Carbon Copies: Suspicious Patterns of Commercial and Industrial Policy Response by the Behemoths of World Trade

Analysis of data from the Global Trade Alert database indicates that climate-related industrial policies in major trading economies often trigger 'echo' effects, where subsidy awards and import restrictions by one nation lead to similar responses from others within 6 to 24 months. The study finds that the EU-27 reacts almost every time to Chinese and US moves in net-zero sectors, while Chinese industrial policy support most frequently elicits import curb reactions from both the EU-27 and the USA. These patterns raise concerns regarding tit-for-tat trade conflicts and market access risks, suggesting a need for greater international alignment and transparency in supply-side interventions for the low-carbon transition.

• Analysis of 3,209 subsidy awards and 151 import curbs since January 1, 2017, shows that policy measures in net-zero sectors often trigger reciprocal responses from other major jurisdictions within 6, 12, or 24 months.
• The EU-27 demonstrates a high frequency of response to the trade policies of China and the USA, reacting almost every time to their tariff and subsidy moves that favor local firms in net-zero sectors within a two-year window.
• The United States has a lower likelihood of responding with subsidies compared to other players, but the probability of a US subsidy response still reaches or exceeds 60% over a two-year period.
• Chinese industrial policy support is the most frequent trigger for import curbs from both the USA and the EU-27. Additionally, import curbs implemented by the EU-27 and USA are more likely to be followed by further import curbs elsewhere than their subsidy measures are.

APA

Evenett, S. J., & Martin, F. (2024). Carbon Copies: Suspicious Patterns of Commercial and Industrial Policy Response by the Behemoths of World Trade. Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs. https://tessforum.org/latest/carbon-copies-suspicious-patterns-of-commercial-and-industrial-policy-response-by-the-behemoths-of-world-trade

Chicago

Evenett, Simon J., and Fernando Martin. Carbon Copies: Suspicious Patterns of Commercial and Industrial Policy Response by the Behemoths of World Trade. Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs, 2024. https://tessforum.org/latest/carbon-copies-suspicious-patterns-of-commercial-and-industrial-policy-response-by-the-behemoths-of-world-trade.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Evenett |first1=Simon J. |last2=Martin |first2=Fernando |title=Carbon Copies: Suspicious Patterns of Commercial and Industrial Policy Response by the Behemoths of World Trade |publisher=Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs |date=16 December 2024 |url=https://tessforum.org/latest/carbon-copies-suspicious-patterns-of-commercial-and-industrial-policy-response-by-the-behemoths-of-world-trade |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{evenett2024carbon, author = {Evenett, Simon J. and Martin, Fernando}, title = {{Carbon Copies: Suspicious Patterns of Commercial and Industrial Policy Response by the Behemoths of World Trade}}, institution = {Forum on Trade, Environment, \& the SDGs}, year = {2024}, month = dec, url = {https://tessforum.org/latest/carbon-copies-suspicious-patterns-of-commercial-and-industrial-policy-response-by-the-behemoths-of-world-trade}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }