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The document argues that Asia can achieve a more rapid coal phase-out by stopping the construction of new plants, which would allow 90% of the existing fleet to exceed their 20-year investment recovery period by 2040. It critiques co-firing with ammonia or biomass as expensive and marginally effective, while highlighting successful financing models from IEEFA and the Griffith Asia Institute that make early retirement financially viable through renewables bundling and refinancing. The briefing emphasizes that a just transition requires concessional and multilateral financing from developed nations to support coal-dependent communities.

The document examines the role of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAMs) in preventing carbon leakage and reducing emissions, with a primary focus on the EU CBAM. It argues that while the EU CBAM aims to promote global decarbonisation, it may only slightly reduce overall emissions while imposing significant economic burdens on developing nations, potentially costing them billions in income. The briefing highlights a growing, uncoordinated global trend of countries introducing their own carbon tariffs, which risks fragmenting trade and creating high compliance costs for small producers. It concludes that international cooperation, aligned with UNFCCC principles and supported by climate finance, is essential to ensure these mechanisms support global climate goals without unfairly penalising vulnerable economies.

India aims for 500 GW of non-fossil electricity capacity by 2030, but the target has slipped to 2031-32. While India produces 70-80% of its wind turbines domestically and exports significantly to the US, its solar PV sector is heavily dependent on China, which held over 80% of the global module market in 2022. India is attempting to build domestic solar supply chains via the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme and the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM), though it remains reliant on imports for critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel. Recycling is identified as essential for future supply chain security, with solar PV waste projected to reach nearly 19,000 kt by 2050.

The re-election of Donald Trump may slow US clean technology deployment through the potential repeal of Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) funds and EV tax credits, potentially shifting leadership to emerging economies. The global market for six key technologies—solar PV, wind turbines, EVs, batteries, electrolysers, and heat pumps—is projected to exceed USD 2 trillion by 2035, with global trade reaching USD 575 billion. China currently leads with 70% of the market for these technologies, though it faces risks from proposed US tariffs of 60% on all imports and 100% on EVs. Other nations may benefit: India could become a net exporter of clean technologies by 2035 with annual exports of USD 30 billion, and Brazil is well-positioned in wind turbine blade production, currently accounting for 5% of the global market. In the Global South, renewable energy potential is 400 times greater than fossil fuel production, and solar is expected to have lower upfront costs than coal in Vietnam from 2024 and in India from approximately 2027.

The document assesses whether expanding the mandatory contributor base for climate finance to include emerging economies can bridge the gap between current funding and the estimated USD 1 trillion per year needed by developing countries. It finds that even if candidate emerging countries contributed at the same rate as developed countries, the additional funds would only cover about 5.12% of the minimum need. The briefing argues that developed countries must maintain primary responsibility, highlighting that many current contributors have not met their 'fair share' and that much of the provided finance consists of loans that increase the debt burden of vulnerable nations.

The document links the increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves, droughts, and floods in Argentina to human-caused climate change, specifically highlighting the role of fossil fuel emissions. It notes that while Argentina has a 2050 net-zero target, the government continues to prioritize oil and gas production, particularly in the Vaca Muerta fields, and provides significantly more investment to 'dirty energy' than to renewables. The briefing also identifies a lack of transparent emissions data for individual firms and notes that lobbying by fossil fuel companies has secured production-friendly policies.

Multilateral development banks (MDBs) provided approximately USD 125 billion for climate finance in 2023, a 26% increase from 2022, yet this represents only about 1% of the USD 8.6 trillion needed annually by 2030. A G20 expert panel and credit rating agencies suggest that reforming capital adequacy frameworks (CAFs)—by increasing risk tolerance and leveraging callable capital—could unlock hundreds of billions of dollars in additional lending without risking AAA credit ratings. Specifically, current CAF progress could unlock up to USD 357 billion in lending headroom over the next decade, while S&P estimates potential increases of USD 500 billion to USD 1 trillion. The briefing also highlights the under-utilisation of guarantees, which attract USD 1.5 of private capital for every USD 1 invested, and equity finance, which currently accounts for only 1.8% of commitments. These MDB expansions are viewed as critical for the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), though experts argue MDB lending should complement rather than replace grant-based finance.

Nature-based solutions (NbS) are being integrated into climate strategies across Latin America and the Caribbean to address biodiversity loss and climate change. While they offer significant economic and ecological potential—such as protecting coastal resilience and sequestering carbon—they cannot replace the need for deep emissions reductions from fossil fuels. The document warns that vague definitions of NbS can lead to 'greenwashing' by polluting corporations and risk the displacement of Indigenous and local communities through land grabs and monoculture plantations. For NbS to be sustainable, the author argues they must be based on local knowledge, ensure Free, Prior, and Informed Consent (FPIC), and be supported by diverse financing mechanisms beyond voluntary safeguards.

The bioeconomy, currently valued at USD 4 trillion and projected to reach USD 30 trillion by 2050, is interpreted through three primary lenses: biotechnology, bio-resources, and bio-ecology. While Global North countries like the US, China, and India prioritise biotechnology for economic growth, the EU and regions like the Amazon emphasise sustainability and equity. Brazil is a central actor, launching the G20 Initiative on Bioeconomy (GIB) and implementing national strategies to protect the Amazon. The document highlights that without inclusive frameworks—such as the 'sociobioeconomy' approach—the bioeconomy risks exacerbating social inequalities and environmental degradation. It details successful funding models including payments for ecosystem services in Costa Rica and Mexico, and benefit-sharing for genetic resources via Brazil's SisGen system.

The document explores transition finance as a tool for emerging and developing economies, particularly in Asia, to decarbonise high-emitting sectors that struggle to meet strict green finance criteria. It analyses the taxonomies of Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, and ASEAN, while highlighting risks of 'transition-washing' and the need for science-based targets and independent verification to ensure alignment with 1.5°C pathways.

The briefing highlights that ecosystem services are worth over USD 150 trillion annually, while biodiversity loss costs the global economy more than USD 5 trillion per year. It asserts that the economic costs of nature destruction often exceed the benefits of exploitation, citing examples like EU nitrogen pollution and the Gulf of Mexico's dead zone. The text emphasizes that nature-related risks are transboundary, where deforestation in the Amazon or Southeast Asia impacts regional rainfall and coral reefs. It concludes that investing in biodiversity is significantly more affordable than the energy transition to net-zero, though a funding gap of approximately USD 830 billion per year remains.

The briefing links the increased frequency and intensity of US extreme weather events, such as the July 2023 heatwave and August 2024 California wildfires, to climate change driven by fossil fuels. It highlights that US oil and gas production emissions rose roughly 42% between 2011 and 2022 and notes that 88 large fossil fuel and cement companies are responsible for 48% of the rise in fire-danger conditions in the region. The document argues for corporate accountability, citing a Climate Analytics estimate that the 12 most polluting companies are responsible for USD 15 trillion in economic damages from 1985 to 2018. While the US has seen significant growth in solar and wind capacity and electric vehicle sales, primary energy consumption remains dominated by petroleum (38%), natural gas (36%), and coal (9%) as of 2023.

The document identifies a rapid increase in climate lawsuits against major fossil fuel producers, noting that annual filings nearly tripled since 2015. It categorizes these cases into primary types—most notably compensation for climate damages, misleading advertising, and emissions reductions—and highlights emerging trends such as criminal liability claims and challenges to project permitting. The analysis emphasizes the role of attribution science in quantifying corporate liability and the potential for landmark rulings, such as the one against Shell in the Netherlands, to set global precedents.

The briefing examines the role of deep sea mining in providing minerals like cobalt, nickel, copper, and manganese for clean energy technologies. It concludes that deep sea mining is unlikely to solve immediate supply crunches because the necessary technology for commercial extraction and processing is not yet available, and the steepest growth in mineral demand is expected before 2035. The document highlights significant environmental risks, regulatory uncertainty surrounding the International Seabed Authority (ISA), and the potential for alternatives such as sustainable land mining, recycling, and material substitution to meet demand.

The document examines debt-for-nature swaps, where foreign currency debt is cancelled in exchange for local currency investment in environmental projects. While popular in Latin America and the Caribbean, the tool is described as having a very small market impact, offsetting only 0.11% of debt payments for low- and middle-income countries between 1987 and 2023. The IMF suggests that conditional grants or comprehensive debt restructuring are often more effective depending on debt sustainability. Case studies from Bolivia, Costa Rica, and Ecuador highlight risks including loss of national sovereignty, negative real interest rates, and the exclusion of Indigenous communities.

The briefing establishes that fossil fuels are responsible for approximately 70% of carbon dioxide emissions since the industrial revolution, with a small number of companies contributing a disproportionate share. It highlights the role of attribution science in linking specific extreme weather events to climate change and details the growing trend of using the 'polluter pays' principle in litigation and legislation to hold these companies financially accountable. The document further argues that to meet the 1.5C target, global fossil fuel production must decrease significantly by 2030, supported by a transition to renewable energy and electric vehicles.

The document argues that agroecology-aligned practices—such as agroforestry, intercropping, and legume rotation—enhance climate resilience by improving yields with fewer synthetic inputs, increasing biodiversity, and sequestering carbon. It highlights that combining multiple practices maximises benefits, which often increase over time, although outcomes remain highly context-specific. The paper also links these practices to improved farmer health by reducing pesticide exposure and suggests that agroforestry and soil carbon sequestration can significantly support Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

The briefing examines the discrepancy between methane emissions reported by the oil and gas industry and those found through independent measurements. It highlights that industry-led estimation methodologies, such as the API Compendium, often fail to account for 'super-emitter' events, leading to reports that may be 94% lower than independent estimates. The author calls for regulators to mandate measured rather than estimated data to verify climate claims and ensure the effectiveness of the Global Methane Pledge.

The briefing outlines how the EU can sustain its climate leadership following the June 2024 elections by linking emissions reductions to energy security, consumer cost savings, and industrial competitiveness. It highlights the success of the RePowerEU Plan in reducing Russian gas imports and notes that wind and solar power saved EU consumers approximately EUR 100 billion between 2021 and 2023. The document emphasizes that investing in green technology and implementing social safety nets, such as retraining programmes, will ensure the transition is competitive and inclusive.

The briefing argues that current oil and gas production trajectories are incompatible with the Paris Agreement, with projected production by 2050 potentially exceeding 1.5°C-aligned needs by 260% for oil and 210% for gas. It advocates for a coordinated global phase-out led by the G7 and G20, emphasizing that new extraction projects must cease immediately. The author highlights the necessity of climate finance, noting a gap between current annual climate finance (USD 1.3 trillion) and the required green transition investment for emerging and developing economies (USD 2.4 trillion). To ensure equity, the document suggests assessing transition capacity based on GDP per capita, government revenue shares from fossil fuels, and workforce employment in the sector, while calling for the phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies and the implementation of innovative funding, such as taxes on fossil fuel company revenues.