Measuring the Impact - China’s coal fleet is becoming more flexible, but much of its potential remains untapped

China has rapidly expanded its flexible coal power capacity, exceeding its 2025 national target and positioning itself to meet a 2027 goal of retrofitting 500-700 GW. By the end of 2024, total flexible coal capacity exceeded 600 GW, with significant progress in provinces like Guangxi, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Xinjiang. While coal utilisation is generally declining and showing greater seasonal variability due to renewable growth and demand peaks, the document notes that the full potential of this technical flexibility is not yet reflected in system operations due to market design and institutional arrangements. The transition is supported by a capacity pricing mechanism and diversified revenue models, though flexible operation increases costs through higher maintenance, reduced fuel efficiency at low loads, and accelerated depreciation.

• China has surpassed its 2025 national target for coal power flexibility retrofits and is on track to meet its 2027 goal of retrofitting 500-700 GW of coal power units. Total flexible coal power capacity exceeded 600 GW by the end of 2024, with 360 GW of existing capacity retrofitted by the third quarter of 2024.
• Retrofit progress varies by province: Guangxi had retrofitted 84% of its units by September 2025, while Inner Mongolia had retrofitted 51.43 GW (nearly 70% of required units) by 2025. Xinjiang completed 36.83 GW by the end of 2024, and Shanxi retrofitted more than half of its fleet.
• Despite technical gains, the full potential of coal flexibility is not yet fully utilised in system operations, as market design and dispatch practices continue to influence activation. However, provinces with higher retrofit rates, such as Guangxi, have seen faster declines in coal utilisation, with its capacity factor falling by 19.6% between 2023 and 2025.
• Flexible operation of coal plants increases costs and reduces efficiency. Retrofit costs typically range from 500 CNY ($71.8 USD) to 1500 CNY ($215.2 USD) per kW. Operating at lower loads increases coal consumption per unit of electricity by approximately 10% at 40% load, 20% at 30% load, and nearly 60% at 20% load.
• To support the business case for coal as flexibility support, the government uses a capacity pricing mechanism and funding programmes. Coal power revenues now consist of electricity payments, capacity payments for system adequacy, and ancillary services payments for load and frequency regulation.

APA

Ember (2026). Measuring the Impact - China’s coal fleet is becoming more flexible, but much of its potential remains untapped. https://ember-energy.org/chapter/measuring-the-impact/

Chicago

Ember. Measuring the Impact - China’s coal fleet is becoming more flexible, but much of its potential remains untapped. 2026. https://ember-energy.org/chapter/measuring-the-impact/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Ember |title=Measuring the Impact - China’s coal fleet is becoming more flexible, but much of its potential remains untapped |date=10 February 2026 |url=https://ember-energy.org/chapter/measuring-the-impact/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ember2026measuring, author = {{Ember}}, title = {{Measuring the Impact - China’s coal fleet is becoming more flexible, but much of its potential remains untapped}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2026}, month = feb, url = {https://ember-energy.org/chapter/measuring-the-impact/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }