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WRI collaborated with stakeholders in Shanxi, China, to implement a "coal-to-tourism" business model that created over 1,000 jobs for displaced coal workers and increased local household incomes by 10%-20%. The initiative led Shanxi to become the first Chinese province to formally integrate "just transition" principles into its government workplan, a model now being adopted by Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang provinces.

China is repositioning its coal fleet to provide system flexibility, with the entire existing fleet on track to be retrofitted by 2027. While technical capacity is increasing, the report argues that full flexibility is constrained by power market design and dispatch practices. It emphasizes that as coal retrofit potential plateaus, the rapid scale-up of clean flexibility, particularly battery energy storage, is essential to avoid locking in emissions beyond 2030 and to maintain grid stability as renewables become dominant.

China has rapidly expanded its flexible coal power capacity, exceeding its 2025 national target and positioning itself to meet a 2027 goal of retrofitting 500-700 GW. By the end of 2024, total flexible coal capacity exceeded 600 GW, with significant progress in provinces like Guangxi, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Xinjiang. While coal utilisation is generally declining and showing greater seasonal variability due to renewable growth and demand peaks, the document notes that the full potential of this technical flexibility is not yet reflected in system operations due to market design and institutional arrangements. The transition is supported by a capacity pricing mechanism and diversified revenue models, though flexible operation increases costs through higher maintenance, reduced fuel efficiency at low loads, and accelerated depreciation.

The report identifies China as the world's largest methane emitter and explores how sustainable finance can bridge the investment gap for abatement. It highlights the 2025 NDC update as a critical window for action and recommends the integration of quantitative methane targets, expanded green taxonomies, and the inclusion of methane in the national emissions trading system to mobilise the estimated USD 7.7 billion in annual investment needed.

This report by Global Energy Monitor (GEM) analyzes the potential for repurposing abandoned and soon-to-be-closed surface coal mines into solar photovoltaic (PV) power plants. It argues that these sites are ideal for solar development due to their existing proximity to grid infrastructure and the need for land reclamation, offering a pathway to align clean energy goals with local job creation and environmental restoration.

Global Energy Monitor identifies a significant opportunity to install nearly 300 GW of solar capacity on surface coal mines closed since 2020 or expected to close by 2030. These sites are highly suitable due to their proximity to existing grid infrastructure and the fact that they are already cleared of vegetation. While China leads in operational conversions, substantial potential exists in Australia, Indonesia, India, and the United States. The transition could create over 570,000 total jobs (permanent and temporary), potentially offsetting global coal mining job losses by 2035. However, challenges include complex land ownership, higher capital costs for remediation compared to greenfield sites, and the need for regulatory frameworks to ensure a just transition for local communities.

In 2024, China approved 66.7 GW of new coal power and saw 94.5 GW begin construction, the highest level since 2015, despite adding a record 356 GW of wind and solar capacity. This 'energy addition' strategy is driven by long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) that guarantee coal generation and the influence of coal mining companies, who financed over 75% of new approvals. These factors lead to the curtailment of renewables and a shift away from using coal plants as flexible regulating capacity. The report concludes that China's coal expansion contrasts sharply with global trends, as China accounted for 93% of global coal construction starts in 2024.

China is the world's largest coal producer and importer, with a significant shift toward large-scale and mega-scale mining operations. Despite climate goals, China is developing approximately 1,280 Mtpa of new coal capacity, nearly half of the global proposed pipeline. This expansion, concentrated in provinces like Inner Mongolia and Shanxi, drives massive methane emissions, with China's operating mines alone accounting for roughly 70% of global coal mine methane emissions from similar-sized operations. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) dominate the sector, controlling 40% of production capacity and contributing nearly 40% of the nation's coal mine methane emissions.

China is leading global renewable energy deployment with 339 GW of utility-scale solar and wind power under construction, nearly double the capacity of the rest of the world combined. By the first quarter of 2024, wind and solar accounted for 37% of China's total power capacity. While the country is on track to potentially reach 1,200 GW of installed capacity by the end of 2024, significant obstacles remain, including a reliance on coal to mitigate intermittency, insufficient Ultra High Voltage (UHV) transmission lines, and rising curtailment rates in several provinces.

Global Energy Monitor identifies nearly 2.7 million coal miners worldwide, with the majority in Asia. The report warns that 414,200 jobs could be lost by 2035 and 990,200 by 2050 due to the industry's own 'life of mine' closure schedules, regardless of climate policies. It highlights that current climate pledges cover only 6% of the thermal coal workforce, leaving millions vulnerable. The report emphasizes the need for just transition mechanisms, such as the Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs), and suggests bridging employment through mine reclamation and renewable energy repurposing.

China has established global leadership in renewable energy, with utility-scale solar capacity of 228 GW and wind capacity exceeding 310 GW as of Q1 2023. The country is pursuing an ambitious target of over 1,200 GW of combined wind and solar capacity by 2030, supported by the '14th Five-Year Plan' and the development of massive 'wind-solar bases' in desert regions. While integrating these sources through ultra-high voltage (UHV) transmission and new energy storage technologies, China continues to utilize coal-fired power as a 'bottom-line' guarantee for grid stability, which may hinder the complete phase-out of fossil fuels.

China has established itself as the global leader in renewable energy, with operating large utility-scale solar capacity of 228 GW and combined wind capacity exceeding 310 GW. The country is pursuing a strategy of 'mega wind and solar bases' in its northern and northwestern deserts to meet a central government target of 1,200 GW of cumulative capacity by 2030, a goal it is likely to surpass by 2025. This expansion is driven by a combination of historical feed-in tariffs, favorable financing from state-owned banks, and strict provincial targets. However, the report notes that new renewables bases are often bundled with new coal-fired power plants to manage intermittency, potentially hindering the phase-out of fossil fuels. To address volatility, China is implementing 'source-grid-load-storage' integration, expanding new energy storage, and developing green hydrogen production.

The report examines why China's coal power capacity continued to grow between 2016 and 2020 despite decarbonization goals, citing both surface-level needs (supply security, heating) and deep-seated drivers (local government enthusiasm, rigid dispatch mechanisms). It argues that coal power must transition into a 'supportive role' providing flexibility and backup for wind and solar. To achieve this, the authors suggest four policy entry points: breaking path dependency by curbing local government enthusiasm, reforming electricity markets to incentivize flexibility, coordinating coal and electricity policies to ensure supply security, and adopting a reflexive, inclusive governance model.

Global Energy Monitor (GEM) finds that operating coal mines emit 52.3 million tonnes of methane per year, exceeding IEA estimates for oil and gas. The analysis identifies China, specifically Shanxi province, as the primary source of these emissions. GEM warns that proposed mine projects could add another 11.3 million tonnes annually, effectively locking in emissions equivalent to the coal-based CO2 emissions of the United States. To meet Net Zero 2030 targets, the report argues for a faster coal phase-out and the cancellation of new projects, as current mitigation measures are often insufficient or circumvented.

In 2021, China's coal-fired power construction reached its highest level since 2016, with 33 GW of new capacity starting construction. Despite carbon neutrality targets, investment in long-process steel remains high, with China accounting for 85% of global new long-process capacity. The report warns that these investments lock in coal dependency and risk creating stranded assets valued at hundreds of billions of dollars. While there is growth in electric arc furnace (EAF) steel and renewable energy targets, the scale of new fossil-fuel infrastructure continues to outpace the transition needed to meet Paris Agreement goals.

The document reports a surge in China's coal power construction and coal-based steelmaking investments in 2021, contradicting the country's carbon neutrality goals. It highlights that 33 GW of new coal power plants started construction in 2021 and 74 million tonnes of coal-based steelmaking capacity were approved. The report warns that these investments risk creating billions of dollars in stranded assets and lock the sectors into coal dependency, while noting a simultaneous but insufficient scale-up of clean energy.

Despite pledges for carbon neutrality, China's power and steel sectors continued to announce coal-based projects in early 2021. While CO2 emissions growth showed signs of cooling in the second quarter of 2021 due to government controls on financial excesses and industrial output, the volume of new coal projects remains high, risking the creation of stranded assets and undermining 2030 emission reduction targets.

Despite a slowdown in emission growth in Q2 2021, China's power and steel sectors continued to announce significant new coal-based capacity in the first half of the year. The report highlights a contradiction between economic growth driven by construction and decarbonization goals, noting that zero-emission power only met 30% of electricity demand growth between H1 2019 and H1 2021. While government measures to control fiscal overspending and industrial output led to a slowdown in CO2 emission growth in the second quarter, the continued announcement of coal-based projects risks creating stranded assets and hindering the transition to low-carbon technologies.

Methane is a potent warming agent and health hazard that leaks frequently from oil and gas systems, coal mines, landfills, and livestock. RMI advocates for the use of remote sensing and the MiQ voluntary standard to create a market for low-methane gas and eventually establish mandatory standards to achieve a 1.5-degree future.

The report finds that 2,277 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of new coal mining capacity is under development globally, with 614 mtpa already under construction. This expansion is heavily concentrated in China, Australia, India, and Russia, which together represent 77% of global development. The authors argue that this trajectory is incompatible with the Paris Agreement, as coal production would need to decline 11% annually through 2030 to limit warming to 1.5°C. If all proposed capacity is realized, 2030 production would be over four times the 1.5°C-compliant pathway. The report also highlights a potential $91 billion USD in stranded assets and significant greenhouse gas emissions, estimated between 5,000 and 5,800 Mt of CO2-equivalent annually from these projects.