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China experienced a record surge in coal power commissioning and project proposals in 2025, despite a decline in actual coal power generation and the rapid growth of clean energy and storage. The report highlights a growing gap between investment decisions and system realities, noting that new capacity is dominated by large, inflexible units designed for baseload operation. This trend risks creating stranded assets and structural barriers to decarbonisation. The authors argue that the 15th Five-Year Plan must end net coal capacity growth and shift coal's role from a primary energy source to a flexible, residual support system to meet 2030 climate targets.

The global pipeline for wind and utility-scale solar reached 4.9 TW in 2025, an 11% increase, though growth has slowed compared to 2024. China dominates the landscape, with over 1.6 TW of operating capacity and 1.5 TW in its prospective pipeline. In contrast, G7 countries account for only 11% of prospective capacity additions, with their pipeline remaining largely stagnant at approximately 520 GW since 2023. Distributed solar represents about 42% of global solar capacity but remains highly concentrated in a few countries, with China leading at 489 GW. The report concludes that current pipelines are insufficient to meet the COP28 goal of tripling renewable energy by 2030, with a projected deficit of 1 TW for wind and 1.6 TW for utility-scale solar.

The United States now leads the world in gas-fired power capacity in development, with nearly 252 GW planned, driven significantly by the energy demands of AI and data centers. Globally, the pipeline for gas power grew by 31% in 2025 to 1,047 GW, though expansion is currently bottlenecked by turbine production backlogs stretching to 2030. Texas is the primary hub for this growth in the U.S., with 80.6 GW in development, nearly half of which is intended to power data centers directly.

Indonesia is experiencing an explosive surge in captive coal power, with total operational and prospective capacity reaching nearly 31 GW. This growth is heavily concentrated in nickel hubs like Central Sulawesi and North Maluku, dwarfing the expansion of the national power grid. The report highlights significant data discrepancies in official JETP mapping and warns that regulatory loopholes in PERPRES 112/2022 allow 'national strategic projects' to bypass coal moratoriums. This trajectory is projected to cause 27,000 additional air pollution-related deaths and USD 20 billion in economic burden, while creating 'sacrifice zones' that risk Indonesia's position in global green supply chains.

Indonesia is experiencing a surge in 'captive' coal-fired power plants—industrial plants not connected to the national grid—which are growing significantly faster than on-grid capacity. Driven largely by nickel smelting in Sulawesi and North Maluku, total operational and prospective captive capacity is projected to reach 31 GW, nearly tripling 2023 levels. The report highlights critical transparency gaps in government and JETP data, regulatory loopholes for National Strategic Projects (PSN), and severe long-term economic and health costs, including an estimated 27,000 additional deaths and USD 20 billion in cumulative economic burdens if these plants are not phased out.

The Global Coal Plant Tracker (GCPT) monitors coal-fired electrical generating plants of 30 MW or larger, including operating units, those proposed since 2010, and those retired since 2000. The methodology employs a two-level system consisting of a database for unit-level tracking and detailed wiki pages for project histories. Data is validated through government records, company reports, NGO tracking, and on-the-ground contacts, with updates occurring bi-annually in January and July. The tracker categorizes plant status into nine stages, ranging from 'Announced' to 'Retired', and calculates carbon dioxide emissions based on unit capacity, emission factors for coal types, heat rates for combustion technology, and global average utilization rates.

Global Energy Monitor reports that 216 GW of proposed green hydrogen projects in 11 African countries are primarily designed for export to Europe, despite a lack of established markets, funding, and infrastructure. The analysis highlights a disconnect between these massive, often hypothetical projects and the urgent need for domestic electrification, noting that 61% of prospective utility-scale wind and solar projects in Africa are earmarked for hydrogen. While small-scale distributed solar and wind projects have successfully improved energy access, the large-scale hydrogen push risks creating stranded assets and depleting local water resources without providing significant local economic value.

The briefing reveals that twenty major private equity firms are linked to nearly 60 GW of operating gas-fired power capacity globally, emitting 82 million metric tons of CO2e annually. It highlights a growing trend where private equity firms invest in both AI data centers and the fossil fuel power plants required to run them, deepening carbon lock-in. While the US holds the largest share of this capacity, private equity ownership is highly concentrated in countries like Togo and Panama.

The report finds that nominee companies, primarily branches of major global banks, mask the ownership of fossil fuel assets in Australia, obscuring approximately 18% of the national fossil fuel CO2 emissions. It highlights that these structures allow investors, including superannuation funds, to maintain stakes in high-emitting projects while avoiding public scrutiny, and notes that Australian law currently lacks regulations to require the disclosure of the actual shareholders behind these nominees.

The report analyzes the role of nominee companies—middlemen that hold shares in name only—in masking the identities of investors in Australian coal, oil, and gas projects. It finds that these structures obscure approximately 18% of Australia's national fossil fuel CO2 emissions and are predominantly operated by major global banks. The document highlights a lack of regulatory requirements for nominee disclosure in Australia, which allows investors, including some superannuation funds, to maintain stakes in high-emitting assets while avoiding public scrutiny.

The briefing argues that nuclear power is an impractical solution for near-term climate targets in Europe and Australia due to systemic delays, high costs, and a high rate of project cancellations. In Europe, utility-scale wind and solar capacity under construction or in pre-construction outweighs nuclear by fourteen to one, and solar generation surpassed nuclear in the EU for the first time in mid-2025. In Australia, the document concludes that nuclear is unlikely to replace coal by 2038 because construction timelines—estimated by CSIRO to be at least five years longer than the global average—would require groundbreaking by the end of 2025. Globally, the Global Nuclear Power Tracker indicates that 38% of all proposed nuclear capacity (566 GW) has been cancelled.

The Production Gap Report 2025 finds that governments are collectively planning more fossil fuel production than in 2023, with 2030 projected levels exceeding 1.5°C-consistent pathways by over 120%. While some countries are developing net-zero aligned scenarios, most continue to expand production and provide substantial financial support for fossil fuels, undermining Paris Agreement commitments.

The report argues that while coal's share of power generation in China has reached historic lows, institutional inertia—including capacity payments, inflexible dispatch rules, and a lack of a national retirement strategy—continues to drive high levels of new coal capacity additions. It highlights a disconnect where clean energy is growing rapidly but is often offset by the continued expansion and protection of coal assets, which are not fulfilling their intended role as flexible backups for renewables.

China is advancing a 1.3 TW pipeline of utility-scale solar and wind projects, with operating capacity reaching 1.4 TW by 2025. The country has become a global leader in offshore wind, growing its capacity to 42.7 GW by March 2025. While offshore wind is being used to decarbonize coastal industries and produce green hydrogen, the sector faces challenges from the 2021 phaseout of national subsidies and competition from ongoing coal and gas developments. The report suggests adopting hybrid auction mechanisms and centralized marine spatial planning to ensure sustainable growth.

As of May 2025, China's operational solar and wind capacity reached 1.4 billion kW, surpassing fossil fuel capacity for the first time in Q1 2025. The country leads globally in planned and under-construction projects, with over 1.3 billion kW in the pipeline. While offshore wind represents only 9% of total wind capacity, China accounts for 49% of global cumulative offshore installations as of March 2025. The document highlights the role of coastal provinces like Jiangsu and Guangdong in driving this growth and suggests transitioning from local to national-level policies and adopting international bidding models to ensure long-term stability and technical innovation.

China is advancing a 1.3 TW pipeline of utility-scale solar and wind projects, with operating capacity reaching 1.4 TW by 2025. While solar and onshore wind are expanding rapidly, particularly in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, offshore wind has emerged as a global powerhouse, accounting for 50% of global capacity. However, the offshore sector faces challenges from the 2021 phaseout of national subsidies and competition from planned coal and gas capacity in coastal provinces. The document argues for a transition from provincial development to a coordinated national policy framework incorporating hybrid auction mechanisms and robust spatial planning.

The briefing reports that while new coal mine capacity additions declined by 46% in 2024, approximately 2,270 Mtpa of new capacity remains under development globally. This pipeline is heavily concentrated in China, India, Australia, and Russia, which together account for nearly 90% of proposed developments. The document highlights that if fully realized, these projects could emit 15.7 million tonnes of methane annually, significantly hindering the achievement of the Paris Agreement and IEA Net Zero scenarios. It emphasizes the prevalence of 'greenfield' projects and the high methane intensity of underground and metallurgical coal mines.

This report by Global Energy Monitor (GEM) analyzes the potential for repurposing abandoned and soon-to-be-closed surface coal mines into solar photovoltaic (PV) power plants. It argues that these sites are ideal for solar development due to their existing proximity to grid infrastructure and the need for land reclamation, offering a pathway to align clean energy goals with local job creation and environmental restoration.

Global Energy Monitor identifies a significant opportunity to install nearly 300 GW of solar capacity on surface coal mines closed since 2020 or expected to close by 2030. These sites are highly suitable due to their proximity to existing grid infrastructure and the fact that they are already cleared of vegetation. While China leads in operational conversions, substantial potential exists in Australia, Indonesia, India, and the United States. The transition could create over 570,000 total jobs (permanent and temporary), potentially offsetting global coal mining job losses by 2035. However, challenges include complex land ownership, higher capital costs for remediation compared to greenfield sites, and the need for regulatory frameworks to ensure a just transition for local communities.

The briefing warns that 63 oil and gas fields in development could emit 2,300 kilotonnes of methane annually by 2030, a volume comparable to current fossil fuel production emissions in Europe. It highlights a critical gap where high-emitting projects in countries exporting to the EU will reach peak capacity before EU methane regulations take full effect in 2027 and 2030. The report notes significant data transparency failures among top operators and argues that continued investment in new infrastructure undermines the Global Methane Pledge and overall climate mitigation efforts.