financing.

In 2022, wind and solar reached a record 12% share of global electricity, driving carbon intensity to a record low of 436 gCO2/kWh. However, absolute power sector emissions reached an all-time high of 12,431 mtCO2 because clean power growth did not fully meet rising global demand, which grew by 2.5% (+694 TWh). While coal generation rose by 1.1% to a record 10,186 TWh, the report forecasts that 2023 could be the first year of structural decline in fossil generation and the peak for power sector emissions. The analysis highlights a significant gap between current growth and the IEA NZE pathway, which requires wind and solar to reach 41% of global generation by 2030.

The report finds that while global coal power is generally declining and many existing plants have set retirement dates, China is experiencing a surge in new coal capacity. In 2022, China's new coal construction capacity grew by 38%, accounting for 68% of global construction. Despite this, the report suggests a coal-free future is possible if countries transition from broad commitments to specific plant retirement plans and close financial channels for coal.

The report finds that while the 'return of coal' did not materialize globally in 2022, the pace of retirements remains insufficient to meet Paris Agreement targets. China is a major outlier, with its coal capacity in development increasing by 38% in 2022, while capacities in the rest of the world decreased by 20%. In the EU and UK, coal use saw a marginal 1% increase due to the gas crisis, but long-term trends remain downward. In Sub-Saharan Africa, coal projects persist despite funding shortages, though some successful just transition initiatives, such as the Komati plant retirement in South Africa, provide a potential model for the region.

The report finds that while global coal phase-out remains possible, the current pace of closures is insufficient to meet Paris Agreement goals. China is a major outlier, accounting for 68% of proposed global coal capacity in 2022, while other regions show a decline in new projects. In South Korea, the report argues that current plans are inconsistent with national climate goals and that the financial risks of coal dependence are evident in the deficits of the Korea Electric Power Corporation.

The report indicates that while the global coal sector is generally declining, China is significantly increasing its coal capacity, contrasting with a sharp drop in new projects elsewhere. Most of the world's operational coal capacity is now within the scope of national neutrality targets, though the current pace of retirement remains insufficient to meet Paris Agreement objectives. In Latin America and the Caribbean, coal development has slowed significantly, with notable retirements in Chile and Peru, though Argentina and Brazil maintain some capacity in development.

The report indicates that while global coal capacity is nearing an end with one-third of the 580 GW fleet having set closure dates, the pace of exit is insufficient to meet Paris Agreement goals. China is a major outlier, with its development-stage capacity increasing by 32% to 366 GW in 2022, while the rest of the world saw a 22% decrease. In the EU and UK, the energy crisis caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine slowed retirements and led to the temporary restart of some units, though coal's share of electricity production only rose by 1%. Turkey ranks third globally in developing coal capacity with approximately 11 GW of announced projects, though many face financing and legal hurdles, and the government plans only 3.2 GW of new coal capacity by 2035.

The report highlights a global divergence in coal energy trends: while OECD countries and much of the world outside China are reducing coal capacity and increasing retirements, China is significantly expanding its domestic coal pipeline. The document notes that one-third of global coal capacity has a set phase-out date, yet the overall pace remains insufficient to meet Paris Agreement targets. Specific focus is given to Pakistan, where a shift toward local coal is increasing despite environmental concerns and international pledges.

The report finds that while the world outside China is nearing a 'no new coal' milestone, a massive surge in coal permitting and construction in China is offsetting global progress. In 2022, the global coal fleet grew by 19.5 GW, driven by China, which now accounts for 68% of global capacity under development. While the U.S. and EU continue to retire capacity, the pace of global retirements remains far below the levels required to meet a 1.5C pathway, which would necessitate an average of 117 GW of retirements per year. The report also highlights the role of private finance, noting that most financial institutions' coal policies remain insufficient to align with climate science.

The report evaluates the AU PSC's efforts to integrate youth into peace processes via the WiseYouth network and argues for a community-centred approach to the Sahel strategy to address inter-communal rivalries. It examines the 24-month transition in Guinea, emphasizing the need for regional ownership and inclusive electoral reforms. Additionally, it analyzes the conflict between the SAF and RSF in Sudan, warning that a lack of regional consensus and a proliferation of parallel peace processes may prolong the crisis. Finally, it outlines Uganda's priorities for the PSC chairship in May 2023, specifically regarding the AU-EU partnership.

The briefing finds that low to middle income groups in Sweden were most affected by the 2022 energy price crisis, with an average welfare impact of -3.8%. It highlights that sparsely populated areas suffered greater impacts than densely populated ones. The analysis suggests that direct compensation targeting income deciles 1 to 5, specifically deciles 3 to 5, would be more effective than fuel tax reductions, which primarily benefited high-income groups and risked undermining long-term climate goals.

The Canadian Climate Institute views the 2023 federal budget as a strategic response to the US Inflation Reduction Act, utilizing investment tax credits, the Canada Growth Fund, and the Canada Infrastructure Bank to mobilize private capital for clean energy. Key priorities include clean electricity, hydrogen production, and climate resilience funding.

The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) views Canada's 2023 federal budget as a significant step toward a net-zero economy, noting billions for clean energy and CAD 800 million for freshwater protection. However, the IISD warns that the budget maintains loopholes for fossil fuels, specifically through carbon capture and storage (CCS) funding and the inclusion of abated natural gas in clean electricity tax credits, which may undermine commitments to end inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.

The report examines how the African Development Bank, Asian Development Bank, Inter-American Development Bank, and World Bank are mainstreaming climate adaptation. While global finance flows for adaptation have increased and climate risk screening has become standard, the report finds that trends at the country level in Kenya, Nepal, and Peru are less clear. It highlights a lack of transparency in project-level finance allocations and argues for more funding of discrete adaptation projects and the use of programmatic finance and innovative instruments aligned with National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).