Deep Trouble

This report by Global Energy Monitor and Oxpeckers analyzes global coal mine proposals, finding that 2,277 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of new capacity is under development. This expansion is led by China, Australia, India, and Russia, and is largely inconsistent with the 1.5°C warming limit of the Paris climate agreement.

• There are 432 new coal mine developments and expansion projects currently announced or under development worldwide, totaling 2,277 mtpa of new capacity. Of this, 614 mtpa is already under construction, while 1,663 mtpa remains in the planning stages.
• The proposed coal mine capacity is heavily concentrated in four countries: China, Australia, India, and Russia, which together represent 77% (1,750 mtpa) of global development. China leads with 609 mtpa, followed by Australia (466 mtpa), India (376 mtpa), and Russia (299 mtpa).
• In China, proposed capacity is highly localized, with approximately 24% (544 mtpa) of the world's proposed mine capacity located in four provinces and regions: Inner Mongolia (234 mtpa), Xinjiang (123 mtpa), Shaanxi (95 mtpa), and Shanxi (92 mtpa).
• The development of these new mines contradicts the IEA's net-zero roadmap, which requires no new coal mines or extensions beyond 2021. If all proposed capacity is realized, 2030 coal production would be over four times the 1.5°C-compliant pathway.
• The annual greenhouse gas emissions from proposed coal mines—including combustion and methane leakage—are estimated to be between 5,000 and 5,800 Mt of CO2 equivalent (CO2e), a figure comparable to the annual CO2 emissions of the United States (5,100 Mt).
• The industry faces a significant stranded asset risk totaling up to $91 billion USD if projects are forced to shut down early due to the low-carbon transition. The risk is most immediate for projects under construction, representing $27 billion USD in capital costs.
• Approximately two-thirds of the proposals are "greenfield" developments (1,471 mtpa), indicating a willingness to start new mines that lock in long-term production. The remaining projects are "brownfield" expansions or recommissions.
• Thermal coal continues to dominate proposed capacity at 71%, though metallurgical coal for steel-making is more prominent in North America, where it accounts for 70% of proposed capacity.
• Public funding heavily subsidizes new coal in China and India, where the majority of projects are sponsored by state-owned enterprises. For example, Coal India (243 mtpa) is the largest company invested in proposed capacity.
• The median size for a new coal proposal is 3.5 mtpa. This mid-size scale allows projects to avoid the intense public scrutiny typically directed at mega-projects while still significantly increasing supply.

APA

Tate, R. D., Shearer, C., & Matikinca, A. (2021). Deep Trouble. Global Energy Monitor. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/CoalMines_2021_r4_23.pdf

Chicago

Tate, Ryan Driskell, Christine Shearer, and Andiswa Matikinca. Deep Trouble. Global Energy Monitor, 2021. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/CoalMines_2021_r4_23.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Tate |first1=Ryan Driskell |last2=Shearer |first2=Christine |last3=Matikinca |first3=Andiswa |title=Deep Trouble |publisher=Global Energy Monitor |date=June 2021 |url=https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/CoalMines_2021_r4_23.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{tate2021deep, author = {Tate, Ryan Driskell and Shearer, Christine and Matikinca, Andiswa}, title = {{Deep Trouble}}, institution = {Global Energy Monitor}, year = {2021}, month = jun, url = {https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/CoalMines_2021_r4_23.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }