Climate change and conflict

This 2009 report by IISD, CDC, and Saferworld analyzes how climate change acts as a 'threat multiplier' in northern Kenya, exacerbating resource-based conflicts among pastoralist communities. It highlights a critical gap between Kenya's climate response and its peacebuilding policies, recommending a conflict-sensitive approach to climate adaptation, the enactment of the National Land Policy, and the strengthening of state security to reduce reliance on privatized security agents.

• Climate change is identified as a 'threat multiplier' in northern Kenya, meaning it does not directly cause conflict but compounds other drivers by altering the quantity, quality, and distribution of natural resources like land and water, thereby intensifying competition between groups.
• There is a significant policy disconnect in the Kenyan Government's approach to climate and security: the National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS) ignores conflict and security implications, while the National Policy on Peacebuilding and Conflict Management (NPPCM) fails to mention the impact of climate change on natural resource competition.
• The proliferation of small arms and light weapons (SALW), particularly among pastoralist communities, is a primary factor fueling violent conflict in northern Kenya.
• State security provision in northern Kenya is described as ineffective and unaccountable, which creates a security vacuum. This leads communities to rely on auxiliary or privatised security agents, such as community scouts or Kenya Police Reserves (KPRs), who are sometimes perceived as non-neutral or complicit in cattle-rustling.
• The report recommends the urgent enactment of the draft National Land Policy to improve natural resource management through changes to tenure laws and benefit-sharing schemes, though it warns that the demarcation of Community Land could itself trigger violent conflict if not implemented in a conflict-sensitive manner.
• Pastoralist conflicts in northern Kenya are historically rooted in competition over diminishing resources, exacerbated by the privatisation of land, political marginalisation of the region, and the increasing unpredictability of droughts and floods.
• The study suggests that the threat of increased conflict due to climate change cannot be mitigated solely through local natural resource management; the scale of climate change threatens to overwhelm local coping capacities, necessitating a coordinated national response.
• The report advocates for the integration of traditional conflict management mechanisms and customary governance institutions into the national peacebuilding framework to provide cultural relevance and local ownership of interventions.

APA

International Institute for Sustainable Development (2009). Climate change and conflict. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/climate_change_conflict_kenya.pdf

Chicago

International Institute for Sustainable Development. Climate change and conflict. 2009. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/climate_change_conflict_kenya.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=International Institute for Sustainable Development |title=Climate change and conflict |date=November 2009 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/climate_change_conflict_kenya.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{internationalinstituteforsustainabledevelopment2009climate, author = {{International Institute for Sustainable Development}}, title = {{Climate change and conflict}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2009}, month = nov, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/climate_change_conflict_kenya.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }