Transición energética justa o crisis económica territorial: riesgos y oportunidades para Colombia

This policy brief by Transforma and Diorama Initiative analyzes the macroeconomic, financial, and social risks of Colombia's energy transition. It warns that a disordered transition could lead to significant job losses and fiscal instability due to the country's high dependence on fossil fuels. The document proposes an integrated policy framework consisting of macro-fiscal, labor, and productive-territorial packages to transform the energy transition into a broader strategy for just economic diversification.

• A disordered energy transition in Colombia could result in the loss of 448,000 jobs by 2035. Of these, 79% are indirect jobs, highlighting that the risk extends far beyond direct employees of the extractive sector.
• Five departments are identified as particularly vulnerable: Meta, Cesar, La Guajira, Casanare, and Arauca. In these regions, the mining and quarrying sector accounts for 40% to 50% of departmental production, and approximately 152,000 jobs are at risk by 2035.
• Renewable energy projects alone do not solve the employment crisis because they primarily generate temporary construction jobs. Furthermore, a significant portion of project spending is lost to imports: 85% for solar and 70% for wind projects.
• Colombia faces high macroeconomic risk due to its structural dependence on fossil fuels, with 78% of its primary energy supply coming from these sources as of 2023. Coal and oil represent 44.7% of its export basket, and the General Royalty System (2.1% of GDP) relies heavily on non-renewable extraction.
• The document identifies six 'lever sectors' to drive the transition: electric energy, networks and storage (the primary systemic enabler); efficient construction; enabling manufactures (metal-mechanics and electrical equipment); mobility and logistics; circular economy and bioeconomy; and enabling services (engineering and software).
• To ensure a just transition, the authors propose three coordinated policy packages: a macro-fiscal-financial package to reduce capital costs and diversify public income; a territorially differentiated labor package to protect workers; and a productive-territorial package to activate sectors with real linkage capacity.

APA

Naranjo, S. B., Rey, C., Duarte, L., Saavedra, P., Ramírez, F., & Castro, K. (2026). Transición energética justa o crisis económica territorial: riesgos y oportunidades para Colombia. Transforma. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/transicion-energetica-justa-crisis-economica-territorial-colombia-Transforma.pdf

Chicago

Naranjo, Santiago Barbosa, Catherina Rey, Lucía Duarte, Paola Saavedra, Fabián Ramírez, and Karem Castro. Transición energética justa o crisis económica territorial: riesgos y oportunidades para Colombia. Transforma, 2026. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/transicion-energetica-justa-crisis-economica-territorial-colombia-Transforma.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Naranjo |first1=Santiago Barbosa |last2=Rey |first2=Catherina |last3=Duarte |first3=Lucía |last4=Saavedra |first4=Paola |last5=Ramírez |first5=Fabián |last6=Castro |first6=Karem |title=Transición energética justa o crisis económica territorial: riesgos y oportunidades para Colombia |publisher=Transforma |date=2026 |url=https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/transicion-energetica-justa-crisis-economica-territorial-colombia-Transforma.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{naranjo2026transicin, author = {Naranjo, Santiago Barbosa and Rey, Catherina and Duarte, Lucía and Saavedra, Paola and Ramírez, Fabián and Castro, Karem}, title = {{Transición energética justa o crisis económica territorial: riesgos y oportunidades para Colombia}}, institution = {Transforma}, year = {2026}, url = {https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/transicion-energetica-justa-crisis-economica-territorial-colombia-Transforma.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }