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2,011 documents from South African Institute of International Affairs
FRANCE IN THE INDIAN OCEAN: A GEOPOLITICAL PERSPECTIVE AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR AFRICA
The document analyzes France's strategic use of its territories, military presence, and diplomatic ties to maintain influence in the Indian Ocean Region. It highlights the tension between established powers like France and emerging economies such as China, India, and South Africa, particularly regarding the 'Blue Economy' and maritime security.
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Document type: Policy brief
2017 address by SAIIA National Chairman Mr Fred T Phaswana
Mr Fred T Phaswana warns that the rise of protectionism, populism, and 'post-truth politics' threatens the international cooperation required to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris climate change agreement. He highlights the danger of a 'race-to-the-bottom' in corporate taxation and the erosion of multilateralism. Domestically, he argues that South Africa's reputation has been damaged by internal political instability and the government's intention to withdraw from the International Criminal Court, urging the country to remain an active shaper of a fair rules-based global order.
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Document type: Statement
Africa cannot afford business as usual under new AUC chair
The document discusses the transition of the African Union Commission (AUC) leadership to Moussa Faki Mahamat. It emphasizes that the AU cannot return to 'business as usual' due to a volatile global political landscape and the urgent need for financial autonomy. A key focus is the implementation of a 0.2% levy on African imports to reduce reliance on international donors, aiming to provide $1.2 billion in overall revenue in 2017 and ensure peace operations are 25% self-funded. The text also highlights the necessity of institutional reforms proposed by President Paul Kagame and the need for the AU to address root causes of conflict and migration in countries such as Libya, Somalia, and Sudan.
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Document type: Research paper
Commodity prices and investment prospects for African countries in a brave new world
The paper argues that African countries should pivot away from fossil fuels and nuclear energy toward minerals and metals essential for the Fourth Industrial Revolution, such as copper and platinum. It highlights a decline in mineral exploration in Africa, particularly South Africa, and warns against the 'resource curse' associated with oil wealth. The author contends that the falling cost of renewables and the rise of smart technologies make fossil fuel investments risky, urging African policymakers to align industrial policies with the demand for green energy minerals to avoid premature de-industrialisation.
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Document type: Research paper
china-africa-factsheet-0bdf8478d994f3e2.pdf
The document outlines the evolution of China-Africa relations from early diplomatic ties to a complex modern partnership. It highlights the role of FOCAC as a primary vehicle for cooperation, the shift toward a 'New Normal' characterized by slowing economic growth and commodity price drops, and China's increasing involvement in African peace and security, marking a departure from its traditional 'non-interference' policy.
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Document type: Fact sheet
TRANSPARENCY IN BENEFICIAL OWNERSHIP
The document examines the global push for beneficial ownership transparency to combat illicit financial flows, money laundering, and corruption. It focuses on the G20 High-Level Principles and the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) guidelines, analyzing how these standards are applied across diverse institutional contexts. A significant portion of the paper is dedicated to South Africa's efforts to align its domestic laws, such as the FIC Amendment Bill, with these global norms. It also provides a comparative analysis of implementation in G20 countries (including the UK, US, China, and Russia) and African nations (Nigeria and Ghana), highlighting common obstacles such as weak institutional capacity, political resistance, and the misuse of shell companies and trusts.
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Document type: Research paper
CAN THE APRM BE AN EFFECTIVE TOOL TO MONITOR AGENDA 2063 AND THE SDGs?
The document explores the potential for the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) to monitor Agenda 2063 and the SDGs, noting strong normative and thematic alignment. However, it identifies critical barriers, including administrative weaknesses, lack of funding, and slow review cycles, which currently render the APRM incapable of the extensive monitoring required. The authors suggest that for the APRM to succeed, it must undergo substantial reform, improve the frequency of its reviews, and enhance its data-gathering capabilities through ICT and partnerships.
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Document type: Research paper
INVASIVE PLANTS AND FOOD SECURITY IN AFRICA: THE POTENTIAL OF EARTH OBSERVATION DATA
The document examines the detrimental impact of invasive plant species on Africa's rangelands and croplands, noting that they can reduce the productivity of major grain foods like maize by up to 45%. It highlights a gap in current policy frameworks, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and AU Commission strategies, which lack coherent protocols for managing these species. The author proposes using Earth Observation (EO) technology—specifically free datasets like Sentinel-2—to create spatial occurrence maps that identify priority zones and propagation corridors. The brief recommends that international bodies like the CBD, AfriGEOSS, and UN-SPIDER facilitate case studies and policy amendments to incorporate EO data into land management and food security strategies.
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Document type: Policy brief
Trump's ascension to office: can he and will he do what he says? Implications for Africa
The research paper examines the likelihood of Donald Trump implementing his campaign promises and the resulting implications for Africa. It suggests that while Trump's focus is domestic, his approach to the Paris Climate Change Agreement, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), and US aid programmes could vary from total withdrawal to minimal impact due to institutional constraints and bipartisan support in Congress. The author concludes that Africa may be overlooked by the administration, making it necessary for African nations to be united in their engagement with the US and to diversify relations with other global players.
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Document type: Research paper
Germany’s role in the 2030 Agenda: a view from South Africa
The paper examines the role of Germany in supporting the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development from a South African perspective. It highlights the tension between the need for global public goods and a rising trend of protectionism in the North. The author argues that Germany, as a resilient economy with a history of positive engagement with developing countries, is uniquely positioned to facilitate partnerships and advocate for structural reforms—such as addressing illicit financial flows—to ensure the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are met.
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Document type: Research paper
Regulations for Foreign Investor Act weighted towards dispute settlement
The author argues that South Africa's new investment regulations, designed to replace terminated bilateral investment treaties, fail to adequately protect foreign investors. The regulations focus almost exclusively on section 13 of the Protection of Investment Act regarding dispute settlement, proposing a mediation process managed by the Department of Trade and Industry. The author identifies several risks, including potential conflicts of interest due to the department's custody of confidential documents, the lack of a requirement for mediators to be lawyers, and the absence of a link to arbitration or specialized investment courts. The text suggests that the reliance on mediation may be an attempt to follow World Bank advice that ignores the practical difficulties of using mediation for high-stakes investment disputes.
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Document type: Research paper
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION READINESS: LESSONS FROM THE 2015/16 EL NIÑO FOR CLIMATE READINESS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA
The 2015/16 El Niño caused the worst drought in Southern Africa in at least 35 years, leading to widespread food insecurity and agricultural losses. While regional coordination mechanisms like SADC and UN agencies provided frameworks for response, the document finds that national implementation capacity remains low across the region. Even in South Africa, the highest-capacity state, coordination challenges and resource gaps hampered effectiveness. The paper argues for a shift from reactive 'response' to proactive 'prevention' and the scaling of local, science-guided adaptation strategies to improve long-term climate readiness.
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Document type: Research paper
EMERGING TRENDS IN AFRICA’S ELECTORAL PROCESSES
The document analyzes electoral trends in Africa between 2015 and early 2016, identifying four negative trends: constitutional alterations to extend term limits, manipulation of electoral calendars, harassment of opposition candidates, and low voter turnout. It highlights a gap between the existence of continental democratic frameworks, such as the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (ACDEG), and the political will of governing elites to implement them. The authors recommend structural reforms, respect for electoral calendars, and the adoption of social media codes of conduct to protect freedom of expression.
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Document type: Policy brief
CHINESE MEDIA, KENYAN LIVES: AN ETHNOGRAPHIC INQUIRY INTO CCTV AFRICA’S HEAD OFFICES
The paper examines the internal operations of CCTV Africa in Nairobi, finding that while employees generally appreciate the stability and salaries compared to local media, there are significant tensions regarding censorship of China-related news, lack of safety protocols for field reporters, and a rigid organizational hierarchy where supervisory roles are reserved for Chinese nationals.
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Document type: Research paper
OWN WAYS OF DOING: NATIONAL PRIDE, POWER AND CHINA’S POLITICAL CALCULUS IN ETHIOPIA
The paper analyzes the relationship between China and Ethiopia, highlighting how Ethiopia's 'developmental state' model and strategic location in the Horn of Africa make it a key partner for China. It details Chinese investments in infrastructure, energy, and telecommunications, while noting that China's political influence is constrained by Ethiopia's strong national pride and centralized power structures. The document also explores China's increasing role in regional stability through the African Union and IGAD.
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Document type: Research paper
Zambia’s Constitutional Groundhog Day: Why National Debate about Constitutional Reform Is Not Going Away Anytime Soon
The document analyzes the history of constitutional instability in Zambia, focusing on the 2016 amendment process and the subsequent failure of the national referendum. It argues that the process was rushed, overly politicized, and designed to serve political elites rather than citizens, leading to a turnout of only 44.44%, which failed to meet the legal 50% threshold for validity.
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Document type: Policy brief
CAN WORKPLACE SECONDMENTS BUILD TRUST IN THE MINING SECTOR?
The document argues that the relationship between the South African government and the mining industry is characterized by mutual suspicion, leading to economic costs such as underinvestment and lost productivity. It proposes a long-term, co-funded secondment programme where public servants work within mining companies for 9 to 18 months to deepen mutual understanding and technical expertise. While acknowledging risks like potential corruption or brain drain to the private sector, the author asserts that rigorous design and a 5 to 10 year implementation horizon can mitigate these issues and serve as a model for the rest of Africa.
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Document type: Policy brief
Regionalism in the Southern African Development Community: Integration for better health?
The paper examines the intersection of health and regionalism within the Southern African Development Community (SADC). It finds that while SADC has established frameworks like the Protocol on Health (1999) and the Regional Indicative Strategic Development Plan (RISDP), the SADC Secretariat has a limited role, acting primarily as a facilitator for member states and international donors. Policy implementation is left to individual governments, often outsourced to NGOs and CBOs via donor funding. Case studies in Swaziland and Zambia reveal a lack of regional policy embeddedness at the national level. However, specific cross-border initiatives targeting HIV/AIDS, malaria (E8), and tuberculosis in mining have shown progress through dedicated funding and political commitment.
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Document type: Research paper
54 States and Infrastructure Financing Challenges in Africa
The document examines the infrastructure financing gap in sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting the distinct needs of low-income countries (LICs) and middle-income countries (MICs). While MDBs provide low-interest loans and technical expertise, they face competition from private financiers and bilateral investors. LICs struggle with indebtedness and declining official development assistance, often resorting to expensive private loans, whereas MICs leverage domestic markets and attract more private investment. Common challenges across the continent include a lack of technical skills for public-private partnerships, a reliance on single commodities, and overly bureaucratic MDB approval processes. The author concludes that MDBs must move away from treating Africa as a monolith and instead adopt country-specific strategies.
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Document type: Research paper
Nigeria’s Foreign Policy Before Buhari: Global Expectations Amid Domestic and Regional Challenges
This research paper examines the challenges facing Nigeria's foreign policy since its return to electoral democracy in 1999, arguing that domestic instability and leadership failures have undermined its regional and global influence.
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Document type: Research paper