Climate change and conflict

The report identifies climate change as a 'threat multiplier' in northern Kenya, where it exacerbates natural resource scarcity and competition, particularly over pasture and water. Through field research in the Lekurruki and Sera community conservancies, the study finds that while climate change increases the risk of violent conflict, the outcome depends heavily on the efficacy of natural resource management (NRM) and local governance. The authors argue that current Kenyan national policies—specifically the National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS) and the National Policy on Peacebuilding and Conflict Management (NPPCM)—are disconnected, with the former ignoring security implications and the latter ignoring climate change. The report recommends integrating conflict analysis into climate strategies, enacting the National Land Policy to clarify tenure, and strengthening state security to reduce reliance on privatised or auxiliary agents.

• Climate change acts as a 'threat multiplier' in northern Kenya, compounding other drivers of conflict by altering the distribution, quantity, and quality of natural resources like land and water.
• There is a significant policy disconnect in Kenya: the National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS) fails to mention conflict or security, while the National Policy on Peacebuilding and Conflict Management (NPPCM) makes no reference to the impact of climate change.
• Natural resource scarcity does not automatically lead to violent conflict; the determining factor is how resources are managed during periods of scarcity.
• The proliferation of small arms and light weapons (SALW) among pastoralist communities has intensified the scale and lethality of resource-based conflicts, transforming low-intensity raids into large-scale violent clashes.
• Community conservancies, such as Lekurruki and Sera, have successfully reduced unmanaged competition over resources by establishing legal entities, transparent decision-making, and community-led security scouts.
• The formal establishment of community conservancies can inadvertently trigger conflict by being perceived as 'land grabs' that exclude non-members or entrench ethnic divisions.
• Ineffective state security provision in northern Kenya forces communities to rely on auxiliary or privatised security agents, which can lead to further instability if these agents are not neutral or accountable.
• Climate projections for Kenya's east and north ASAL regions indicate an overall decrease in precipitation and an increase in extreme weather events, which will likely shorten recovery times for pastoralists to rebuild livestock stocks.

APA

International Institute for Sustainable Development (2009). Climate change and conflict. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/climate_change_conflict_kenya.pdf

Chicago

International Institute for Sustainable Development. Climate change and conflict. 2009. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/climate_change_conflict_kenya.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=International Institute for Sustainable Development |title=Climate change and conflict |date=November 2009 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/climate_change_conflict_kenya.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{internationalinstituteforsustainabledevelopment2009climate, author = {{International Institute for Sustainable Development}}, title = {{Climate change and conflict}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2009}, month = nov, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/climate_change_conflict_kenya.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }