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Challenges to debt sustainability and financial market development posed by COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine
The report examines how global shocks have exacerbated chronic fiscal and current account imbalances in five Sub-Saharan African nations. It highlights severe liquidity and solvency risks, particularly regarding external debt in Ethiopia, Ghana, and Kenya. The authors argue that while some countries used debt monetization and financial repression to manage short-term costs, these practices inhibit long-term financial market development and fuel inflation. The document recommends strengthening public debt management, diversifying funding sources, and transitioning toward market-conform policies to avoid debt distress and encourage private sector credit.
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Document type: Report
Recovering from COVID: Building Resilience in Select African Economies
The document examines the COVID-19 macroeconomic responses of South Africa, Nigeria, Senegal, Benin, Tanzania, and Uganda. It finds that wealthier, more open economies like South Africa and Senegal were more vulnerable to trade shocks but had greater capacity for fiscal and financial stimulus. In contrast, Tanzania and Benin experienced marginal growth deceleration due to minimal government reactions. The report highlights a looming 'debt repayment wall' peaking in 2024 and argues for a transition toward green energy, diversified revenue bases, and the redirection of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) from high-income nations to support African development and climate adaptation.
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Document type: Policy brief
Green Economy Analysis in Georgia
The report evaluates green economy (GE) investments in Georgia, focusing on buildings, agriculture, and tourism. Using the SAVi methodology, it demonstrates that while traditional financial analysis suggests these investments may not be profitable, incorporating environmental, social, and economic externalities reveals a high sustainable internal rate of return (S-IRR) of 84% and a sustainable net present value (S-NPV) of approximately GEL 20.4 billion.
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Document type: Report
Transitional Policies to Assist the Poor While Phasing Out Inefficient Fossil Fuel Subsidies That Encourage Wasteful Consumption
The report argues that Bangladesh's state-dominated oil market and ad-hoc pricing policy create severe fiscal burdens, hinder investment, and encourage carbon emissions. It finds that oil subsidies primarily benefit the rich and upper-middle classes rather than the poor. To address these issues, the authors recommend a phased transition toward market-based pricing, the deregulation of all oil market segments to encourage private investment, and the implementation of targeted cash transfers to protect vulnerable populations from price increases.
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Document type: Research paper
Climate Change Mitigation in Southern Africa Zambia Country Study
The study establishes a baseline for Zambia's GHG emissions, dominated by energy and land-use activities, and proposes mitigation strategies. In the energy sector, the most cost-effective options include improved vehicle maintenance, ethanol blending, and the adoption of electric and improved charcoal stoves. In the forestry sector, natural regeneration is identified as the most sustainable and least costly method to increase forest cover. The report projects that implementing these measures could reduce total CO2 emissions by 12.47% by 2010 and 18.27% by 2030 compared to the baseline scenario. However, implementation is hindered by a lack of financial resources for both the government and low-income citizens.
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Document type: Report
STUDY ON MANAGING SOVEREIGN DEBT IN TIMES OF CRISIS
The COVID-19 pandemic caused a sharp economic downturn in the MEFMI region, characterized by contracting GDP growth, widening fiscal deficits, and deteriorating external positions. To mitigate these effects, member states implemented a range of fiscal measures, such as VAT exemptions and social protection transfers, and monetary interventions, including cutting policy rates and reducing statutory reserve requirements. However, these responses, combined with lower revenues and higher borrowing costs, accelerated public debt accumulation and eroded debt-carrying capacity across the region. The document emphasizes the need for sustainable debt management, fiscal buffers, and economic diversification to build resilience against future shocks.
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Document type: Report
Recovering from COVID: Building Resilience in Select African Economies
The report examines how Benin, Senegal, Tanzania, Uganda, Nigeria, and South Africa responded to the COVID-19 pandemic. It finds that wealthier, more open economies like South Africa and Senegal were most vulnerable to shocks, while countries like Tanzania and Benin experienced marginal growth deceleration due to minimal or delayed government reactions. Fiscal capacity varied significantly: South Africa and Senegal implemented the most substantive stimulus packages, whereas Nigeria was constrained by a volatile tax base. Most countries focused on industry support and tax relief, though South Africa uniquely allocated 60% of its package to social security. The document highlights a looming 'debt repayment wall' peaking in 2024 and argues for a transition toward green infrastructure, diversified revenue bases, and a common African negotiating position to secure concessional finance and Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) from higher-income nations.
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Document type: Report
Evaluating Macroeconomic Resilience: The Case of South Africa and Botswana
The paper evaluates how South Africa and Botswana have managed macroeconomic shocks, comparing their fiscal and monetary strategies. It highlights South Africa's diversified economy and inflation-targeting regime against Botswana's diamond-dependent economy and crawling peg exchange rate. The authors analyze the impact of the Global Financial Crisis, commodity price drops, and COVID-19, concluding that both nations face declining fiscal resilience due to structural constraints, debt burdens, and resource volatility.
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Document type: Research paper