CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION READINESS: LESSONS FROM THE 2015/16 EL NIÑO FOR CLIMATE READINESS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA

The 2015/16 El Niño caused the worst drought in Southern Africa in at least 35 years, leading to widespread food insecurity and agricultural losses. While regional coordination mechanisms like SADC and UN agencies provided frameworks for response, the document finds that national implementation capacity remains low across the region. Even in South Africa, the highest-capacity state, coordination challenges and resource gaps hampered effectiveness. The paper argues for a shift from reactive 'response' to proactive 'prevention' and the scaling of local, science-guided adaptation strategies to improve long-term climate readiness.

• The 2015/16 El Niño event triggered the most severe drought in Southern Africa in at least 35 years, characterized by rainfall levels below 75% of the average between October 2015 and February 2016 across most of Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Namibia, Swaziland, Lesotho, and South Africa.
• The drought caused critical food insecurity, with estimates suggesting 29 million people were food insecure as of November 2015, and the World Food Programme later estimated that 40 million rural and 9 million poor urban people would be affected.
• Agricultural impacts were severe, including a 30% below-average crop production in the 2014/15 season and a maize yield in South Africa for 2015/16 that was nearly 50% lower than the five-year average.
• Regional response efforts were coordinated through SADC, the FAO, and RIASCO, resulting in a June 2016 humanitarian appeal estimating a need for $2.4 billion to support affected populations.
• A significant gap exists in the ability of Southern African countries to translate global weather forecasts into local action, with many states described as inadequately equipped to meet the needs of affected populations.
• In South Africa, despite having the highest government capacity in the region, the drought response was hindered by contested roles, weak inter-governmental cooperation, and a failure to shift from a 'pre-emptive response' paradigm to one of 'prevention'.
• Long-term climate readiness requires a transition toward drought-tolerant livestock breeds and the adoption of conservation agriculture, as farmers using these methods showed better resilience during the 2015/16 drought.

APA

BENKENSTEIN, A. (2017). CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION READINESS: LESSONS FROM THE 2015/16 EL NIÑO FOR CLIMATE READINESS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Occasional-Paper-250.pdf

Chicago

BENKENSTEIN, ALEX. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION READINESS: LESSONS FROM THE 2015/16 EL NIÑO FOR CLIMATE READINESS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2017. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Occasional-Paper-250.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=BENKENSTEIN |first1=ALEX |title=CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION READINESS: LESSONS FROM THE 2015/16 EL NIÑO FOR CLIMATE READINESS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=January 2017 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Occasional-Paper-250.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{benkenstein2017climate, author = {BENKENSTEIN, ALEX}, title = {{CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION READINESS: LESSONS FROM THE 2015/16 EL NIÑO FOR CLIMATE READINESS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2017}, month = jan, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Occasional-Paper-250.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }