Search Climate Insights Directory

The document outlines a pathway for the United States to reach 90 percent zero carbon electricity by 2035, asserting that plummeting technology costs make this achievable without increasing consumer electricity bills. It details the economic benefits, including $1.7 trillion in investment and 530,000 annual energy sector jobs, while avoiding 85,000 premature deaths by 2050. To prevent a scenario where zero carbon sources only reach 53 percent by 2035, the brief proposes a series of policy interventions for Congress, including a Clean Energy Standard, expanded tax credits, increased DOE capital for manufacturing, and support for coal communities through a 'Just Transition' framework and the RECLAIM Act.

The policy brief outlines a pathway for the United States to reach 90 percent zero carbon electricity by 2035, noting that this transition could support 530,000 annual energy sector jobs and reduce economy-wide emissions by 27 percent without increasing electricity bills. It warns that without policy intervention, zero carbon sources would only reach 53 percent by 2035. The authors propose a series of actions for federal entities, including the EPA requiring state decarbonization plans, the DOE expanding low-cost capital for domestic manufacturing, and the DOL creating a Just Transitions Office to support fossil fuel-dependent communities.

The policy brief outlines a pathway for the U.S. to reach 90 percent zero carbon electricity by 2035, leveraging falling costs of solar, wind, and batteries. It asserts that this transition could support $1.7 trillion in investment and 530,000 annual energy jobs without increasing customer bills. However, it warns that without policy intervention, zero carbon sources would only reach 53 percent by 2035. The authors propose specific regulatory actions for FERC and RTO/ISOs, including simplifying interconnection rules, reforming transmission cost allocation, enhancing energy price signals, and reducing reliance on capacity markets.

The brief outlines a pathway for the U.S. to reach 90 percent zero carbon electricity by 2035, leveraging falling costs of solar, wind, and batteries. It projects that this transition could support 530,000 net new energy jobs annually and reduce economy-wide emissions by 27 percent without increasing customer bills. The document provides a set of policy recommendations for state-level officials, including the adoption of Clean Energy Standards, prohibitions on new natural gas investment, and the creation of ratepayer-backed bonds to securitize uneconomic fossil fuel assets.

Energy Innovation modeled a subset of the U.S. House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis's recommendations, finding that these policies could reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 40% below 2005 levels by 2030 and 89% by 2050. The analysis projects that net carbon dioxide emissions would reach zero by 2048, avoiding 62,000 premature deaths annually by 2050 and generating approximately $8 trillion in monetized health and climate benefits (at a 3% discount rate). The modeling covers sectors including electricity, transportation, buildings, industry, oil and gas, agriculture, and natural climate solutions, assuming a transition to 100% clean electricity by 2040 and 100% zero-emission vehicle sales for light-duty vehicles by 2035.

The policy brief argues that the U.S. can achieve 90 percent zero-carbon electricity by 2035 through a federal clean energy standard and complementary reforms in tax credits, manufacturing, transmission planning, and wholesale market design. This transition would require significant scaling of solar, wind, and battery storage, while retiring the coal fleet and utilizing existing gas plants only for flexibility. The authors emphasize the need for a 'just transition' for coal-dependent communities and the modernization of utility regulation through performance-based models and all-source procurement to ensure the transition is affordable and equitable.

The report validates the California Air Resources Board's (CARB) analysis of the proposed Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) rule, which aims for approximately 60 percent of new medium- and heavy-duty trucks sold in California to be zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) by 2035. Using the California Energy Policy Simulator (EPS), the authors find that the rule would reduce nitrogen oxides (NOx) by nearly 60,000 tons and carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) by 17.6 MMT through 2040. Economically, the EPS estimates total savings of over $7 billion using CARB's battery cost forecasts, but this figure increases to more than $12 billion if a more aggressive battery cost reduction scenario (a two-year lag instead of five relative to the light-duty market) is applied. The report emphasizes that while upfront costs remain a hurdle, long-term fuel savings and Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) revenue create a significant economic opportunity.

Using the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS), this research note assesses how different GDP outlooks from Goldman Sachs, the EIA, and the IMF affect U.S. energy demand and emissions. It finds that while 2020 emissions may drop by 7% to 11% relative to 2019, these reductions are primarily driven by the transportation sector and are expected to rebound to pre-pandemic levels by 2025, resulting in no material impact on cumulative emissions through 2050.

The document argues that fully decarbonizing global industry is essential for limiting global warming to 2°C, noting that 33% of global anthropogenic emissions in 2014 came from industry. It identifies a small number of industries as the primary sources of these emissions and proposes a blueprint involving energy efficiency, carbon capture, electrification, and zero-carbon hydrogen, supported by policies that ensure a just transition and economic development for low- and middle-income countries.

The report examines the procurement processes of vertically integrated utilities in the United States, highlighting how monopsony power and financial incentives often lead to the over-procurement of capacity and a bias toward self-built, gas-fired generation. Using Xcel Colorado as a model, the authors recommend five best practices for regulators: determining technology-neutral needs through resource planning, requiring competitive all-source bidding with robust evaluation, conducting advance review of procurement terms, ensuring utility ownership does not conflict with competitive bidding, and upholding rules for fairness and transparency. The report analyzes case studies from Colorado, New Mexico, Georgia, Minnesota, Indiana, Texas, California, Virginia, and North Carolina to illustrate the effectiveness of all-source RFPs in reducing costs and increasing renewable energy deployment.

The document analyzes a proposed $0.25 per gallon federal gas tax increase, finding it would generate approximately $1.1 trillion in revenue through 2050 and reduce total fuel consumption by over 1.3 billion barrels. The tax would incentivize the adoption of electric vehicles, adding roughly 2.5 million additional EVs to U.S. roads by 2050. Additionally, the report notes that a $0.25 gas tax is equivalent to a carbon tax of $25 to $29 per ton, which exceeds the record high allowance auction prices of the California-Quebec and Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative cap-and-trade systems.

The report argues that natural gas is not a viable 'bridge' fuel but rather a risk to climate stability and shareholder value. It highlights that new gas infrastructure is increasingly incompatible with the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal and faces significant economic threats from the falling costs of renewables and storage. The document details how utilities face 'stranded asset' risks, regulatory pressure from state and city decarbonization mandates, and customer defection to community choice aggregations and corporate clean energy contracts. It suggests that 'steel for fuel' strategies—replacing fossil fuel generation with capital investment in renewables—offer a more sustainable financial model. The report concludes by urging investors to demand better disclosure on emissions and transition plans and to support policies like performance-based regulation and securitization to facilitate a just and rapid energy transition.

The report examines performance incentive mechanisms (PIMs) designed to motivate US utilities to implement strategic demand reduction (SDR)—a combination of energy efficiency and demand response that optimizes the electricity system. Analyzing seven state case studies, the authors find that while PIMs are effective, the potential for cost-effective load flexibility remains largely untapped. Most current PIMs focus on 'shape' (long-term demand adaptation) and 'shed' (peak demand reduction) services, with limited focus on 'shift' (moving demand between times of day) or 'shimmy' (real-time grid balancing). The report argues that durable, long-term incentives with periodic updates, supported by complementary policies like decoupling and time-varying rates, are most effective at aligning utility business models with public interest and decarbonization goals.

The document analyzes the success of Public Service Company of Colorado (PSCo) in achieving low-cost renewable energy bids through a regulated competitive procurement process. It argues that utilities, as single buyers (monopsonies), have incentives to disadvantage suppliers to maintain market control and financial advantages. To mitigate this, the author proposes specific regulatory measures—such as public planning scrutiny, independent bid evaluators, and the filing of draft requests for proposals—that were implemented by the Colorado Public Utilities Commission (COPUC). The brief concludes that utility ownership and competitive bidding can coexist if the process is transparent and linked to approved resource plans, ensuring consumers benefit from current market prices for wind and solar.

The report details the creation of the Hong Kong Energy Policy Simulator (EPS), an open-source system-dynamics model used to project energy-related CO2 emissions and evaluate policy combinations through 2050. It compares a 'Current Policy Scenario' with a 'Decarbonization Scenario,' demonstrating that while current trends project emissions to drop from 36 million tonnes in 2017 to 22.5 million tonnes by 2050, a targeted decarbonization strategy could reduce them to approximately 5 million tonnes. Key levers for this reduction include carbon capture and storage (CCS), electric vehicle mandates, and increased imports of renewable energy from Mainland China.

The report proposes a policy framework to reach U.S. net zero emissions by 2050, projecting an annual abatement of over 6 Gt of emissions and 120,000 lives saved from reduced pollution. It details sector-specific strategies: industrial decarbonization through electrification and hydrogen; transportation via electric and hydrogen vehicle mandates; a 100 percent carbon-free electricity standard by 2050; and an all-electric building sales mandate by 2035.

The document argues that freezing fuel economy and GHG emissions standards at 2020 levels would cost U.S. consumers up to $400 billion by 2050 and increase transportation emissions by up to 10% in 2035. It highlights the potential for a split market if California and Section 177 states maintain their authority to set stricter standards, and notes that Canada may follow California's lead or face its own economic losses of $50 billion to $67 billion if it continues to align with federal U.S. standards.

This executive summary discusses the need for wholesale electricity market reform to accommodate the transition from large, fossil-fuel-burning power plants to cheaper, smaller, carbon-free resources. It introduces two proposed pathways for market evolution: a decentralized approach emphasizing bilateral contracting and a hybrid approach combining long-term markets with short-term spot markets.

The authors propose a market design featuring a regional spot market operated by an independent Regional Transmission Organization (RTO) using locational marginal pricing and security-constrained economic dispatch. To ensure long-term investment in clean resources and manage price risk, the model relies on decentralized bilateral contracts, such as Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), rather than centralized capacity procurement. The authors contend that this approach facilitates the retirement of fossil fuel generation, promotes innovation in distributed energy resources, and minimizes political interference. They emphasize that public policy instruments, such as carbon pricing or portfolio standards, should complement this market structure by internalizing greenhouse gas externalities to accelerate the transition.

The paper argues that current wholesale electricity markets, designed for large fuel-burning plants with high production costs, are ill-equipped for a future dominated by wind, solar, and storage, which have near-zero production costs and different operational characteristics. It identifies a disconnect between federal wholesale rates and state retail rates as a barrier to demand-side flexibility. The authors propose ten principles for modern markets—including technology neutrality, grid reliability, and long-run efficiency—and outline two emerging pathways for reform: a "Robust Spot Market" approach focusing on decentralized bilateral contracting, and a "Long-Term Plus Short-Term Markets" approach utilizing a centralized forward market.