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Wringing the West Dry
Research by the Union of Concerned Scientists and University of California, Merced, indicates that emissions from the 'Carbon Majors'—the 122 largest industrial carbon producers—are responsible for approximately half of the climate-driven reductions in snowpack and streamflow, and increases in irrigation demand across the western United States. The analysis highlights specific 'hot spots' in California and the Pacific Northwest, noting that these emissions contributed to a 15% reduction in April snowpack and a 6.1% decrease in warm season streamflow. In California's Central Valley, 10% of observed groundwater loss is attributed to these companies. The document argues that the fossil fuel industry should be held financially accountable for these damages, as local governments and vulnerable communities currently bear the economic costs of adaptation and infrastructure failure.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Nos están secando el oeste
A study by the Union of Concerned Scientists and UC Merced finds that human-caused climate change has significantly reduced snowpack and streamflow while increasing irrigation demand in the western US. Approximately half of these impacts are attributed to the emissions of 'Carbon Majors'—the 122 largest industrial CO2 emitters. The report highlights severe consequences in agricultural regions like California's Central Valley, where Carbon Majors' emissions are linked to 10% of groundwater loss, and argues for the financial accountability of these companies for climate-driven water damages.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Renewables shield Spanish consumers from elevated gas prices
Spain's strategic investment in wind and solar power has significantly reduced the influence of gas on electricity prices, keeping power costs among the lowest in the EU during the 2026 energy crisis. While high gas prices caused spikes in other European markets like Italy, Spanish consumers benefited from a decoupling effect that saved a typical household approximately €10 per month. The report also highlights policy responses following the April 2025 Iberian blackout, including reforms to battery storage and grid management, and temporary tax cuts to encourage electrification and reduce fossil fuel import dependency.
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Document type: Report
Hormuz crisis could cost Türkiye $14 billion
The 2026 Hormuz crisis, triggered by a US-Israel war with Iran, is projected to increase Türkiye's energy import bill by $14 billion by the end of 2026. This increase is driven by a 50% surge in Brent crude oil prices and a 45% rise in European gas prices. Türkiye's high import dependence—95% for natural gas, 83% for crude oil, and 60% for coal—makes its economy structurally vulnerable to global price shocks. Road transport is the largest contributor to the energy bill, accounting for nearly one-third of the total in 2025. The report suggests that transitioning to electric vehicles and heat pumps could permanently lower import costs, noting that 1 million electric cars could save $900 million annually and a 10% transition to heat pumps in homes could save $1 billion annually.
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Document type: Report
The Future of Sustainable Aviation Fuel in the Midwestern United States: Finding Alternatives to Crop-Based Biofuels
The research evaluates the feasibility and economic benefits of transitioning from food-crop biofuels to residue-based SAFs and e-fuels in the Midwestern United States. It finds that producing three billion gallons of SAF annually from corn stover could contribute between $9 billion and $32 billion to regional GDP and support up to 214,000 jobs, provided there is sufficient policy support.
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Document type: Research paper
Potential Impacts of the Oil Price Shock on India
The document examines how India is managing an energy price shock resulting from conflict in Iran. To control inflation, the Indian government has absorbed costs by cutting fuel excise duties and increasing fertilizer subsidies, costing an estimated 590 billion Indian rupees between March and May 2026. The brief warns that continued shock absorption may drain budgets for grid modernization and renewable energy, while passing costs to the public would disproportionately harm low-income households through indirect inflationary effects on food and transport.
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Document type: Policy brief
Mobile Phones and Broadband—a big Leap for Africa
Africa has experienced significant technological leapfrogging by bypassing fixed-line telecommunications in favor of mobile networks. While mobile subscriptions surged from 1.9 to over 100 per 100 people between 2000 and 2023, fixed broadband remains limited. The report highlights the role of satellite internet, such as Starlink, in reaching remote areas and notes that mobile broadband coverage in Nigeria is linked to increased household consumption and poverty reduction. By 2050, mobile phone and mobile broadband subscriptions are projected to reach 150 and 149 per 100 people, respectively, though gaps in affordability and digital skills persist.
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Document type: Report
Leapfrogging in the Financial Sector
The research paper examines the 'fintech revolution' in Africa, focusing on how mobile money services like M-Pesa have allowed the continent to bypass traditional banking infrastructure. It details the economic impacts of digital finance, including poverty reduction and GDP growth in sub-Saharan Africa, while noting remaining challenges in cross-border payments and regulatory oversight.
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Document type: Research paper
Solar could help Vietnam avoid almost USD 600 million from coal and gas imports as Iran war drives up energy prices
Vietnam's solar power generation helps the country avoid approximately USD 594 million in fossil fuel import costs during the current energy price surge driven by the Iran war. While Vietnam leads Southeast Asia in solar and wind shares, it continues to prioritize coal and gas in its long-term power planning, increasing its vulnerability to global price shocks.
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Document type: Briefing
Latest energy shock reminds Europe of its risky gas reliance
A conflict in the Middle East involving Israel, the US, and Iran has caused global fossil fuel supply disruptions, leading to a nearly 50% increase in European gas prices in early March 2026. The briefing highlights that the EU's fossil import bill rose by an estimated €2.5 billion in the first ten days of the crisis. It argues that countries with high gas reliance for electricity, such as Italy, are most exposed to price spikes, while those that have decoupled gas from electricity prices, like Spain, are more resilient. The author contends that electricity market reforms or removing carbon costs (EU-ETS) are less effective than investing in renewables and clean flexibility to ensure long-term energy security.
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Document type: Briefing
Latest energy shock reminds Europe of its risky gas reliance
A conflict in the Middle East in March 2026 caused European gas prices to spike by nearly 50%, increasing the EU's fossil import bill by €2.5 billion in ten days. The report highlights that countries with lower gas reliance, such as Spain, are more insulated from electricity price hikes than gas-heavy markets like Italy. It argues against suspending carbon costs under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, noting that gas volatility has a far greater impact on bills than carbon pricing.
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Document type: Report
Renewables cut annual electricity bills by one month in Türkiye
In 2025, renewable energy reduced annual electricity bills for households in Türkiye by an average of 9%, with some monthly savings reaching 17%. While renewables lowered wholesale electricity prices by up to 45%, the benefit to end-consumers is limited by a regulated tariff structure. The report highlights that 2.5 million households are expected to transition to the non-subsidized Last Resort Supply Tariff (LRST) in 2026, potentially doubling their bills, though renewable growth may mitigate this. Additionally, implementing hourly demand-side management could increase annual household savings to 15.7%, equivalent to two months of bills.
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Document type: Report
Canada’s industrial carbon pricing systems
The document argues that industrial carbon pricing in Canada has a negligible impact on consumer costs and household consumption due to the nature of global commodity markets and the design of the pricing systems. It highlights that these systems target only the largest emitters and that a significant portion of their output is exported, preventing costs from being passed to domestic consumers. Specific examples include minimal price increases for consumer goods like refrigerators and pickup trucks, and low per-barrel costs for oil sands producers.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Fiche de renseignement : Tarification carbone industriel Canada
The Canadian Climate Institute asserts that industrial carbon pricing has almost no impact on average Canadian household spending, with a projected effect on consumption of nearly 0% in 2025 and only a 0.1 percentage point reduction by 2030. The document attributes this to the fact that these systems target large emitters—such as oil sands, steel mills, and cement plants—rather than individuals, and that many of the affected products are exported to global markets. For example, nearly 80% of oil sands production is exported, and the cost added to a refrigerator by carbon pricing on steel mills is estimated at only $0.12. Additionally, the report finds that the policy has almost no effect on food prices or the agricultural sector, with a predicted cumulative GDP effect on agriculture of 0.08% by 2030. For businesses, costs are limited because they only pay for emissions exceeding set limits; for oil sands producers, current costs average 9 cents per barrel, and are projected to remain around 50 cents per barrel by 2050 (inflation-adjusted) under the Canada-Alberta memorandum of understanding.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Methane regulation in Africa
The report examines the challenges and opportunities for African energy exporters facing the EU Methane Regulation, which imposes extraterritorial monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) standards on imports. While Africa accounts for nearly 13% of global methane emissions, the continent faces significant financing gaps and technical barriers to compliance. The authors argue that while the regulation threatens export revenues, it provides a strategic opportunity to adopt low-cost abatement technologies. Key recommendations include mobilising innovative financing like transition bonds, establishing local independent verification capacity, and harmonising MRV standards to maintain market access to the EU.
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Document type: Report
Out of sight, out of control: 31 GW of captive coal is jeopardizing Indonesia's economic and emissions goals
Indonesia is experiencing an explosive surge in captive coal power, with total operational and prospective capacity reaching nearly 31 GW. This growth is heavily concentrated in nickel hubs like Central Sulawesi and North Maluku, dwarfing the expansion of the national power grid. The report highlights significant data discrepancies in official JETP mapping and warns that regulatory loopholes in PERPRES 112/2022 allow 'national strategic projects' to bypass coal moratoriums. This trajectory is projected to cause 27,000 additional air pollution-related deaths and USD 20 billion in economic burden, while creating 'sacrifice zones' that risk Indonesia's position in global green supply chains.
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Document type: Report
Tak terlihat, tak terkendali: Pembangkit batubara captive sebesar 31 GW mempertaruhkan target ekonomi dan pengurangan emisi Indonesia
Indonesia is experiencing a surge in 'captive' coal-fired power plants—industrial plants not connected to the national grid—which are growing significantly faster than on-grid capacity. Driven largely by nickel smelting in Sulawesi and North Maluku, total operational and prospective captive capacity is projected to reach 31 GW, nearly tripling 2023 levels. The report highlights critical transparency gaps in government and JETP data, regulatory loopholes for National Strategic Projects (PSN), and severe long-term economic and health costs, including an estimated 27,000 additional deaths and USD 20 billion in cumulative economic burdens if these plants are not phased out.
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Document type: Report
Valuation of Losses from the Rempang Eco City Project
The Rempang Eco City project has caused significant environmental and economic losses for local households, with annual environmental losses estimated at IDR 1.3 billion per household, far exceeding their potential income. The study highlights a discrepancy between government claims and actual household incomes, suggesting that promised economic benefits are unlikely to materialize, while noting that non-economic losses—such as cultural and social erosion—remain unquantified.
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Document type: Executive summary
Transición energética justa o crisis económica territorial: riesgos y oportunidades para Colombia
The policy brief assesses the macroeconomic, financial, and labor risks associated with Colombia's energy transition, particularly for five vulnerable departments. It warns that a disordered transition could lead to the loss of 448,000 jobs by 2035 and increased country risk. To mitigate this, the authors propose an integrated policy package comprising macro-fiscal-financial measures to lower capital costs, territorially differentiated labor protections, and a productive-territorial strategy focusing on 'lever sectors' like electric energy, efficient construction, and agroecology to create sustainable local employment.
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Document type: Policy brief
Understanding the Value of the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, and the Impacts of EPA’s Proposal to Roll Back the GHGRP
The EPA has proposed a significant rollback of the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP), which would remove reporting requirements for 46 of 47 source categories and suspend subpart W reporting until 2034. This proposal threatens the viability of over 270 carbon capture projects and $77.5 billion in capital investment because the 45Q tax credit relies on GHGRP for monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV). Specifically, the loss of subparts PP, RR, and VV would prevent carbon capture and storage (CCS) and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects from claiming 45Q credits. For hydrogen projects, the delay of subpart W would reduce the reliability of upstream methane leak rate measurements used in the 45VH2-GREET tool for 45V tax credits, potentially forcing taxpayers to rely on an inaccurate 0.9% national average and increasing legal risks for high performers. Internationally, the rollback could disadvantage U.S. exporters in markets requiring verified data, such as those under the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Domestically, at least ten states, including California and Colorado, have embedded GHGRP into their legal frameworks; removing it would force these states to create costly patchwork substitutes to maintain emissions inventories.
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Document type: Fact sheet