Deep Trouble

The report finds that 2,277 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of new coal mining capacity is under development globally, with 614 mtpa already under construction. This expansion is heavily concentrated in China, Australia, India, and Russia, which together represent 77% of global development. The authors argue that this trajectory is incompatible with the Paris Agreement, as coal production would need to decline 11% annually through 2030 to limit warming to 1.5°C. If all proposed capacity is realized, 2030 production would be over four times the 1.5°C-compliant pathway. The report also highlights a potential $91 billion USD in stranded assets and significant greenhouse gas emissions, estimated between 5,000 and 5,800 Mt of CO2-equivalent annually from these projects.

• There are 432 new coal mine developments and expansion projects currently announced or under development worldwide, totaling 2,277 mtpa of new capacity, of which 614 mtpa is under construction and 1,663 mtpa is in planning.
• Proposed coal mine capacity is highly concentrated, with China, Australia, India, and Russia representing 77% (1,750 mtpa) of global development.
• The development of these new mines contradicts the IEA's net-zero roadmap, which requires no new coal mines or extensions after 2021. If all proposed capacity is realized, 2030 coal production will exceed the 1.5°C-compliant pathway by over four times.
• The proposed coal mine projects face a total stranded asset risk of up to $91 billion USD, with $27 billion USD already fixed in projects currently under construction.
• Annual greenhouse gas emissions from the proposed mines, including combustion and methane leakage, are estimated to be between 5,000 and 5,800 Mt of CO2-equivalent, a level comparable to the annual CO2 emissions of the United States.
• Two-thirds of the proposals (1,471 mtpa) are 'greenfield' developments, indicating an industry preference for breaking ground on new mines that lock in long-term production and emissions.
• Thermal coal remains the dominant type of proposed capacity at 71%, although metallurgical coal for steel-making accounts for 70% of proposed capacity in North America.
• In China, proposed capacity is heavily concentrated in four provinces and regions—Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Shaanxi, and Shanxi—which account for approximately 24% (544 mtpa) of the world's proposed capacity.
• The majority of proposed coal mines in India and China are sponsored by state-owned enterprises, meaning taxpayer funds are subsidizing these projects.

APA

Tate, R. D., Shearer, C., & Matikinca, A. (2021). Deep Trouble. Global Energy Monitor. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/CoalMines_2021_r4_23.pdf

Chicago

Tate, Ryan Driskell, Christine Shearer, and Andiswa Matikinca. Deep Trouble. Global Energy Monitor, 2021. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/CoalMines_2021_r4_23.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Tate |first1=Ryan Driskell |last2=Shearer |first2=Christine |last3=Matikinca |first3=Andiswa |title=Deep Trouble |publisher=Global Energy Monitor |date=June 2021 |url=https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/CoalMines_2021_r4_23.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{tate2021deep, author = {Tate, Ryan Driskell and Shearer, Christine and Matikinca, Andiswa}, title = {{Deep Trouble}}, institution = {Global Energy Monitor}, year = {2021}, month = jun, url = {https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/CoalMines_2021_r4_23.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }