CLEAN TRUCKS, BIG BUCKS

The report validates the California Air Resources Board's (CARB) analysis of the proposed Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) rule, which aims for approximately 60 percent of new medium- and heavy-duty trucks sold in California to be zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) by 2035. Using the California Energy Policy Simulator (EPS), the authors find that the rule would reduce nitrogen oxides (NOx) by nearly 60,000 tons and carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) by 17.6 MMT through 2040. Economically, the EPS estimates total savings of over $7 billion using CARB's battery cost forecasts, but this figure increases to more than $12 billion if a more aggressive battery cost reduction scenario (a two-year lag instead of five relative to the light-duty market) is applied. The report emphasizes that while upfront costs remain a hurdle, long-term fuel savings and Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) revenue create a significant economic opportunity.

• The proposed Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) rule would require approximately 60 percent of new medium- and heavy-duty trucks sold in California to be zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) by 2035.
• The California EPS evaluation corroborates CARB's emissions projections, estimating a reduction of nearly 60,000 tons of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and 17.6 MMT of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) by 2040.
• Air quality improvements from the rule are projected to generate $8.9 billion in public health benefits and avoid 943 premature deaths through 2040.
• Using CARB's battery cost assumptions, the California EPS estimates total savings of over $7 billion through 2040, which is roughly $1 billion higher than CARB's $6 billion estimate due to the exclusion of financing costs in the EPS model.
• If battery costs for trucks track the light-duty market with a two-year delay rather than the five-year delay assumed by CARB, total savings through 2040 increase by approximately $5 billion to more than $12 billion.
• Despite long-term savings from fuel and LCFS revenue, electric trucks will have higher upfront purchase costs in the early years of implementation, necessitating new financing options for small businesses.

APA

BUSCH, C., FINE, J., & MYERS, A. (2020). CLEAN TRUCKS, BIG BUCKS. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Clean-Trucks-Big-Bucks_June_17_2020.pdf

Chicago

BUSCH, CHRIS, JAMES FINE, and AMANDA MYERS. CLEAN TRUCKS, BIG BUCKS. Energy Innovation, 2020. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Clean-Trucks-Big-Bucks_June_17_2020.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=BUSCH |first1=CHRIS |last2=FINE |first2=JAMES |last3=MYERS |first3=AMANDA |title=CLEAN TRUCKS, BIG BUCKS |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=June 2020 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Clean-Trucks-Big-Bucks_June_17_2020.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{busch2020clean, author = {BUSCH, CHRIS and FINE, JAMES and MYERS, AMANDA}, title = {{CLEAN TRUCKS, BIG BUCKS}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2020}, month = jun, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Clean-Trucks-Big-Bucks_June_17_2020.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }