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2,011 documents from South African Institute of International Affairs
EnErgy DialoguEs in africa: is thE granD Ethiopian rEnaissancE Dam transforming Ethiopia’s rEgional rolE?
The paper examines the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) as a catalyst for Ethiopia's transition toward a low-carbon, 'green' economy and its ambition to become a primary electricity exporter in East Africa. It details the dam's technical specifications, its integration into Ethiopia's Growth and Transformation Plans, and the role of regional bodies like the Eastern Africa Power Pool (EAPP) and the Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA) in facilitating energy trade. The author argues that while the GERD offers a significant opportunity for regional integration, its success depends on overcoming hydro-hegemonic tensions with downstream states, improving trans-boundary environmental assessments, and harmonizing national energy policies across the region.
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Document type: Research paper
Case Studies in Base Metal Processing and Beneficiation: Lessons from East Asia and the SADC Region
The report analyzes base metal beneficiation in Mozambique, Namibia, Botswana, and Zambia, comparing their outcomes with the successful industrial policies of Japan and China. It argues that China's state-led expansion of smelting and refining capacity has caused a 'Great Compression' of margins, making autonomous beneficiation in Africa commercially unattractive. The study concludes that African countries can only succeed in beneficiation through comprehensive industrial policies and strategic partnerships, particularly with Chinese state-owned enterprises.
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Document type: Research paper
G-20 DEVELOPMENT AGENDA AND AFRICAN PRIORITIES: AN UPDATE
The document examines the interaction between the G-20 and Africa, noting that while South Africa is the only permanent African member, the G-20's agenda significantly impacts the continent. It evaluates the G-20 Development Working Group's (DWG) progress on priorities such as infrastructure, domestic resource mobilisation, and financial inclusion. The author argues that while there is overlap with the AU's Agenda 2063, momentum has been lost in supporting African regional economic integration, and further efforts are needed to leverage G-20 resources for sustainable infrastructure and local capital markets.
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Document type: Research paper
Property and Prosperity: Reforming Landholding in Africa
The document examines the complex hybrid of customary and statutory landholding systems across Africa, utilizing data from the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM). It highlights that while weak property rights hinder economic growth and agricultural productivity, the administrative costs and institutional limitations of full formal titling make it an impractical immediate solution. Instead, the author proposes a gradual approach: strengthening informal tenure security, improving state administrative capacity through computerization, and investing in rural infrastructure to boost land value and productivity.
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Document type: Policy brief
‘I Didn’t Struggle to be Poor’: The Interwovenness of Party, State and Business in Mozambique
The document examines the systemic overlap between political party officials, government officials, and the business sector in Mozambique, a phenomenon termed 'interwovenness'. It argues that the ruling party, Frelimo, has captured state power, leading to a culture of patronage and cronyism where state resources are exploited for party interests. While Mozambique has established various anti-corruption laws and institutions, such as the GCCC and the Law on Public Integrity, the brief contends that these are poorly implemented due to a lack of political will and the influence of Frelimo over the legislature and judiciary. The author highlights specific vulnerabilities in the extractive industries and foreign investment contracts, which are exempt from public procurement transparency rules. The brief recommends that the government publicise extractive industry concessions, that civil society increase its monitoring of business deals, and that the APRM Panel of Eminent Persons push for the domestication of the AU Convention against Corruption.
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Document type: Policy brief
LEARNING FROM CHINA? MANUFACTURING, INVESTMENT, AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER IN NIGERIA
The paper investigates Chinese manufacturing investment in Nigeria, finding limited but significant technology transfer, particularly in automobile assembly and light manufacturing. While Chinese firms provide employment and affordable machinery, the study notes a lack of sectoral clustering in special economic zones and weak backward linkages to the local economy. It highlights the role of Nigerian import substitution policies in attracting investment but warns of reputational risks due to unethical business practices by some Chinese firms.
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Document type: Research paper
THE WEALTH WITHIN, THE WEALTH UNSEEN: REFLECTIONS ON THE GULF OF GUINEA’S MARITIME DOMAIN
The document examines how political instability, corruption, and a focus on onshore security led to 'sea blindness' in the Gulf of Guinea, creating a security gap exploited by pirates and transnational criminal networks. It details the region's vast natural resources, including oil, gas, and minerals, and analyzes the shift toward maritime security since 2012. The author evaluates various responses, from national naval upgrades in Nigeria and Ghana to regional frameworks like the Yaoundé Declaration and international support from the EU and UN, concluding that the primary challenge remains translating high-level policy into operational action.
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Document type: Research paper
Modi’s New Foreign Policy Agenda and the Implications for Africa
The document analyzes the shift in Indian foreign policy under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, moving toward a more proactive and assertive 'geo-economic' approach. It examines how this strategy integrates Africa into India's broader geostrategic space, stretching from the Suez to the Pacific, and evaluates the outcomes of the third India–Africa Forum Summit (IAFS III). The authors argue that while India seeks to enhance its soft power and energy security, the relationship must evolve from a focus on Indian-sourced credit lines to partnerships that support African industrialization and manufacturing.
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Document type: Research paper
Adept negotiations needed by Africa at FOCAC
The research paper examines how China's 'one road-two belts' strategy, the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), and increased UN peacekeeping commitments impact Africa. It highlights a shift toward regional development nodes on Africa's east coast and the Horn of Africa, while cautioning that Africa's strategic importance to Beijing is limited compared to China's immediate region and its interests in Asia and Europe.
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Document type: Research paper
Restoring Multilateral Trade Cooperation
The document argues that the WTO is facing a systemic crisis due to the failure of the Doha Round and the rise of Mega-Preferential Trade Arrangements (MPTAs). It recommends terminating or suspending the Doha Round, finalizing the Trade Facilitation Agreement, and creating mechanisms to 'dock' plurilateral agreements into the WTO system to maintain the organization's central role. The authors emphasize the need for new leadership from both developed and emerging economies, particularly China, to align trade liberalization with development needs.
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Document type: Policy brief
Major Constraints of the Environmental Impact Assessment Process in Botswana
The document identifies critical weaknesses in Botswana's Environmental Impact Assessment (EA) framework, specifically the lack of independence of the Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA), severe human resource shortages, and the financial instability of the Botswana Environmental Impact Assessment Practitioners Association (BEAPA). It highlights how ministerial exemptions and security agency carve-outs can compromise environmental protection, citing the Pilikwe radioactive waste facility as a case of insufficient public consultation. To address these, the author recommends developing operational guidelines for exemptions, recruiting more technical staff, and diversifying BEAPA's revenue streams.
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Document type: Policy brief
Drivers of Regional Integration: Value Chains, Investment and New Forms of Co-operation
This collection of papers analyzes regional integration efforts in three key areas: South America, Southern Africa, and Russia. It argues that while traditional trade-led integration has often stalled, new drivers such as regional value chains (RVCs), energy pooling, and strategic investment shifts offer paths toward deeper cooperation. In South America, the report finds a lack of a clear 'hub country' and significant infrastructure gaps hindering RVCs. In Southern Africa, it highlights the potential of the Southern Africa Power Pool (SAPP) and the dual role of South Africa as both a catalyst and a diverter of regional investment. In Russia, the analysis focuses on a strategic 'turn to the East,' shifting investment focus from Europe toward the Asia-Pacific region and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).
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Document type: Report
Southern African Development Community Health Policy: Under Construction
The document argues that regional health policy in Southern Africa is 'under construction' and requires updated frameworks to address gaps in the SADC Regional Indicative Strategic Plan (RISDP). It proposes five key areas for innovation: strengthening cross-border health initiatives for HIV/AIDS and malaria, renewing the expired SADC Pharmaceutical Business Plan to combat medicine stockouts, increasing civil society engagement for public accountability, developing regional health diplomacy through South-South cooperation and diplomat training, and transitioning from disease-specific 'vertical' healthcare to 'integrated' systems that combine vertical and horizontal approaches.
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Document type: Policy brief
CHINA–AFRICA CO-OPERATION BEYOND EXTRACTIVE INDUSTRIES: THE CASE OF CHINESE AGRICULTURAL ASSISTANCE IN WEST AFRICA
The document examines China's shift from extractive industries toward diversified economic co-operation in West Africa, specifically in agriculture. It contrasts Chinese assistance with Western aid, highlighting a 'win-win' South-South model based on China's own domestic agricultural success. While traditionally focused on technical assistance and food crops, recent trends show an increase in state-owned enterprise (SOE) involvement in cash crops and biofuels. The authors recommend that China focus on equitable investments and that West African governments encourage agro-industrial upgrading to add value to the regional agro-business chain.
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Document type: Policy brief
LEARNING BY DOING: CHINA–AFRICA CO-OPERATION AND STATE LEARNING
The paper contends that China's rapid development is driven by a 'learning state' capable of continuous policy iteration and adjustment, rather than a set of static policies. It critiques the tendency of African nations to import 'finished' Chinese policy models—like Special Economic Zones (SEZs)—without the underlying institutional capacity for experimentation and refinement. The author suggests that China-Africa cooperation should shift toward transferring the 'know-how' of policy evolution, potentially through new funding mechanisms and research collaborations that prioritize 'learning by doing'.
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Document type: Policy brief
South Africa and AGOA: what is at stake?
The document examines the threat of the United States suspending South Africa's agricultural preferences under AGOA. This tension stems from disputes over anti-dumping duties on US chicken and delays in finalizing veterinary protocols for poultry, beef, and pork imports. While South Africa's total exports to the US exceeded US$8 billion in 2014, with nearly 40% benefiting from AGOA, the agriculture sector is particularly vulnerable. The author argues that the unilateral nature of AGOA creates instability and suggests that South Africa and other African nations should pursue formal negotiated bilateral agreements to ensure greater trade security and avoid the leveraging of preferences to resolve trade disputes.
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Document type: Research paper
SAIIA YOUTH POLICY COMMITTEE STATEMENT ON COP 21
The SAIIA Youth Policy Committee (YPC) advocates for a legally binding agreement at COP21 that emphasizes high ambition, the integration of adaptation and mitigation, and predictable finance for developing countries. The YPC calls for the inclusion of an adaptation goal in the Paris agreement, the use of indigenous knowledge in local strategies, and the implementation of 'no regret' and flexible adaptation strategies. It further argues that developed countries must fund these efforts and that climate change should be integrated into school curricula to maintain youth commitment.
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Document type: Statement
Value Chains in Southern Africa: Entry Points for Donor Impact
The report evaluates the PSDP's interventions with SMMEs in Botswana, categorising them into those hindered by the enabling environment, nascent manufacturers, and those lacking specific skills training. While individual interventions showed positive results, the report highlights a failure in policy implementation regarding micro-financing and suggests that targeted donor support for audited SMMEs can unlock regional value chains in markets like Namibia and Zambia.
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Document type: Report
South Africa’s Development Cooperation: Opportunities in the Global Arena
The paper analyzes South Africa's role as a development partner, emphasizing its comparative advantage in Africa due to geographic and political proximity. It contrasts South Africa's 'development partner' identity with traditional 'donor' models, noting that South African aid often includes non-traditional activities like military protection and student scholarships. The author argues that while South Africa lacks a cohesive strategy and transparency in its South-South Cooperation (SSC), the UN can act as a neutral broker to help operationalize SSC principles and integrate southern perspectives into global development architecture.
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Document type: Research paper
Factory Southern Africa? SACU in Global Value Chains Summary Report
The report analyzes the integration of SACU countries—Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, and Swaziland—into global and regional value chains. It finds that while the region is generally at the margins of GVCs, there are significant opportunities in the automotive and apparel sectors. The authors argue that South Africa can serve as a 'gateway' for the region, linking smaller member states to global networks through advanced services and infrastructure. Key barriers identified include geographical remoteness, small market scale, restrictive trade policies (particularly in agribusiness), and gaps in technical skills. The report concludes that GVC participation positively correlates with labor productivity, especially through backward linkages (imported inputs), and suggests a policy framework focused on economic densification, skills upgrading, and open regionalism.
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Document type: Report