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The document analyzes the gap between the South African National Defence Force's (SANDF) 'Growth-core force design' and its actual budget, which is insufficient to sustain the approved force. It details a shortlist of foreign suppliers for corvettes, submarines, main battle tanks, and aircraft, while explaining the role of Industrial Participation (IP) in these deals. The author argues that the total estimated cost of these acquisitions (R25-38 billion) is unaffordable, suggesting that South Africa can likely only afford R8-9 billion in procurement, prioritizing corvettes and submarine refurbishment.

The research paper examines the failure to operationalize the SADC Organ for Politics, Defence and Security, noting a deadlock between member states over its legal and operational structure. It critiques a 1997 Review and Rationalisation Report for ignoring the security-development nexus and suggests that SADC's economic focus is incompatible with the sensitivities of defence co-operation. By comparing SADC to regional arrangements like L'ANAD in West Africa, ASEAN in Southeast Asia, and the OSCE and WEU in Europe, the author argues that Southern Africa should 'divorce' its security mechanism from SADC to create a dedicated, flexible security convention or union focused on conflict prevention and democratic stability.

This monograph examines the transition from traditional military-focused national security to 'new security thinking,' which prioritises human security and incorporates political, economic, social, and environmental dimensions. It argues that security in Africa must be reconceptualised through gender-sensitive lenses and an integrated approach to development, while addressing the practical challenges of institutionalising these concepts within regional bodies like SADC.

The report argues that there is no legitimate African cultural tradition that justifies the use of children in armed conflict, noting that traditional age-set systems typically recruited relatively mature men. It examines the limitations of existing international humanitarian and human rights laws, such as the Geneva Conventions and the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child, in preventing child recruitment. The author concludes that the establishment of a permanent International Criminal Court (ICC) is the most effective way to ensure individual criminal accountability for those who conscript or enlist children.

The report surveys peacekeeping training in nine African countries, finding a lack of coordination and doctrinal consistency. It recommends that the OAU develop a common Pan-African doctrine, establish a civilian-military coordinating capacity within its Secretariat, and create regional centres of excellence to reduce dependence on extra-continental training.

The document analyzes the shift from security-focused disarmament forums, such as the Conference on Disarmament (CD) and the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW), toward the humanitarian-led Ottawa Process. It details the progression of meetings from Ottawa in 1996 through Brussels and Oslo in 1997, culminating in a treaty for a total ban on anti-personnel landmines (APMs). The paper highlights the role of smaller states and NGOs, the specific challenges posed by US security exemptions, and the acute impact of landmines in Africa.

The document outlines a global analysis of light weapons proliferation, emphasizing the role of black markets, the persistence of government supply post-Cold War, and the link between small arms demand and internal conflict in Africa. It specifically highlights how ineffectual disarmament during peacekeeping operations has increased the availability of second-hand stockpiles.

The document analyzes the 1997 South African Regulation of Foreign Military Assistance Bill, which aims to prevent citizens and companies from providing unauthorized military services abroad. The authors argue that the Bill's vague definitions of 'armed conflict' and 'foreign military assistance' could encompass non-combatant activities such as humanitarian aid, election monitoring, and academic research. They highlight concerns regarding the extensive discretionary power granted to the Minister of Defence and the lack of transparency in the authorization process. The paper proposes specific amendments to narrow the scope of the legislation, streamline the approval process, and protect bona fide NGOs and academic institutions from excessive penalties.

The document details the transformation of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) and the South African Army following the 1994 democratic transition. It outlines a shift toward civil control, broad representivity, and a streamlined administrative structure called the Ministry of Defence (MoD), which is expected to save R300 million. The transformation involves integrating former non-statutory forces (NSF) and statutory forces, implementing affirmative action, and redefining the Army's mission from winning land battles to providing battle-ready troops for a Joint Operations Organisation. The papers highlight challenges such as budgetary restrictions, ageing equipment, and the need to combat racial prejudice within the ranks, while projecting a future role focused on territorial integrity and regional peacekeeping within the SADC and OAU frameworks.

The monograph examines the geopolitical drivers of conflict in Africa, the operational structures of the UN and OAU, and the critical necessity of linking military peacekeeping with long-term peacebuilding and development. It highlights the OAU's Mechanism for Conflict Prevention, Management and Resolution and analyzes specific missions in Mozambique, Angola, Rwanda, and Somalia to identify failures in logistics, intelligence, and coordination. The text argues that sustainable peace requires addressing root causes like poverty and poor governance through integrated strategies that involve local communities and a shift from 'winner-take-all' political cultures.

The document analyzes the transition from traditional peacekeeping to multifunctional peace support operations (MPSOs) in the post-Cold War era. It highlights the confusion between peacekeeping, peace enforcement, and enforcement, and argues that the failure of many 1990s missions stemmed from a lack of clear authority, poor civil-military coordination, and the application of 'old scripts' to complex intra-state conflicts. The authors propose a reversal of operational tasking—starting with peace enforcement to establish a secure environment before transitioning to peacekeeping—and emphasize the need for specialized training and robust information gathering.

The document examines how dwindling fresh water resources and population growth in Southern Africa increase the risk of resource-based conflict. It advocates for redefining security to include 'soft' non-military threats, such as ecological degradation and poverty, and suggests that regional co-operation through SADC and free trade can mitigate water insecurity. The text provides a detailed synoptic view of major river basins in the region, noting a paradox where the most economically developed areas (the south) have the scarcest water, while the north possesses abundant but under-utilised resources.

The document is a monograph titled 'New Partners in Peace: Towards a Southern African Peacekeeping Capacity', which explores the establishment of regional peacekeeping partnerships, the role of part-time units in UN duties, and the management of small arms proliferation in Southern Africa.

The document advocates for a flexible, part-time volunteer system within the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) to improve community security and stability. It highlights a successful 1994 pilot in Mpumalanga where black volunteers were recruited and trained to combat illegal immigration, cattle theft, and smuggling along the Mozambican border. The author argues that this model of community-based security, which also extends to nature reserves, fosters self-sufficiency, discipline, and regional stability, and should be scaled nationally to support South Africa's broader social and economic reconstruction.

The author proposes that the South African Army should move away from its current system of independent single-battalion units and instead adopt the 'true multi-battalion regiment' concept. Drawing on the 19th-century reforms of Edward Cardwell and his successors in Britain, the paper argues that linking multiple battalions to a single regimental depot and local community enhances recruiting, creates a sustainable reserve, and improves operational depth. The author notes that South Africa has historically failed to implement this system, resulting in a fragmented force. The paper suggests that the current transition of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) provides an opportunity to implement these reforms to address issues of role confusion, lack of depth in the Permanent Force, and the need for a sustainable all-volunteer part-time force.

The document advocates for the transition of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) to a voluntary service model, drawing parallels with the United States National Guard. The author contends that a part-time voluntary force of 'citizen soldiers' can act as a safeguard for democracy by preventing military monopolies on power and can serve as a national asset by providing humanitarian aid, infrastructure support, and supplementary law and order functions without the political baggage of the past.

The document outlines the three pillars of the NPT—non-proliferation, disarmament, and peaceful use of nuclear energy—and examines the specific role of African States within this framework. It highlights the importance of the Treaty of Pelindaba in establishing Africa as a nuclear-weapon-free zone and discusses the challenges facing the NPT, including non-compliance by states like North Korea and Iran. The guide provides recommendations for African countries to engage in the 2010 Review Conference to ensure access to peaceful nuclear technology while preventing military diversion.

The African Futures platform, powered by the International Futures modelling tool from the University of Denver, provides forecasts for every African country and region through 2043. It analyzes 17 thematic areas, including climate change and energy, and compares a 'Current Path' against eight thematic scenarios and a combined Agenda 2063 scenario to simulate the impact of policy interventions.

The document argues that the US is facing a potential transition from relative to absolute demographic decline as net migration trends toward negative values. This shift, combined with projected negative 'natural' population growth by 2030, is expected to accelerate the decline of US national power (measured via DIME factors) and create a geopolitical vacuum in Africa. The author suggests that China is already positioning itself to fill this void through more collaborative engagement with African partners, while the EU faces a similar risk of power decline unless it treats migration as an opportunity to offset its own aging population.

The briefing examines the Mo Ibrahim Prize, an award for African leaders who meet strict democratic and constitutional criteria. It discusses the surprise decision by the Prize Committee to not select a winner in a given year, despite several leaders having recently left office. The author explores whether the prize effectively incentivizes good governance and suggests that the lack of a winner may reflect a receding democracy or the systemic challenges leaders face. The document concludes by suggesting the prize expand its scope to include civil society and individuals to better support democratic entrenchment.