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The research addresses the 'activity gap' in international carbon markets by proposing bilateral agreements as a way to pilot sectoral carbon market approaches. The study developed a country prioritization methodology based on climate policy ambition and tested benchmarking concepts for defining credited baselines in Chile's electricity sector and South Africa's building sector.

Track 0, led by Farhana Yamin, Erik Haites, and Niklas Höhne, has developed a draft Paris Agreement designed to reduce the 90 pages of the February 2015 Geneva Negotiating Text into a manageable, ambitious, and politically balanced document. This proposal was created in response to slow progress during the June negotiating session in Bonn and precedes an informal Ministerial Meeting hosted by the French Government on 20 and 21 July in Paris.

The document describes a research project conducted by NewClimate Institute and Ecofys for the German Federal Ministry for Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB) to assess the status of CDM projects following a decline in market conditions.

The report analyzes GHG emission trajectories for Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, and the United States up to 2030. It evaluates the effectiveness of current and planned policies alongside enhanced mitigation actions aligned with national priorities to estimate the potential reduction in the emissions gap relative to a 2°C target for 2025 and 2030.

The document defines a net phase out of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as reducing anthropogenic emissions to a level equal to or smaller than anthropogenic removals. To maintain a likely chance of meeting the 2°C target, global GHG emissions must be net zero by 2100, while CO2 emissions specifically should reach net zero around 2070. If action is delayed until 2020, these deadlines accelerate to 2080 for all GHGs and 2065 for CO2. The briefing notes that technological options already exist for approximately 90% of current GHG sources, though the remaining 10% require further innovation or offsetting. It highlights the critical role of bio-energy and carbon capture and storage (CCS) for achieving these targets, noting that limiting bio-energy significantly increases mitigation costs and reduces the number of models that find the 2°C target feasible.

The research evaluates four options for carbon market mechanisms to ensure they produce net emission reductions in host countries rather than merely offsetting emissions. The study identifies the application of discounts on avoided emissions and standardisation below business as usual as the most promising approaches, suggesting these be applied differentially based on project internal rates of return to balance cost-efficiency and attractiveness.

The document examines the role of guidance tools in bridging the gap between climate adaptation, mitigation, and development. It argues that tools should be viewed as mechanisms for defining goals rather than just implementation aids, and emphasizes that tools must be complemented by analysis of actors and outcomes because they cannot solve complex problems in isolation.

The analysis evaluates the effectiveness of national mitigation policies across major emitting economies relative to their 2020 pledges. It finds that while India, China, and Russia are projected to exceed their targets, others like Canada and the USA likely require additional policies to fully deliver their pledges. The report also notes a widespread adoption of renewable energy targets and car efficiency standards among these nations.

The document discusses the introduction of pilot greenhouse gas emission trading schemes (ETS) in China, noting that the shift toward market-based allocation of emission rights signals a serious commitment to addressing climate change and a desire for parity with progressive regions in Europe and North America. However, the authors maintain that the transition toward market-driven energy and environmental policies is still in its early stages.

The research paper examines the complexity and stringency of the Clean Development Mechanism's (CDM) monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) requirements. It finds that these rules act as barriers to project success, noting that only one-third of registered projects have successfully managed initial verification to receive carbon credits. By comparing CDM-MRV provisions with those of the EU Emission Trading System (EU ETS), the paper concludes that some CDM requirements are stricter and less flexible than necessary, creating burdens that do not contribute to environmental integrity. The document suggests that improving cost-efficiency and reducing uncertainty in these rules is essential for the development of future market-based mechanisms.

A survey of United Nations member states between 2007 and 2012 reveals a significant increase in national climate mitigation efforts, with 67% of global greenhouse gas emissions covered by national legislation or strategy by 2012, up from 45% in 2007. The growth was most prominent in non-Annex I countries, specifically in Asia and Latin America, while OECD countries remained relatively stagnant. The data indicates a general preference for non-binding climate strategies over binding legislation, with China noted as a significant exception to this trend.

This executive summary evaluates over 40 studies on regional GHG reduction targets, highlighting how different effort-sharing approaches and equity principles lead to significantly different emissions allowances. It specifically examines targets for a 450 ppm CO2e stabilization level by 2030 and 2050 across various global regions and argues for more in-depth modelling to inform the 2015 international climate change agreement.

The analysis demonstrates that countries' relative contributions to global emissions vary significantly depending on the calculation method used. For example, the relative contribution of developed countries as a group ranges from 80% when excluding recent emissions and non-CO2 GHGs to 48% when including all emissions and discounting for technological progress. The study finds that excluding non-CO2 GHGs and land-use change and forestry CO2 can alter relative contributions by factors of 0.15 to 1.5. Furthermore, discounting for technological progress reduces the relative contributions of some developed countries (factor of 0.8) while increasing those of some developing countries (factor of 1.2–1.5). Deducting 'basic needs' emissions lowers contributions for countries with low per capita emissions (factor of 0.3–0.5), and including projected emissions up to 2020 increases the relative contributions of emerging economies by a factor of 1.2 to 1.5.

The document argues that the Paris Agreement's goals—limiting temperature increases to well below 2°C and pursuing a 1.5°C limit—require Germany to increase its emissions reduction efforts. To determine the implications for Germany, the analysis compared sectoral emissions reduction scenarios from existing literature and utilized global scenarios and the total CO2 budget for 1.5°C to address a lack of sufficient German-specific 1.5°C data.