ECONOMIC, EMISSIONS IMPACT OF TRUMP ADMINISTRATION FUEL ECONOMY AND GHG EMISSIONS STANDARDS FREEZE; IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S., CALIFORNIA, “SECTION 177” STATES, CANADA

The document argues that freezing fuel economy and GHG emissions standards at 2020 levels would cost U.S. consumers up to $400 billion by 2050 and increase transportation emissions by up to 10% in 2035. It highlights the potential for a split market if California and Section 177 states maintain their authority to set stricter standards, and notes that Canada may follow California's lead or face its own economic losses of $50 billion to $67 billion if it continues to align with federal U.S. standards.

• Freezing fuel economy and GHG emissions standards for light-duty vehicles at 2020 levels (stagnating at 37 mpg instead of increasing to 51.4 mpg) would cost the U.S. economy up to $400 billion in real 2018 dollars through 2050 and increase transportation emissions by up to 10 percent in the year of maximum impact.
• In 2035, a nationwide freeze of standards would result in transportation sector emissions of 1,510 million metric tons (MMT) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), compared to 1,370 MMT under current policy. Gasoline use in 2035 would increase from 2,000 to 2,400 million barrels per year, a 20 percent increase.
• If California and the Section 177 states (representing over 35 percent of the automobile market) retain their authority to set stricter standards, the economic cost to U.S. consumers could range between $240 billion and $400 billion, depending on how automakers manage their fleets across different standards.
• The freeze would have significant impacts on Canada; if Canada continues to mirror federal U.S. standards after a revocation of California's authority, it would cost Canadian consumers $50 billion to $67 billion through 2050, increase gasoline use by 19 percent, and raise transportation GHG emissions by 11 percent (an additional 13 MMT CO2e in 2035).
• The Trump administration's own analysis predicted that the proposal to freeze standards could result in the loss of up to 60,000 jobs.

APA

Mahajan, M., & Orvis, R. (2019). ECONOMIC, EMISSIONS IMPACT OF TRUMP ADMINISTRATION FUEL ECONOMY AND GHG EMISSIONS STANDARDS FREEZE; IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S., CALIFORNIA, “SECTION 177” STATES, CANADA. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Impacts-of-Trump-Fuel-Economy-Standard-Rollback-on-US-Section-177-States-Canada-8.7.19.pdf

Chicago

Mahajan, Megan, and Robbie Orvis. ECONOMIC, EMISSIONS IMPACT OF TRUMP ADMINISTRATION FUEL ECONOMY AND GHG EMISSIONS STANDARDS FREEZE; IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S., CALIFORNIA, “SECTION 177” STATES, CANADA. Energy Innovation, 2019. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Impacts-of-Trump-Fuel-Economy-Standard-Rollback-on-US-Section-177-States-Canada-8.7.19.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Mahajan |first1=Megan |last2=Orvis |first2=Robbie |title=ECONOMIC, EMISSIONS IMPACT OF TRUMP ADMINISTRATION FUEL ECONOMY AND GHG EMISSIONS STANDARDS FREEZE; IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S., CALIFORNIA, “SECTION 177” STATES, CANADA |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=August 2019 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Impacts-of-Trump-Fuel-Economy-Standard-Rollback-on-US-Section-177-States-Canada-8.7.19.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mahajan2019economic, author = {Mahajan, Megan and Orvis, Robbie}, title = {{ECONOMIC, EMISSIONS IMPACT OF TRUMP ADMINISTRATION FUEL ECONOMY AND GHG EMISSIONS STANDARDS FREEZE; IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S., CALIFORNIA, “SECTION 177” STATES, CANADA}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2019}, month = aug, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Impacts-of-Trump-Fuel-Economy-Standard-Rollback-on-US-Section-177-States-Canada-8.7.19.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }