Search Climate Insights Directory
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Good News From the Dump
The report finds that global methane emissions from landfills are likely 10-15 Tg CH4/yr, significantly lower than the ~35 Tg reported by IPCC-based methodologies. It argues that developing countries will not follow the historical trajectory of industrialized nations toward heavy landfill reliance due to established recycling cultures, space constraints in megacities, and high organic waste content. The author identifies a 'gulf' between waste management field studies and climate modeling, noting that IPCC defaults often overestimate landfilling rates and underestimate food waste fractions. Among mitigation options, aerobic composting is highlighted as the most viable for developing countries because it is low-cost, suited to high-organic waste, and reduces leachate. Projections suggest that expanding composting could reduce 2030 methane emissions by approximately 34% compared to a reference scenario, while combined incineration and composting could reduce them by 43%.
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Document type: Research paper
Samtidshistoria, internationella relationer och källproblematiken
The author contends that official archives and contemporary reports often serve as political legitimization rather than factual records. Using examples such as secret Swedish-US military cooperation, the 1980s submarine incursions in Sweden, and Cold War-era terrorism in Europe, the paper demonstrates how 'formative events' are frequently misinterpreted due to classification. The author advocates for a 'triangulation' method—combining archive material, technical evidence, and oral history—to uncover truths that states intentionally keep off the record.
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Document type: Research paper
Can ‘1°C of climate change adaptation’ replace ‘1°C of mitigation’?
The document asserts that the notion of replacing mitigation with adaptation to meet temperature targets is unrealistic because adaptation has absolute limits and varies by scale and region. It critiques integrated assessment models (IAMs) for underestimating climate damages and overestimating adaptation effectiveness due to flawed assumptions about rational behavior and optimal timing. The authors suggest that policy-makers should instead use risk-based frameworks and co-benefits analyses to maximize the combined benefits of both strategies.
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Document type: Policy brief
Coal Power in the CDM: Issues and Options
The report examines the CDM methodology ACM0013 used to award emission reduction credits to coal projects in India and China. It finds that the methodology is systematically flawed, leading to an estimated 250% over-crediting of Certified Emission Reductions (CERs). The authors argue that most projects are non-additional because the transition to supercritical and ultra-supercritical technology is already driven by rising coal prices and national policies. Furthermore, the report highlights a low signal-to-noise ratio where factors other than boiler technology significantly impact efficiency, making verifiable emission reductions difficult to estimate. The authors conclude that using climate finance to support coal investments may undermine global climate goals and suggest sectoral crediting as a more robust alternative.
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Document type: Research paper
A Review of Methodological Approaches used to Analyse the Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Growth and Poverty in South Africa
The paper examines the theoretical and empirical debate surrounding trade liberalisation in South Africa, specifically its effects on growth, employment, and poverty. It critiques common methodological tools, including partial equilibrium approaches, effective rates of protection (ERP), and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, noting that they often rely on restrictive assumptions and fail to account for dynamic effects or institutional complexities. The author argues that the 'free trade' ideal is an unrealistic benchmark and suggests that South Africa should instead pursue a 'sensible management of trade' that creates dynamic comparative advantages and protects industrial policy space to achieve structural change and job creation.
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Document type: Research paper
Climate damages in the FUND model: A disaggregated analysis
The authors analyze the FUND model, which provided a significantly lower Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) estimate of $6 compared to other models like DICE ($28) and PAGE ($30). By disaggregating the model, they find that the low SCC is primarily driven by a large estimated net benefit in agriculture, largely due to CO2 fertilization. The paper identifies three technical issues in FUND's agricultural modeling: a risk of division by zero in the optimum temperature equation, the use of physically implausible temperature ranges in Monte Carlo analysis, and the use of truncated normal distributions that inflate the carbon fertilization effect. The authors argue that updating FUND with recent empirical research—which suggests smaller CO2 fertilization benefits and non-quadratic temperature impacts—would significantly increase the SCC estimate.
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Document type: Research paper
PUZZLING STATISTICS
The author argues that neither official police records nor victimisation surveys provide a definitive basis for ranking South Africa's crime levels against other countries due to significant methodological flaws. While South Africa shows high homicide rates in UNODC data, the author highlights systemic issues such as missing data for populous nations, inconsistent definitions of murder (especially regarding conflict-related deaths and infanticide), and implausible reporting rates in some developing countries. Victimisation surveys, such as the ICVS, offer an alternative but suffer from their own limitations, including the exclusion of murder and inconsistencies in how different cultures perceive and report crimes like sexual assault.
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Document type: Research paper
Participatory Management and Democratic Decentralization
The research examines forest management in Baye Commune, Mali, focusing on the Samori Forest. It analyzes three management systems: a neo-traditional approach led by the NGO SOS Sahel, state-led management via the National Department of Nature Conservation, and the emerging but currently powerless Commune Council. The author concludes that none of these systems are 'democratic' because they lack downward accountability and real decision-making power for local populations. While SOS Sahel has improved technical capacities, its 'provoked participation' model remains dependent on the NGO and lacks social legitimacy. The state continues to maintain an autocratic monopoly over environmental resources despite legal frameworks suggesting a shift toward decentralization.
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Document type: Research paper
ALPHA MOTORS, LTD.: Integrating Life-Cycle Environmental Concerns into Product Design
The document serves as a teaching guide for a case study on Alpha Motors, Ltd., focusing on the application of life-cycle analysis (LCA) in product design. It details the steps of LCA—goal definition, inventory, categorization, and valuation—while critically examining the Environmental Product Strategies (EPS) system. The text highlights the difficulties of environmental valuation, specifically the use of market prices, contingent valuation, and the assumption of linear additive preferences. It further discusses the trade-offs designers face regarding material costs, quality, end-of-life disposal, and fuel efficiency, while noting that the EPS system is based on "Scandinavian Values" and may not be universally applicable.
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Document type: Guide
Draft methodological tool: Fraction of non-renewable biomass
Carbon Market Watch (CMW) argues that the draft fNRB methodological tool lacks conservativeness and accuracy because it deviates from the MoFuSS model and Ghilardi & Bailis (2024) data. CMW recommends adopting the full set of MoFuSS-derived default values, including urban-specific data and accounting for fuel imports, to prevent the over-crediting of carbon offsets.
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Document type: Statement