Net phase out of global greenhouse gas emissions

This briefing by the NewClimate Institute examines the feasibility, timing, and technical requirements for phasing out net global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to meet the 2°C temperature target. It defines 'net phase out' as the point where anthropogenic emissions are equal to or smaller than anthropogenic removals, and discusses the role of carbon budgets, renewable energy, and specific sectoral challenges.

• To have a 66% likelihood of keeping the temperature increase below 2°C, global emissions of all greenhouse gases must reach net zero by 2100, with a range between 18% below zero and 22% above zero relative to 2010 levels. For the same target, global CO2 emissions specifically need to be net zero around 2070.
• Applying the precautionary principle for a high chance (85% likelihood) of meeting the 2°C target requires a faster timeline: all GHG emissions must be net zero between 2060 and 2080, while CO2 emissions from industry and fossil fuel combustion must be zero between 2045 and 2065.
• Delaying emission reductions until 2020 instead of 2010 accelerates the required phase-out dates. In such scenarios, global GHG emissions must be zero by 2080 and CO2 emissions by 2065, which is 20 years and 5 years earlier respectively than in least-cost 2010 scenarios.
• Technological options currently exist for approximately 90% of GHG emission sources. The remaining 10% could be addressed by the middle of the century through innovation, offsetting, or exemptions for 'essential uses'.
• Sector-specific challenges for a phase-out include a lack of technical options for some industrial production processes (6% of global emissions), the need for energy-efficient renovation of existing buildings, and the requirement for 100% biofuel use in freight road, water, and air transport.
• Bio-energy is identified as a critical component of the solution mix, as biomass is currently the only sustainable energy source for trucks and airplanes. Limiting bio-energy significantly increases total costs and reduces the number of models that find the 2°C target feasible.
• Nuclear power is not strictly necessary for a global phase-out as it can be replaced by renewables. Scenarios that exclude nuclear power are only marginally more expensive, with cost increases ranging from approximately 7% in IPCC WGIII AR5 to 25% in the AMPERE study.

APA

Hhne, N., den Elzen, M., & Admiraal, A. (2015). Net phase out of global greenhouse gas emissions. NewClimate Institute. http://www.newclimate.org/news/net-phase-out-of-global-greenhouse-gas-emissions

Chicago

Hhne, Niklas, Michel den Elzen, and Annemiek Admiraal. Net phase out of global greenhouse gas emissions. NewClimate Institute, 2015. http://www.newclimate.org/news/net-phase-out-of-global-greenhouse-gas-emissions.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Hhne |first1=Niklas |last2=den Elzen |first2=Michel |last3=Admiraal |first3=Annemiek |title=Net phase out of global greenhouse gas emissions |publisher=NewClimate Institute |date=11 February 2015 |url=http://www.newclimate.org/news/net-phase-out-of-global-greenhouse-gas-emissions |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{hhne2015net, author = {Hhne, Niklas and den Elzen, Michel and Admiraal, Annemiek}, title = {{Net phase out of global greenhouse gas emissions}}, institution = {NewClimate Institute}, year = {2015}, month = feb, url = {http://www.newclimate.org/news/net-phase-out-of-global-greenhouse-gas-emissions}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }