DEFENCE ACQUISITIONS - UNPACKING THE PACKAGE DEALS

The document analyzes the gap between the South African National Defence Force's (SANDF) 'Growth-core force design' and its actual budget, which is insufficient to sustain the approved force. It details a shortlist of foreign suppliers for corvettes, submarines, main battle tanks, and aircraft, while explaining the role of Industrial Participation (IP) in these deals. The author argues that the total estimated cost of these acquisitions (R25-38 billion) is unaffordable, suggesting that South Africa can likely only afford R8-9 billion in procurement, prioritizing corvettes and submarine refurbishment.

• There is a significant discrepancy between the SANDF's approved force design and its budget; the 'sharp-end' of the force would cost approximately R5.1 billion annually to sustain, but the total sustainable cost of the Defence Review design is estimated at R13 billion, far exceeding the R9.2 billion budget.
• The South African Department of Defence faces severe financial distress, with the budget having decreased by 59% in real terms since 1989, leaving only 15% of resources for main equipment renewal.
• The total estimated cost for the urgent overseas acquisition shortlist—including corvettes, submarines, fighters, tanks, and helicopters—ranges between R25 billion and R38 billion in 1998 Rand.
• Industrial Participation (IP) is a mandatory component of procurement, split into National IP (managed by the DTI to establish sustainable new industries) and Defence IP (managed by ARMSCOR to maintain existing defence industrial capabilities).
• The SA Navy is critically undersupplied, lacking patrol corvettes/frigates and facing a potential three-year strategic gap in submarine acquisition as the Daphne class becomes obsolete.
• The SA Air Force urgently needs to replace Impala trainer and ground attack aircraft, with the DASA AT2000 being the only shortlisted option that meets immediate requirements, though it is a new design without a track record.
• The author concludes that South Africa cannot afford the full 'package deals' and can likely only procure equipment worth R8-9 billion, likely focusing on corvettes, maritime helicopters, and Daphne submarine refurbishment.

APA

Cilliers, J. (1998). DEFENCE ACQUISITIONS - UNPACKING THE PACKAGE DEALS. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper29.pdf

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. DEFENCE ACQUISITIONS - UNPACKING THE PACKAGE DEALS. Institute for Security Studies, 1998. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper29.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=DEFENCE ACQUISITIONS - UNPACKING THE PACKAGE DEALS |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=March 1998 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper29.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers1998defence, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{DEFENCE ACQUISITIONS - UNPACKING THE PACKAGE DEALS}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {1998}, month = mar, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper29.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }