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The Union of Concerned Scientists argues that Illinois can cost-effectively meet its Clean Power Plan (CPP) target—reducing carbon emissions by 34 percent below 2012 levels by 2030—by adopting a "Clean Path Case." This approach involves strengthening the state's renewable portfolio standard (RPS) and energy efficiency portfolio standard (EEPS) alongside a mass-based emissions trading program. The analysis suggests this pathway would yield nearly 6,000 MW of new wind and solar capacity, reduce typical household electricity costs by 9.4 percent by 2030, and generate $14.3 billion in cumulative health and economic benefits through 2030 by reducing CO2, SO2, and NOx pollution.

The Union of Concerned Scientists proposes a 'Clean Path Case' for Minnesota to meet its Clean Power Plan (CPP) target of reducing power sector emissions by 34 percent below 2012 levels by 2030. This pathway involves strengthening the state's Renewable Electricity Standard (RES) and Energy Efficiency Resource Standard (EERS), alongside a mass-based carbon emissions trading program. The analysis suggests this approach would yield over 4,500 MW of new wind and solar capacity, save the average household $54 annually by 2030, and generate $205 million in average annual revenue from carbon allowance sales between 2022 and 2030. Additionally, the plan is projected to provide $111 million in public health and economic benefits by reducing CO2, SO2, and NOx emissions.

The Union of Concerned Scientists proposes a "Clean Path Case" for Pennsylvania to meet its Clean Power Plan target of reducing emissions by 29 million tons (24% below 2012 levels) by 2030. This pathway combines a mass-based carbon emissions trading program with strengthened renewable energy and energy efficiency policies. The analysis indicates that this approach would yield over 10,700 MW of new wind and solar capacity, generate $804 million in average annual revenue from carbon allowance auctions, and provide $4.5 billion in cumulative health and economic benefits through 2030. Long-term, the plan is projected to reduce typical residential electricity bills by 3.4% by 2030 compared to a reference case with no new policies.

The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) utilized the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) to assess the Clean Power Plan. The analysis incorporates modified cost and performance assumptions for various energy technologies, including a rejection of EIA 'learning' curves for mature technologies and specific adjustments for nuclear, coal, and renewables. The study compares four scenarios: a Reference Case, a CPP National Trading Case, a CPP No Trading Case, and a 'Clean Path' Case involving enhanced state-level policies in Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

The document analyzes the evolution of ethanol use in the U.S., noting that while E10 blends have reduced oil dependence, corn-based ethanol causes significant environmental damage and can spike global food prices. It argues for a shift toward advanced biofuels derived from wastes, agricultural residues, and perennial crops to lower lifecycle emissions and protect biodiversity. The report forecasts that by 2050, emissions from biorefineries, agriculture, and land use can be substantially reduced through technological optimization and smarter crop choices.

The document highlights a growing problem where U.S. transportation fuels are becoming 'dirtier' as oil companies shift toward unconventional sources like tar sands and use high-emission extraction methods such as fracking. It argues that while vehicle efficiency has improved by 20 percent, these gains are undermined by the increasing emissions associated with extracting and refining oil, which can vary from less than 50 to 250 kilograms of CO2e per barrel. To counter this, the report advocates for eliminating wasteful practices like flaring, requiring better emissions disclosure, and shifting toward advanced biofuels made from wastes and perennial grasses. It also emphasizes the role of electric vehicles, noting that their climate benefit depends on the grid; for example, charging an EV in California produces only 35 percent of the emissions of a conventional vehicle.

The Union of Concerned Scientists proposes a "Clean Path" for Virginia to comply with the Clean Power Plan by transitioning from voluntary to mandatory renewable energy and energy efficiency targets and implementing a mass-based carbon emissions-trading program. The analysis suggests this approach would reduce CO2 emissions by 77 million tons through 2030 compared to a reference case, lower typical residential electricity bills by 5% by 2030, and generate an average of $241 million in annual auction revenue for state investments. The report highlights Virginia's current underutilization of its renewable potential, noting that non-hydro renewables accounted for only 2.8% of electricity generation in 2014.

The report analyzes the Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative (EIPC) study to demonstrate that aggressive carbon reductions in the U.S. electric sector are achievable with minimal additional cost. By re-evaluating EIPC data, Synapse Energy Economics found that a 'Carbon Reduction' scenario—featuring massive wind build-out and coal retirements—costs approximately the same as a 'Business as Usual' scenario when carbon revenues are recycled. The analysis shows that this path would allow the MISO and PJM regions to significantly over-comply with the Clean Power Plan's emissions targets while maintaining grid reliability.

The Union of Concerned Scientists views the D.C. Circuit Court's decision to keep the Clean Power Plan in effect as a victory for climate action, noting that many U.S. states are already making significant progress toward the plan's 2022 and 2030 carbon emission benchmarks.

The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) submitted a public statement to the EPA supporting the Clean Power Plan (CPP) while advocating for a mass-based emissions trading approach for states subject to a federal implementation plan. UCS argues that a mass-based system provides greater certainty for achieving emissions budgets and better integration with future carbon markets. The document provides detailed recommendations for both rate-based and mass-based models, including the expansion of eligible zero-emission resources to include distributed generation and energy efficiency. It also proposes modifications to the Clean Energy Incentive Program (CEIP) to broaden project eligibility timelines and ensure benefits reach low-income communities. Additionally, UCS emphasizes the need to protect voluntary renewable energy markets and suggests implementing interim compliance provisions to prevent emissions deficits.

The document details how palm oil production, primarily in Indonesia and Malaysia, drives deforestation and releases significant carbon and methane emissions, particularly through the draining and burning of peatlands. It notes that while Indonesia and Malaysia have implemented some protections and the RSPO seeks to improve sustainability, RSPO standards remain insufficient. The text highlights a shift in the supply chain, with over 60 percent of globally traded palm oil covered by deforestation-free commitments as of 2016, while warning that future expansion in countries like Brazil and Colombia must be managed to protect forests.

The document outlines a strategy for Virginia to exceed its Clean Power Plan goals through a revenue-raising carbon trading program and mandatory energy standards. It highlights the state's significant renewable energy potential and projects substantial economic and health benefits, including billions in capital investments and pollution avoidance by 2030.

The report argues that China, which has traditionally kept its nuclear weapons off alert, is seeing internal military discussions about adopting a 'launch on warning' posture. This shift is driven by concerns over U.S. missile defenses, high-precision conventional weapons, and a perceived U.S. pursuit of invulnerability. The author warns that such a change would increase the risk of accidental or mistaken nuclear launch and recommends that the U.S. acknowledge mutual vulnerability and limit its own rapid-launch options to discourage China from raising its alert level.

The report analyzes pathways for California, Oregon, and Washington to reduce transportation petroleum use by 50% by 2030. It identifies a 'Half the Oil' (HtO) Pathway that distributes reductions across travel demand management, vehicle efficiency, and alternative fuel deployment. While existing policies are projected to reduce consumption by 24% in California and 8% in Oregon and Washington by 2030, achieving the 50% target requires extending and accelerating these measures. The analysis finds that relying on a single category of strategy is insufficient to meet the target, and that Washington faces greater challenges due to a lack of enforceable alternative fuel and zero-emission vehicle policies.

The document outlines a pathway for California to halve its oil use by 2030 by extending and enhancing existing policies on vehicle efficiency, electrification, and land use planning.

The document examines the decline of midsize family farms in the U.S., using Iowa as a primary case study, and proposes a national food policy to connect these farms with institutional buyers to create jobs and improve environmental sustainability.

The document details the use of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) to model energy pathways for Virginia. It outlines specific adjustments made to capital costs, performance projections, and policy assumptions for various electricity generating technologies compared to EIA benchmarks. The analysis compares a 'Reference Case' of existing policies against a 'Clean Path Case' involving Clean Power Plan compliance, mandatory energy efficiency standards, and a Renewable Portfolio Standard for Virginia.

The document provides a technical appendix describing the life cycle emissions modeling for urban buses in California, comparing diesel, compressed natural gas (CNG), hydrogen fuel cell, and battery electric options. It details modifications to the CA-GREET 2.0 and Vision 2.0 models to better reflect California-specific fuel pathways and electricity grid mixes. Key findings include the significant reduction of global warming emissions when using 100% renewable energy for electric buses and the role of biomass and coal in the grid's particulate matter emissions. The analysis also examines the impact of low-carbon biofuels and low-NOx engines on overall emissions profiles.

The report analyzes the intersection of climate change, World Heritage sites, and tourism, arguing that climate change acts as a 'threat multiplier' that degrades the outstanding universal value (OUV) of these sites while simultaneously threatening the tourism economies that depend on them. Through 30 case studies across 29 countries, it demonstrates that impacts range from glacier melt and sea-level rise to increased wildfire regimes and ocean acidification. The document emphasizes that while sustainable tourism can support conservation, unplanned development often increases site vulnerability. It concludes with recommendations for intergovernmental organizations, governments, and site managers to integrate climate science into management plans, reduce tourism's carbon footprint, and empower local and indigenous communities in adaptation efforts.

The report identifies 'climate equity hotspots' along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts, where projected sea level rise and tidal flooding combine with socioeconomic risks such as poverty and minority population share. It argues that federal and state agencies must prioritize these vulnerable communities in funding and infrastructure investments to ensure an equitable response to climate change. The analysis evaluated thirty-five coastal counties across nine states and provides case studies for five specific locations, including Dorchester County, MD, and Plaquemines Parish, LA, to illustrate the challenges of environmental injustice and sinking lands.