MODELING THE CLIMATE CRISIS ACTION PLAN

Energy Innovation modeled a subset of the U.S. House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis's recommendations, finding that these policies could reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 40% below 2005 levels by 2030 and 89% by 2050. The analysis projects that net carbon dioxide emissions would reach zero by 2048, avoiding 62,000 premature deaths annually by 2050 and generating approximately $8 trillion in monetized health and climate benefits (at a 3% discount rate). The modeling covers sectors including electricity, transportation, buildings, industry, oil and gas, agriculture, and natural climate solutions, assuming a transition to 100% clean electricity by 2040 and 100% zero-emission vehicle sales for light-duty vehicles by 2035.

• The modeled policy subset could reduce annual U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by more than 1,700 million metric tonnes (MMT) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) in 2030, which is 40 percent below 2005 levels and 37 percent below 2010 levels.
• By 2050, the policies are projected to eliminate over 5,000 MMT of CO2e annually, reducing total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 89 percent below 2005 levels and 88 percent below 2010 levels, with net CO2 emissions reaching zero by 2048.
• The policy package is estimated to generate roughly $8 trillion in monetized health and climate benefits by 2050 using a 3 percent discount rate, or approximately $4 trillion using a 7 percent discount rate.
• The implementation of these policies would avoid 62,000 premature deaths annually by the year 2050.
• The modeling assumes a clean energy standard that reaches 100% clean electricity by 2040, supported by a modified model that allows for 48 GW each of wind and solar to be built annually.
• To achieve net zero emissions by 2050, the model assumes a 100% zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales standard for light-duty vehicles by 2035 and for medium- and heavy-duty trucks by 2040.
• The analysis assumes 100% of building component sales will be electric by 2035 and that states adopting net zero emissions codes for residential buildings will do so by 2030.
• Industrial decarbonization is modeled through full fuel switching from fossil fuels to electrification and hydrogen by 2050, including a shift to green hydrogen produced via electrolysis.

APA

MAHAJAN, M., ORVIS, R., & AGGARWAL, S. (2020). MODELING THE CLIMATE CRISIS ACTION PLAN. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Modeling-the-Climate-Crisis-Action-Plan_FOR-RELEASE.pdf

Chicago

MAHAJAN, MEGAN, ROBBIE ORVIS, and SONIA AGGARWAL. MODELING THE CLIMATE CRISIS ACTION PLAN. Energy Innovation, 2020. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Modeling-the-Climate-Crisis-Action-Plan_FOR-RELEASE.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=MAHAJAN |first1=MEGAN |last2=ORVIS |first2=ROBBIE |last3=AGGARWAL |first3=SONIA |title=MODELING THE CLIMATE CRISIS ACTION PLAN |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=June 2020 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Modeling-the-Climate-Crisis-Action-Plan_FOR-RELEASE.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mahajan2020modeling, author = {MAHAJAN, MEGAN and ORVIS, ROBBIE and AGGARWAL, SONIA}, title = {{MODELING THE CLIMATE CRISIS ACTION PLAN}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2020}, month = jun, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Modeling-the-Climate-Crisis-Action-Plan_FOR-RELEASE.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }