Search Climate Insights Directory

The briefing assesses the failure of the Djibouti reconciliation process and the subsequent dysfunction of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) under President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed. It critiques the international community for relying on a simplistic 'moderates versus extremists' binary and a counter-terrorist framework that ignores Somali factionalism and the complexities of groups like Shabaab. The author contends that the TFG is perceived as a tool of foreign interests and is plagued by internal corruption and leadership weaknesses. The document recommends moving away from military solutions and instead engaging the broader armed opposition and all sectors of Somali society to achieve lasting peace.

The report finds that existing climate variability already costs Kenya up to 2% of GDP annually, with future climate change potentially adding a loss of 2.6% of GDP per year by 2030. Adaptation needs are estimated at $500 million per year for 2012, rising to $1-2 billion per year by 2030. The study also identifies significant opportunities for low-carbon growth, noting that over 80% of selected energy-related emission reduction options can be realized at a net negative cost.

The seminar, co-organized by the Institute for Security Studies and the Ethiopian International Institute for Peace and Development, highlighted Africa's vulnerability to climate change and the necessity of a united African position for the Copenhagen talks. Key discussions centered on the EU's commitment to a 30% emission reduction by 2020 and a pledge of 100 billion Euros for developing countries, as well as the need for technology transfer and financial compensation for Africa. The event also detailed the institutional framework of the African Union's common position, including the role of a ten-country committee headed by Ethiopia's Prime Minister Meles Zenawi.

The report identifies climate change as a 'threat multiplier' in northern Kenya, where it exacerbates natural resource scarcity and competition, particularly over pasture and water. Through field research in the Lekurruki and Sera community conservancies, the study finds that while climate change increases the risk of violent conflict, the outcome depends heavily on the efficacy of natural resource management (NRM) and local governance. The authors argue that current Kenyan national policies—specifically the National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS) and the National Policy on Peacebuilding and Conflict Management (NPPCM)—are disconnected, with the former ignoring security implications and the latter ignoring climate change. The report recommends integrating conflict analysis into climate strategies, enacting the National Land Policy to clarify tenure, and strengthening state security to reduce reliance on privatised or auxiliary agents.

The document examines the technical and political challenges of integrating REDD into global climate policy, focusing on the scope of activities (from REDD to REDD++), financing mechanisms, measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) standards, and institutional governance. It highlights the diversity of national circumstances, particularly in Africa, and the need for a phased implementation approach that balances equity with efficiency.

The report examines the technical, financial, and institutional challenges of implementing REDD, focusing on the definitions of 'forest', funding mechanisms, and measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems.

The document analyses the systemic drivers of political violence in Kenya, including strong executive powers, impunity, and socioeconomic inequalities. It evaluates responses such as criminal prosecutions via the ICC or domestic tribunals, institutional reforms, and the establishment of a Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission to prevent future recurrence.

The document examines the 2009 transition of power from President Marc Ravalomanana to Andry Rajoelina, framing it as part of a historical pattern of popular uprisings and governance failures in Madagascar. It details the catalysts of the crisis, including accusations of bad governance and the role of the 'urban mob' in Antananarivo, while assessing the international community's response and mediation efforts led by Joachim Chissano. The author argues that sustainable stability requires addressing root causes such as extreme poverty and the lack of credible electoral mechanisms.

The document serves as a framework for a workshop hosted by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in Mombasa, Kenya, in September 2009. It argues that climate change, water scarcity, and energy deficits are critical drivers of conflict and underdevelopment in Africa. The paper highlights the Nile River Basin as a primary area of concern due to the lack of a comprehensive agreement binding all riparian states and the increasing competition for water resources among growing populations. It identifies the vulnerability of pastoralist communities to drought and the inadequacy of the African Union's response to climate change. The workshop aims to develop strategies for the joint management of water resources, assess the 'Helsinki Rules' for international water utilization, and explore the role of international actors and civil society in preventing water-related conflicts.

The speech highlights the devastating effects of climate change on water resources in Kenya and Africa, noting increased droughts and water rationing. It discusses the drivers of water scarcity, including population growth and pollution, and addresses the resulting conflicts between pastoralists and agrarian communities. Regarding transboundary waters, the speaker emphasizes the need for a fair framework in the Nile Basin, criticizing colonial-era agreements and calling for cooperation between upstream and downstream states to ensure sustainable development.

The document examines the crisis facing higher education in Africa, characterized by overcrowding and resource scarcity, and argues that governance education is neglected in favor of technical training. It presents findings from a 2008-2009 study of eight universities, highlighting severe constraints in staffing, funding, and infrastructure. The author proposes regional cooperation and the use of ICT to overcome these barriers and better align university output with the goals of the African Union and the African Peer Review Mechanism.

The document examines the governance of Angola's artisanal fisheries, where approximately two-thirds of the country's fishers operate. It argues that co-operatives can bridge the gap between the state and local users, facilitating a transition from an informal to a formal sector. The author highlights the challenges posed by a legacy of top-down, socialist co-operative models and recommends a shift toward voluntary, 'bottom-up' enterprises. The paper also discusses the importance of fish for food security in Angola and the role of the Institute for the Development of Artisanal Fisheries and Aquaculture (IPA) in implementing development plans.

The document analyzes African perspectives on the proposed Arms Trade Treaty (ATT), which aims to establish universal standards for the legal trade of conventional weapons. While there is broad support across the continent, the paper identifies specific concerns regarding national sovereignty, the potential for the treaty to be used as a political tool, and the financial burden of implementation. It details the positions of South Africa, Kenya, Egypt, Algeria, and Nigeria, noting a tension between the desire for global standards and the protection of national arms industries and security rights. The author recommends that African states develop a more unified common position through the African Union to better influence the international process.

The document examines how human rights are integrated into African international relations, noting a gap between formal commitments to regional and international treaties and the practical application of these norms. It highlights how national interests, historical colonial ties, and the emergence of non-conditional economic partnerships—particularly with China—often supersede human rights considerations. The author analyzes specific cases, such as the African Union's response to the ICC warrant for Omar Al-Bashir and South Africa's diplomatic balancing act, to argue that human rights often remain a "variable concern" rather than a central pillar of foreign policy.

The report analyzes Ghana's 2008 elections as a landmark in its democratic transition, attributing the peaceful power alternation to the commitment of political actors, an independent electoral commission, and active civil society. While highlighting the shift toward a two-party system dominated by the NPP and NDC, the author notes persistent challenges including ethnic-regional voting patterns, the under-representation of women, and the potential risks associated with the discovery of oil.

The document evaluates the Internet Governance Forum (IGF) as a pioneering multi-stakeholder mechanism for global Internet governance. It argues that the IGF should be maintained because it defuses tensions over the U.S. oversight of ICANN and provides an open space for developing countries to address issues like access, security, and open standards. The report suggests that the 'Internet model'—characterized by shared ownership and bottom-up collaboration—could provide valuable lessons for the governance of other critical technologies, including those related to climate change and geo-engineering. It concludes by recommending that a second mandate for the IGF should focus on better integrating developing country concerns and mainstreaming sustainable development goals.

The document evaluates the Grand Coalition Government (GCG) in Kenya, established after the 2007 post-election violence. While it notes institutional progress in justice and constitutional reform, it highlights failures in addressing root causes of conflict, such as land disputes and economic marginalization, and notes a sharp decline in economic growth from 7% to 1.7%.

The author critiques the APRM reports for Algeria, Benin, Ghana, Kenya, Rwanda, and South Africa, noting that recommendations frequently lack actionable substance or rely on ambiguous terms like "strengthen." To improve, the author suggests leveraging the 'peer review' process for collective problem-solving, consulting academic institutions and NGOs, or admitting when further research is required.

The 3rd GIBSA Partners' Meeting, held in April 2009 in Tshwane, South Africa, brought together representatives from Germany, India, Brazil, and South Africa to discuss the emerging global political and economic order. Key discussions focused on the transition of power from West to East, the role of 'smart power' in international relations, and the challenges facing African states in exerting influence globally. The meeting also analyzed the rise of 'club governance' (such as the G20 and Heiligendamm Process) as a flexible alternative to traditional multilateral institutions like the IMF and World Bank, while emphasizing that Africa remains more of a 'field of action' than a proactive actor in international relations.

The document examines the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) as a voluntary self-monitoring tool for promoting good governance in Africa. It traces the APRM's genealogy from the New Partnership for Africa's Development (Nepad) and the African Union (AU), analyzing the institutional tensions and evolving coordination between these bodies. The author highlights the APRM's success in widening political space and identifying governance gaps in member states, while noting limitations in its ability to enforce solutions or ensure peer learning. The paper concludes that the mechanism's future depends on the commitment of African leadership and its ability to demonstrate incremental progress to maintain international support.