Transición energética justa o crisis económica territorial: riesgos y oportunidades para Colombia

The policy brief assesses the macroeconomic, financial, and labor risks associated with Colombia's energy transition, particularly for five vulnerable departments. It warns that a disordered transition could lead to the loss of 448,000 jobs by 2035 and increased country risk. To mitigate this, the authors propose an integrated policy package comprising macro-fiscal-financial measures to lower capital costs, territorially differentiated labor protections, and a productive-territorial strategy focusing on 'lever sectors' like electric energy, efficient construction, and agroecology to create sustainable local employment.

• A disordered energy transition in Colombia could result in the loss of 448,000 jobs by 2035, with 21% being direct and 79% indirect losses.
• The risk of job loss is critically concentrated in five vulnerable departments: Meta, Cesar, La Guajira, Casanare, and Arauca, where the extractive sector represents 40% to 50% of departmental production. In these areas, 152,000 jobs are at risk by 2035, with only 7% being direct positions.
• Renewable energy projects alone do not solve the employment crisis because they primarily generate temporary construction jobs; 85% of spending on solar projects and 70% on wind projects are directed toward imports, preventing the creation of local value chains.
• Colombia faces significant macroeconomic risks if the transition is unmanaged, including higher capital costs, currency pressure, and limited fiscal space. As of the end of 2025, the central government's fiscal deficit was 6.4% of GDP and net debt reached 58.5% of GDP.
• The document identifies six 'lever sectors' to drive economic diversification: electric energy, networks and storage (key sector); efficient construction and enabling manufactures (drag sectors); mobility and logistics (key sector); circular economy and bioeconomy (territorial drag); and enabling services (transversal diffusers).
• A transition toward agroecological agro-industry could potentially generate up to 1.5 million jobs nationwide by 2035, specifically benefiting the most vulnerable territories.
• The proposed policy framework requires a specific sequence: the macro-fiscal-financial package must be activated first (0-24 months) to stabilize capital costs and public income, followed by parallel labor protections in vulnerable areas and a longer-term (2-10 years) productive-territorial diversification strategy.
• Regional lessons suggest that Colombia should adopt Brazil's model of linking financing to local content requirements to build permanent productive capacities, and Uruguay's model of institutionalized tripartite dialogue for organized labor exits.

APA

Naranjo, S. B., Rey, C., Duarte, L., Saavedra, P., Ramírez, F., & Castro, K. (2026). Transición energética justa o crisis económica territorial: riesgos y oportunidades para Colombia. Transforma. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/transicion-energetica-justa-crisis-economica-territorial-colombia-Transforma.pdf

Chicago

Naranjo, Santiago Barbosa, Catherina Rey, Lucía Duarte, Paola Saavedra, Fabián Ramírez, and Karem Castro. Transición energética justa o crisis económica territorial: riesgos y oportunidades para Colombia. Transforma, 2026. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/transicion-energetica-justa-crisis-economica-territorial-colombia-Transforma.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Naranjo |first1=Santiago Barbosa |last2=Rey |first2=Catherina |last3=Duarte |first3=Lucía |last4=Saavedra |first4=Paola |last5=Ramírez |first5=Fabián |last6=Castro |first6=Karem |title=Transición energética justa o crisis económica territorial: riesgos y oportunidades para Colombia |publisher=Transforma |date=2026 |url=https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/transicion-energetica-justa-crisis-economica-territorial-colombia-Transforma.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{naranjo2026transicin, author = {Naranjo, Santiago Barbosa and Rey, Catherina and Duarte, Lucía and Saavedra, Paola and Ramírez, Fabián and Castro, Karem}, title = {{Transición energética justa o crisis económica territorial: riesgos y oportunidades para Colombia}}, institution = {Transforma}, year = {2026}, url = {https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/transicion-energetica-justa-crisis-economica-territorial-colombia-Transforma.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }