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Land cover change to forest plantations: proximate causes and implications for the landscape in south-central Chile
The study analyzes the expansion of timber plantations, primarily Pinus radiata, in south-central Chile from 1975 to 2007. Using satellite imagery and autologistic regressions, the research finds that plantations grew from 5.5% to 42.4% of the landscape. Early expansion (1975–1990) was strongly linked to forest-suitable soils, steep slopes, proximity to cities, and corporate landholdings. The study highlights that a significant portion of this expansion resulted from clearing secondary native forests, contributing to deforestation and biodiversity loss.
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Document type: Research paper
Aplicación de Sistemas de Información Geográfica al análisis de eventos climáticos extremos en la Región Semiárida Pampeana (Provincia de Buenos Aires, Argentina)
The study utilized the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) from 98 stations and GIS interpolation to identify extreme climate events in the Semi-Arid Pampean Region from 2000 to 2012. It identified 2001 as a wet year and 2009 as a dry year, concluding that the Spline interpolation method is optimal for characterizing these events in the region.
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Document type: Research paper
Biomass resilience of Neotropical secondary forests
An analysis of 45 forest sites and 1,500 plots in the Neotropics reveals that secondary forests are highly productive, with an average biomass recovery of 122 Mg/ha after 20 years and a median recovery time of 66 years to reach 90% of old-growth levels. Recovery rates are strongly influenced by water availability, with the highest potential in humid tropical lowland areas and the lowest in seasonally dry forest regions.
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Document type: Research paper
Post-fire resprouting capacity of seasonally dry forest species: two quantitative indices
The study introduces two quantitative indices, RCI 1 (ECRD/ECTD) and RCI 2 (MRD/MTD), to assess post-fire resprouting capacity in the arid Chaco of Argentina. Testing 1,046 plants across 20 species, the researchers found that both indices correlate strongly with resprouting vigour and provide more detail than survival-only assessments. Results indicate that resprouting capacity decreases as the estimated composite diameter of trunks (ECTD) increases, and that growth form influences RCI 2 values, with tree/shrubs and trees generally showing higher RCI 1 values than shrubs.
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Document type: Research paper
Online Domestic Extremism in Canada
The Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD) identified 545 domestic extremist accounts in Canada, analyzing 413,288 posts across platforms like X and Telegram. The study found that while the volume of hate speech decreased by 34% from the previous period, anti-migrant and antisemitic content remained prevalent. Violent speech peaked in January 2025, coinciding with Justin Trudeau's resignation and Donald Trump's rhetoric regarding Canada. Key narratives included misogyny, conspiracy theories surrounding Romana Didulo, and anti-government sentiment. The report also highlights a 'Revolutionary Movementarianism' strategy aimed at blending public political activism with the secret build-up of paramilitary structures.
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Document type: Briefing
Online Domestic Extremism in Canada Data Briefing – December 2024 to February 2025
The report identifies 545 domestic extremist accounts in Canada, analyzing over 413,000 posts. It finds that ethnonationalists and white supremacists are the most prolific, while anti-Muslim extremists achieve the highest engagement. Hate speech decreased by 34% from the previous period, with migrants and Jewish people being the primary targets. The document also introduces a new analysis of violent speech, noting peaks coinciding with political events like Justin Trudeau's resignation and Donald Trump's rhetoric regarding Canada.
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Document type: Briefing
Generative AI and the German Far Right
The report analyzes 883 posts featuring AI-generated content (AIGC) from German far-right accounts, finding that generative AI is used as a cost-effective complement to existing digital strategies. Key actors include the AfD, 'Neue Rechte' outlets, and AI-generated 'influencers'. The content primarily focuses on anti-migrant narratives, attacks on the 'traffic light' coalition government, and the glorification of an idealized German identity. The study highlights a significant lack of platform compliance with the EU Digital Services Act (DSA) and the AI Act regarding the labeling and removal of misleading AIGC.
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Document type: Report
Climate-Related Human Mobility Across Different Levels of Adaptation Governance
The report analyzes the integration of human mobility into National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), finding that while 83% of submitted NAPs reference mobility, most lack detailed strategies for sub-national implementation. Through case studies in Costa Rica, Senegal, and Sri Lanka, it identifies gaps in financing, data, and coordination between national and local governments, while proposing a typology of approaches for localizing mobility actions.
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Document type: Research paper
Carbon Copies: Suspicious Patterns of Commercial and Industrial Policy Response by the Behemoths of World Trade
Analysis of data from the Global Trade Alert database indicates that climate-related industrial policies in major trading economies often trigger 'echo' effects, where subsidy awards and import restrictions by one nation lead to similar responses from others within 6 to 24 months. The study finds that the EU-27 reacts almost every time to Chinese and US moves in net-zero sectors, while Chinese industrial policy support most frequently elicits import curb reactions from both the EU-27 and the USA. These patterns raise concerns regarding tit-for-tat trade conflicts and market access risks, suggesting a need for greater international alignment and transparency in supply-side interventions for the low-carbon transition.
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Document type: Briefing
The bridge to net zero matters more than the destination
The study finds that current net-zero targets are not 'entirely zero', with remaining emissions averaging 21% of 2019 levels. It highlights a significant misalignment between long-term goals and current actions, noting that emissions under current policies are decreasing by only 0.2% per year, far below the -3.8% annual reduction rate required from 2030 to meet net-zero targets.
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Document type: Research paper
Credit Where It’s Due: Financial Institutions and Credit for Deforested Properties
The research finds that 36% of subsidized rural credit in Brazil from 2020 to 2024 went to properties that deforested after 2009, with public banks and cooperatives providing 91% of this volume. It highlights a recurring pattern of deforestation both before and after credit is granted and argues for a complete dissociation of public financial incentives from any form of deforestation to meet Brazil's 2030 zero-deforestation target.
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Document type: Research paper
Lost Winter in Poland Analysis
Climate change has significantly increased the number of winter days above freezing in Poland, with the country ranking fifth globally for the most lost chilled winter days. Between 2014 and 2023, Poland experienced nearly three additional weeks of days above freezing annually, with all 13 analyzed cities seeing at least two additional weeks per year.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Lost Winter in the United Kingdom Analysis
The analysis finds that climate change has increased the number of winter days with minimum temperatures above 0°C across the United Kingdom, with a national average of 11 additional days per year. England experienced the highest increase with 12 additional days, followed by Scotland and Wales with 10, and Northern Ireland with 8.
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Document type: Fact sheet
CAR a CAR: As Instituições Financeiras e o Crédito para Propriedades com Desmatamento
The report finds that 36% of subsidized rural credit in Brazil between 2020 and 2024 was directed to properties that deforested after 2009. Public banks and credit cooperatives are the primary providers of this credit, with some institutions showing high levels of exposure to deforesting properties. The authors argue for a complete dissociation of subsidized credit from any form of deforestation to meet Brazil's 2030 climate goals.
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Document type: Report
Faire progresser les processus de plans nationaux d’adaptation (PNA) prenant en compte les questions de genre état de la situation et exemples de pratiques prometteuses
The report finds that while 96% of analyzed National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) mention gender, women are predominantly framed as vulnerable groups (86%) rather than agents of change (16%). It emphasizes the need for gender-responsive processes that ensure equitable participation and outcomes, supported by institutional arrangements, funding, and intersectional analysis. The document highlights specific national examples, such as Rwanda's use of visual storytelling and Argentina's municipal-level gender-disaggregated data, to advance gender-responsive adaptation.
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Document type: Report
Making the Most of Electric Vehicle Batteries
The Union of Concerned Scientists finds that implementing battery recycling, improving vehicle efficiency, right-sizing battery range, and increasing non-vehicle transportation options could reduce newly mined lithium demand in the US by 48% between 2025 and 2050. This reduction equals 1.5 million metric tons of lithium. The report argues that high recovery rates (90%) could allow recycled content to meet nearly 60% of lithium demand by 2050. Key recommendations include federal recycling requirements, efficiency standards, and expanded public charging infrastructure to reduce the need for oversized batteries.
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Document type: Executive summary
Solar surge: Meeting two-thirds of the rise in Türkiye’s peak electricity demand in 2024
In 2024, solar energy in Türkiye significantly increased its contribution to meeting peak electricity demand, covering two-thirds of the hourly peak demand increase compared to 2023. This growth is driven by rising cooling needs due to hotter summers, with solar power meeting 18% of peak demand in 2024, up from 2.5% in 2017. On July 23, 2024, solar generation exceeded 10 GWh, meeting the total hourly demand for over 10 million people in Western Anatolia provinces. The report highlights that solar installations helped Türkiye avoid investing in approximately 16 GW of fossil fuel capacity in 2024 and notes that over 14 GW of solar capacity with storage is currently in pre-licensing stages, far exceeding the 2030 National Energy Plan target of 2.1 GW.
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Document type: Report
Empty Promises: Oil & Gas Decarbonization Charter Masks Massive Fossil Fuel Expansion
The Oil & Gas Decarbonization Charter, launched at COP28 by 50 companies, is criticized for focusing on upstream operational emissions while ignoring the larger impact of burning produced fuels. Analysis shows that between January and September 2024, Charter members approved 68 new oil and gas fields containing 14 billion barrels of oil equivalent, which could release nearly 5 billion metric tonnes of CO2. Ten companies, including ADNOC, Saudi Aramco, Petrobras, TotalEnergies, and Shell, are responsible for over 90 percent of these new reserves. These projects represent a commitment of nearly USD 250 billion in expenditure. While the IEA's 1.5ºC pathway requires global production to decline by nearly 20 percent by 2030, Charter companies are projected to increase their production by 17 percent by 2030.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Flaring Accountability
The report finds that 10 major international oil companies (IOCs) are responsible for 7% of global gas flaring on an equity-weighted basis, with a significant portion occurring at non-operated assets. In 2023, total global upstream flaring was 145 billion cubic meters (bcm), with an average intensity of 5.0 m³/bbl. The analysis highlights a gap between corporate commitments to the World Bank's Zero Routine Flaring (ZRF) initiative and actual performance, noting that non-routine flaring remains largely unabated and that no analyzed company meets the IEA's Net Zero Emissions scenario target of 0.3 m³/bbl by 2030. The report argues that IOCs have a broader influence on up to 40% of global flaring through their partnerships with national oil companies (NOCs) and recommends extending emissions targets to non-operated assets and implementing stricter regulatory and financial levers.
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Document type: Report
Carbon footprints of consumption of goods and services
The study provides high-resolution carbon footprint estimates for Swedish households, revealing significant variation at the postcode level and identifying correlations between footprints and factors such as income and population density.
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Document type: Research paper