Net phase out of global greenhouse gas emissions

The document defines a net phase out of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as reducing anthropogenic emissions to a level equal to or smaller than anthropogenic removals. To maintain a likely chance of meeting the 2°C target, global GHG emissions must be net zero by 2100, while CO2 emissions specifically should reach net zero around 2070. If action is delayed until 2020, these deadlines accelerate to 2080 for all GHGs and 2065 for CO2. The briefing notes that technological options already exist for approximately 90% of current GHG sources, though the remaining 10% require further innovation or offsetting. It highlights the critical role of bio-energy and carbon capture and storage (CCS) for achieving these targets, noting that limiting bio-energy significantly increases mitigation costs and reduces the number of models that find the 2°C target feasible.

• To have a likely chance of meeting the 2°C target, global emissions of all greenhouse gases must be net zero by 2100, with CO2 emissions specifically needing to be net zero around 2070.
• Delaying the start of emission reductions from 2010 to 2020 accelerates the required phase-out dates: all GHGs would need to be zero by 2080 and CO2 by 2065.
• Applying a precautionary principle for a high chance (85% likelihood) of meeting 2°C requires all GHGs to be net zero between 2060 and 2080, and CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and industry to be zero between 2045 and 2065.
• Technological solutions are currently available for roughly 90% of GHG emission sources; the remaining 10% could be phased out by mid-century through innovation and offsetting.
• Bio-energy is a critical component of the solution mix, particularly for aviation and trucking; limiting its use significantly increases total costs and reduces the number of models that find the 2°C target feasible.
• Nuclear power is not strictly necessary for a global phase out, as it can be replaced by renewables with a relatively small increase in total costs, ranging from approximately 7% to 25% depending on the study.
• If the global carbon budget is overspent, net negative emissions are required to compensate, with biomass combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS) being the only currently assumed technological option for permanent CO2 removal.

APA

Hhne, N., den Elzen, M., & Admiraal, A. (2015). Net phase out of global greenhouse gas emissions. NewClimate Institute. http://www.newclimate.org/news/net-phase-out-of-global-greenhouse-gas-emissions

Chicago

Hhne, Niklas, Michel den Elzen, and Annemiek Admiraal. Net phase out of global greenhouse gas emissions. NewClimate Institute, 2015. http://www.newclimate.org/news/net-phase-out-of-global-greenhouse-gas-emissions.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Hhne |first1=Niklas |last2=den Elzen |first2=Michel |last3=Admiraal |first3=Annemiek |title=Net phase out of global greenhouse gas emissions |publisher=NewClimate Institute |date=11 February 2015 |url=http://www.newclimate.org/news/net-phase-out-of-global-greenhouse-gas-emissions |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{hhne2015net, author = {Hhne, Niklas and den Elzen, Michel and Admiraal, Annemiek}, title = {{Net phase out of global greenhouse gas emissions}}, institution = {NewClimate Institute}, year = {2015}, month = feb, url = {http://www.newclimate.org/news/net-phase-out-of-global-greenhouse-gas-emissions}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }