China’s Military Calls for Putting Its Nuclear Forces on Alert

The report argues that China, which has traditionally kept its nuclear weapons off alert, is seeing internal military discussions about adopting a 'launch on warning' posture. This shift is driven by concerns over U.S. missile defenses, high-precision conventional weapons, and a perceived U.S. pursuit of invulnerability. The author warns that such a change would increase the risk of accidental or mistaken nuclear launch and recommends that the U.S. acknowledge mutual vulnerability and limit its own rapid-launch options to discourage China from raising its alert level.

• China has historically maintained a conservative nuclear posture where warheads are kept separated from missiles, meaning its deployed nuclear weapons would be counted as zero under the 2010 New START agreement rules.
• Recent evidence suggests the Chinese military is discussing a shift to a 'launch on warning' posture, which would allow retaliatory strikes before incoming enemy warheads detonate.
• The push for higher alert levels is driven by Chinese military concerns regarding U.S. technical advances, specifically missile defense systems in East Asia and 'rapid global strike' conventional capabilities that could threaten China's retaliatory capacity.
• Chinese military analysts believe that U.S. refusal to acknowledge mutual vulnerability suggests the U.S. may be seeking invulnerability to Chinese retaliation, which increases the risk of war and nuclear escalation.
• A shift to high alert would increase the risk of accidental, unauthorized, or mistaken nuclear launches, particularly during crises, mirroring dangerous historical experiences with U.S. and Soviet/Russian warning systems.
• The report recommends several U.S. policy changes to discourage China from raising its alert level, including acknowledging mutual vulnerability, rejecting rapid-launch options, adopting a 'sole purpose' nuclear doctrine, and limiting ballistic missile defenses.

APA

Kulacki, G. (2016). China’s Military Calls for Putting Its Nuclear Forces on Alert. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2016/02/China-Hair-Trigger-full-report.pdf

Chicago

Kulacki, Gregory. China’s Military Calls for Putting Its Nuclear Forces on Alert. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2016. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2016/02/China-Hair-Trigger-full-report.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kulacki |first1=Gregory |title=China’s Military Calls for Putting Its Nuclear Forces on Alert |publisher=Union of Concerned Scientists |date=January 2016 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2016/02/China-Hair-Trigger-full-report.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kulacki2016chinas, author = {Kulacki, Gregory}, title = {{China’s Military Calls for Putting Its Nuclear Forces on Alert}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2016}, month = jan, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2016/02/China-Hair-Trigger-full-report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }