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ISS WORKSHOP REPORT
The report details a three-day workshop in Kinshasa involving the DRC Ministry of Defence and a SADC delegation. The proceedings focused on the challenges of military integration in the DRC, including the need for a national defence policy, the role of political will, and the management of personnel. SADC representatives from South Africa, Namibia, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique shared their specific post-conflict reintegration experiences. The document concludes that while regional experiences provide reference points, the DRC faces significant hurdles such as parallel command structures, lack of a formal defence policy, and interference from politicians.
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Document type: Report
Pointers on Zimbabwe
The document outlines observations from a conference regarding the 2005 Zimbabwean parliamentary elections and proposes a roadmap for political normalization. Key issues identified include the 'democratic deficit' caused by repressive legislation like POSA and AIPPA, the lack of standardized training for electoral observers, and the use of food as a political tool. The briefing argues for an all-inclusive constitutional debate, the repeal of restrictive laws, and a coordinated regional intervention led by SADC and the African Union to pressure the Zimbabwean government toward democratic reform and national reconciliation.
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Document type: Briefing
Zim elections expose Africa to ridicule
The author critiques the South African government and SADC for endorsing Zimbabwe's March 31, 2005, elections as credible despite evidence of vote-rigging and intimidation reported by the MDC, the US, and the Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN). The text contends that this 'quiet diplomacy' creates a dangerous precedent for other African nations and contradicts the governance goals of the AU and NEPAD. While the AU mission eventually called for an investigation into discrepancies, the document highlights ongoing human rights violations and a severe food crisis in Zimbabwe.
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Document type: Research paper
Zimbabwe’s 2005 Elections: Overture or finale?
The document argues that the 2005 Zimbabwean elections are unlikely to be free and fair due to restrictive legislation and political violence, making the internal power struggles within the ruling ZANU-PF more significant for the country's future than the poll results. It details a 'war of attrition' between the Zezuru-Mujuru faction and the Karanga-Mnangagwa faction, the latter of which was marginalized following a failed 'palace coup' known as the Tsholotsho Declaration. The briefing also critiques South Africa's 'quiet diplomacy,' suggesting a contradiction between Pretoria's pro-democracy rhetoric and its perceived support for ZANU-PF. Finally, it outlines four scenarios for the election outcome, ranging from a ZANU-PF landslide to a constitutional crisis triggered by an MDC victory.
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Document type: Briefing
Rejoignant le Continent: Madagascar et la SADC
The document evaluates the SADC's integration efforts, highlighting the strategic entry of Madagascar under President Marc Ravalomanana and the exits of Seychelles and Tanzania (from Comesa). It analyzes how external partners like the EU, US, and China both facilitate and hinder regional cohesion. Finally, it reviews the ratification status of 34 legal instruments, arguing for a 'single undertaking' approach to ensure uniform implementation across member states.
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Document type: Report
ZIMBABWE: A Pre-election Overview and Recovery Scenarios
The document describes a Zimbabwean economy in collapse, characterized by a GDP drop of over 30% in three years, hyperinflation, and a breakdown of the agricultural sector due to land seizures. It details a political environment of repression and a skewed electoral process ahead of the 2005 polls. The report argues that recovery requires a return to the rule of law, macroeconomic restructuring, and a comprehensive resolution of the land issue, while noting that the removal of President Robert Mugabe is a necessary but not sufficient condition for stability.
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Document type: Report
Southern Africa Assessment: Food Security and HIV/AIDS
The document examines the 'entangling crisis' of food insecurity and HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa. It argues that while environmental triggers like drought cause immediate shortages, the severity of these crises is rooted in structural issues, including the removal of agricultural subsidies, the impact of EU agricultural dumping, and the depletion of agricultural labour due to the HIV/AIDS pandemic. The report calls for a shift from reactive food aid to integrated long-term agricultural investment and improved governance to build community resilience.
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Document type: Report
AFRICA WATCH ZIMBABWE
The document analyzes the aftermath of Zimbabwe's 2005 parliamentary elections, noting that while the MDC secured 41 seats, ZANU-PF maintained a two-thirds majority capable of passing constitutional reforms. It highlights a deteriorating economic situation characterized by a severely unbalanced budget, fuel shortages, and agricultural turmoil due to controversial reforms and drought. The report also discusses internal ZANU-PF power dynamics, specifically the influence of Solomon Mujuru and the precarious position of President Mugabe's leadership heading toward 2008.
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Document type: Report
Evolutions & Revolutions
The report examines the evolution of military institutions in Southern Africa, focusing on the transition from colonial forces to national armies. It details the impact of liberation struggles, civil wars, and regional destabilization on the structure, policy, and professionalism of militaries in countries including Angola, South Africa, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe. Key themes include the integration of former combatants, the shift toward democratic civilian control, and the role of regional bodies like SADC in peacekeeping and security cooperation.
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Document type: Report
Africa’s First Welfare State
The report examines the business environment in Botswana from the perspective of South African investors, highlighting the stability and investor-friendly nature of the country, the role of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), and challenges related to economic diversification and local employment policies.
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Document type: Executive summary
Crown Princess Faces Big Challenges Succession in Zimbabwe
The document analyzes the political landscape of Zimbabwe, arguing that Zanu (PF)'s legitimacy remains rooted in liberation credentials despite economic failure and leadership inconsistencies. It highlights the internal power struggles surrounding President Robert Mugabe's succession, noting the failed bid of Emmerson Mnangagwa and the significant election of Joyce Mujuru as vice-president. The author identifies Mujuru's rise as a victory for gender equity in a patriarchal society where women, despite being the largest proportion of peasant farmers, are culturally barred from owning land title deeds.
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Document type: Research paper
Good intentions are not enough for African development
The author argues that the Africa Commission must avoid the pitfalls of previous economic liberalisation efforts, which have often yielded disappointing results. To be effective, the commission should help African nations move beyond the vague goal of 'creating an enabling environment' and instead develop specific, country-by-country strategies based on actual investor needs and comparative advantages. The text highlights a critical lack of focus in regional bodies like SADC and Comesa, which maintain overly long lists of priorities, and notes a significant funding gap in the Nepad short-term action plan that must be filled by the private sector through public-private partnerships.
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Document type: Research paper
Parliament: Zim Opposition's Last Hope
The document examines whether the Zimbabwean parliament remains a viable tool for the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) or if its participation merely legitimises a repressive state. While noting progressive institutional reforms and the parliament's role as a protected space for debate, the author highlights severe obstacles, including a constitution that favours the executive and draconian laws like the Public Order and Security Act (Posa). The text argues that despite the MDC's inability to block repressive legislation, parliament remains a rare democratic site of struggle that should be expanded rather than abandoned.
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Document type: Research paper
Political dissent and terrorism in Southern Africa
The document analyzes the progression of political dissent from legitimate protest to violent terrorism, focusing on how authoritarian governance in Southern Africa fuels this escalation. It examines specific case studies in Zimbabwe, Swaziland, South Africa, Mauritius, and Tanzania to illustrate how the closure of legal political channels leads groups to adopt covert and violent strategies. The author argues that the state's reaction to dissent is often the deciding factor in whether a movement remains peaceful or turns to terrorism.
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Document type: Research paper
The Devil in the Demographics: The Effect of Youth Bulges on Domestic Armed Conflict, 1950-2000
The study finds that youth bulges significantly increase the risk of domestic armed conflict, particularly when combined with economic stagnation. Using a dataset of sovereign states and dependent areas from 1950 to 2000, the author argues that the risk is heightened in regions like Sub-Saharan Africa and the Arab world where youth bulges coexist with poor economic performance and unstable political regimes. The research rejects Samuel P. Huntington's theory of a specific 'critical level' threshold for conflict and suggests that previous World Bank studies failed to find these effects due to flawed measurement methods. Additionally, the author identifies migration as a critical 'safety valve' that can mitigate youth discontent.
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Document type: Research paper
Hawks, Doves or Penguins? A Critical Review of the SADC Military Intervention in the DRC
The document analyzes the roles of SADC member states in the DRC conflict, categorizing them as 'hawks' (military interveners), 'doves' (diplomatic proponents), or 'penguins' (avoidant/complex positions). It argues that while the intervention by Angola, Namibia, and Zimbabwe caused economic strain and international criticism, it was grounded in SADC principles of sovereignty and solidarity. The paper contends that perceived rifts between these 'allies' and South Africa were largely mythical, as evidenced by subsequent regional security protocols and the SADC Mutual Defence Pact.
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Document type: Research paper
Hawks, Doves or Penguins?
The document analyzes the roles of SADC member states in the DRC conflict, categorizing them as 'hawks' (interveners), 'doves' (peace-seekers), or 'penguins' (avoidant). It argues that while the military intervention by Angola, Namibia, and Zimbabwe created perceived rifts with states like South Africa, these divisions were largely mythical. The paper concludes that SADC has demonstrated maturity and cohesion through the development of a Mutual Defence Pact and a shared commitment to regional security, positioning the organization as a critical partner for the United Nations in stabilizing the DRC.
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Document type: Research paper
Understanding and Regulating Arms Brokering in Southern Africa
The document is a table of contents and summary page for a workshop report held in Johannesburg from 15-17 March 2004, focusing on arms brokering, legislation, and regional cooperation in Southern Africa.
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Document type: Report
Why Zimbabwe has not crumbled
The paper argues that Robert Mugabe's regime persists due to a combination of political passivity among the public, limited external support for democratic forces, and the creation of a feudalistic economic system that rewards a small political elite. While the general population suffers from hyperinflation and food shortages, the elite profit through land redistribution, currency manipulation, and state-sponsored fraud.
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Document type: Research paper
Seeing the Light: Adapting to climate change with decentralized renewable energy in developing countries
The document explores the role of decentralized renewable energy (DRE) in enhancing adaptive capacity to climate change in developing countries. It posits that DRE provides a 'win-win' by addressing adaptation needs while reducing greenhouse gas emissions, particularly when integrated with the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The text details how DRE supports the Millennium Development Goals by improving health, education, and gender equality, and reducing poverty and environmental degradation. It references case studies from Argentina, Bangladesh, Brazil, Senegal, and Zimbabwe to illustrate these benefits.
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Document type: Report