Out of sight, out of control: 31 GW of captive coal is jeopardizing Indonesia's economic and emissions goals

Indonesia is experiencing an explosive surge in captive coal power, with total operational and prospective capacity reaching nearly 31 GW. This growth is heavily concentrated in nickel hubs like Central Sulawesi and North Maluku, dwarfing the expansion of the national power grid. The report highlights significant data discrepancies in official JETP mapping and warns that regulatory loopholes in PERPRES 112/2022 allow 'national strategic projects' to bypass coal moratoriums. This trajectory is projected to cause 27,000 additional air pollution-related deaths and USD 20 billion in economic burden, while creating 'sacrifice zones' that risk Indonesia's position in global green supply chains.

• Captive coal capacity in Indonesia has grown rapidly, with 4.49 GW of industrial off-grid capacity marked operational between July 2024 and July 2025, accounting for approximately 80% of all year-over-year coal additions.
• The total pipeline of operational and prospective captive coal projects is nearly 31 GW, which is triple the nation's 2023 captive capacity and comparable to the total coal fleet of Germany (32.3 GW).
• The nickel industry is the primary driver of this growth, with 15.4 GW in operation and 2.5 GW under construction as of July 2025, particularly in Central Sulawesi and North Maluku.
• There are significant discrepancies between independent monitoring and the JETP Captive Power Thematic Report, which the authors claim underestimates clean energy needs by omitting announced projects and relying on non-existent enforcement mechanisms.
• Regulatory loopholes in Presidential Regulation No. 112 Year 2022 (PERPRES 112/2022) allow coal plants dedicated to 'national strategic projects' (PSN) to bypass the coal moratorium.
• The continued use of captive coal is projected to result in 27,000 additional air pollution-related deaths and a cumulative economic burden of USD 20 billion if these plants are excluded from retirement targets.
• The creation of 'sacrifice zones' in nickel hubs has led to legal consequences, such as the December 2025 Poso District Court ruling finding nickel operators liable for unlawful environmental destruction.

APA

Hasan, K., & Hummer, L. (2026). Out of sight, out of control: 31 GW of captive coal is jeopardizing Indonesia's economic and emissions goals. Global Energy Monitor. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/EN-CREA_GEM_Indonesia-captive-coal-in-2025_3.pdf

Chicago

Hasan, Katherine, and Lucy Hummer. Out of sight, out of control: 31 GW of captive coal is jeopardizing Indonesia's economic and emissions goals. Global Energy Monitor, 2026. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/EN-CREA_GEM_Indonesia-captive-coal-in-2025_3.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Hasan |first1=Katherine |last2=Hummer |first2=Lucy |title=Out of sight, out of control: 31 GW of captive coal is jeopardizing Indonesia's economic and emissions goals |publisher=Global Energy Monitor |date=27 January 2026 |url=https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/EN-CREA_GEM_Indonesia-captive-coal-in-2025_3.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{hasan2026out, author = {Hasan, Katherine and Hummer, Lucy}, title = {{Out of sight, out of control: 31 GW of captive coal is jeopardizing Indonesia's economic and emissions goals}}, institution = {Global Energy Monitor}, year = {2026}, month = jan, url = {https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/EN-CREA_GEM_Indonesia-captive-coal-in-2025_3.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }