CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION READINESS: LESSONS FROM THE 2015/16 EL NIÑO FOR CLIMATE READINESS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA

This research paper by the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) examines climate adaptation readiness in Southern Africa by analyzing the region's response to the severe 2015/16 El Niño-induced drought. The author argues that while the El Niño cycle is a natural phenomenon, the resulting drought serves as a critical test of the region's institutional and policy capacity to handle severe environmental stress. The paper identifies significant gaps in national and regional response capacities, highlighting the need for a shift from reactive 'response' to proactive 'prevention' and the scaling of successful local and regional adaptation strategies.

• The 2015/16 drought in Southern Africa is considered the worst in at least 35 years, driven by an acute El Niño weather pattern. This event resulted in rainfall levels below 75% of the average from October 2015 to February 2016 across most of Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Namibia, Swaziland, Lesotho, and South Africa, and significant parts of Zambia, Malawi, Angola, and Madagascar.
• The drought had severe impacts on food security and agriculture, with nearly 29 million people reported as food insecure in November 2015. Crop production in the 2014/15 season was 30% below average, and South Africa's maize yield for 2015/16 was nearly 50% lower than its five-year average. The crisis led to significant livestock deaths (over half a million) and sharp increases in food prices, such as maize prices rising 73% in Malawi and 53% in Zimbabwe.
• Regional response efforts were coordinated through several frameworks, including the SADC Regional Vulnerability Assessment and Analysis Programme (RVAA), the FAO's Global Task Team on El Niño, and the RIASCO Response Plan. In June 2016, a regional humanitarian appeal was issued estimating a need for $2.4 billion to support affected populations, particularly in Angola, DRC, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Swaziland, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.
• The RIASCO Response Plan categorized countries by urgency of need: Malawi, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe were 'Tier 1' (most urgent); Angola, Lesotho, Madagascar, and Swaziland were 'Tier 2'; Namibia, Tanzania, and Zambia were on a 'close monitoring watch list'; and Botswana and South Africa were noted as having 'sufficient coping capacity'.
• National response capacities across Southern Africa remain generally low. Even in South Africa, which has the highest government capacity in the region, the response was hampered by coordination challenges and implementation delays. Institutions are often limited by a lack of financial and human resources and a failure to shift from a 'pre-emptive response' paradigm to one of 'prevention'.
• Long-term climate adaptation readiness requires a shift toward drought-tolerant livestock breeds and the adoption of conservation agriculture. The paper notes that farmers using conservation agriculture were better able to withstand the 2015/16 drought and highlights the Western Cape SmartAgri Programme as a model for spatially explicit, science-supported sub-national strategies.

APA

BENKENSTEIN, A. (2017). CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION READINESS: LESSONS FROM THE 2015/16 EL NIÑO FOR CLIMATE READINESS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Occasional-Paper-250.pdf

Chicago

BENKENSTEIN, ALEX. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION READINESS: LESSONS FROM THE 2015/16 EL NIÑO FOR CLIMATE READINESS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2017. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Occasional-Paper-250.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=BENKENSTEIN |first1=ALEX |title=CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION READINESS: LESSONS FROM THE 2015/16 EL NIÑO FOR CLIMATE READINESS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=January 2017 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Occasional-Paper-250.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{benkenstein2017climate, author = {BENKENSTEIN, ALEX}, title = {{CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION READINESS: LESSONS FROM THE 2015/16 EL NIÑO FOR CLIMATE READINESS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2017}, month = jan, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Occasional-Paper-250.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }