Do we need deep sea mining for the energy transition?

This briefing by Zero Carbon Analytics examines whether deep sea mining is necessary for the clean energy transition. It concludes that deep sea mining is unlikely to alleviate short-term mineral supply crunches because the technology for commercial extraction and processing is not yet available, and the steepest growth in mineral demand is expected before 2035. The document highlights that there is no physical scarcity of critical minerals in the earth's crust, but rather supply risks driven by lack of investment, recycling, and geopolitical concentration of processing in China. It suggests that sustainable land mining, supply diversification, recycling, and material substitution are more viable alternatives to deep sea mining, which carries significant unknown environmental risks.

• Deep sea mining is unlikely to resolve short-term mineral supply bottlenecks because the industry lacks the necessary commercial extraction and processing technology, while the highest growth in mineral demand is projected to occur before 2035.
• There is no actual physical scarcity of critical minerals in the earth's crust; instead, supply crunches are caused by a lack of investment, recycling, and geopolitical risks such as resource nationalism and export restrictions.
• The International Seabed Authority (ISA) aims to establish mining rules by 2025, but no official commercial mining has occurred in international waters. While 31 exploration permits have been issued since 2001, they do not allow for-profit activities.
• Deep sea mining poses significant environmental risks, including potential damage to carbon sequestration, biodiversity, and global temperature cycles. A 2024 study discovered that polymetallic nodules produce oxygen without photosynthesis, suggesting a complex ecosystem role that necessitates a cautionary approach.
• Mineral processing is heavily concentrated in China, which extracts 82% of global graphite and 62% of rare earths, and processes over 50% of the world's manganese. This concentration is viewed as a risk by the US and EU, leading to policies like the US Inflation Reduction Act and the EU Raw Materials Act to diversify supply.
• Alternatives to deep sea mining include sustainable land mining, diversifying supply chains (with countries like Indonesia and India playing key roles), increasing recycling rates, and developing material substitutions such as cobalt-free batteries.
• Deep sea mining may not be cost-competitive; one report indicates that the cost of seafloor restoration (USD 5.3 million to 5.7 million per square kilometre) could exceed the revenue a typical company would generate from the activity.

APA

Team, Z. (2024). Do we need deep sea mining for the energy transition? Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/do-we-need-deep-sea-mining-for-the-energy-transition/

Chicago

Team, ZCA. Do we need deep sea mining for the energy transition? Zero Carbon Analytics, 2024. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/do-we-need-deep-sea-mining-for-the-energy-transition/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Team |first1=ZCA |title=Do we need deep sea mining for the energy transition? |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=5 September 2024 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/do-we-need-deep-sea-mining-for-the-energy-transition/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{team2024need, author = {Team, ZCA}, title = {{Do we need deep sea mining for the energy transition?}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2024}, month = sep, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/do-we-need-deep-sea-mining-for-the-energy-transition/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }