Search Climate Insights Directory

The authors argue that while digital technologies offer opportunities for efficiency in crisis response, they are not neutral and can compromise core humanitarian principles. The paper identifies five analytical prisms for future research: the politics of humanitarian space, the rise of public-private partnerships, new methods of aid distribution (such as e-transfers), the reorganization of relationships between aid providers and recipients, and the emergence of new data-driven vulnerabilities. It concludes that the 'do no harm' imperative requires a more reflective approach to technology to ensure that digital divides do not marginalize the most vulnerable and that data collection does not create new security risks.

The author examines the 'quantitative-qualitative mismatch' in conflict studies, where large-N statistical analyses often find no link between income inequality and violence, while case studies suggest a strong connection. The paper posits that political violence is a group phenomenon and therefore driven by horizontal inequalities (HIs)—systematic disparities between ethnic, religious, or regional groups—rather than vertical inequalities (VI) between individuals. The author proposes a theoretical framework where HIs create both motives (grievances) and opportunities (resources and cohesion) for mobilization. The review concludes that while measuring HIs is challenging, evidence from survey-based data and disaggregated studies supports the link between HIs and various forms of political violence, including civil war and urban disorder.

The authors present the During-Conflict Justice (DCJ) dataset, which catalogues 2,205 justice processes across 204 internal armed conflicts in 108 countries between 1946 and 2011. The research identifies that DCJ is a common tool, appearing in over 60% of conflicts since WWII, with governments being the primary adopters (70.4%). The study finds that democratic governments are more likely to use DCJ, particularly trials, truth commissions, and reparations, compared to autocracies. Rebel groups tend to use DCJ more frequently when fighting democracies and as their own relative military strength increases. Analysis suggests that government-initiated DCJ is correlated with a reduction in battle deaths in the following year and a higher likelihood of the conflict ending in a negotiated settlement rather than a military victory.

The author examines the challenges of gathering data on sexual violence in war, noting that it is often used as a political tool to demoralize enemies and reinforce masculinity. The text highlights historical examples from Nanking, Berlin, Rwanda, and Bosnia to illustrate the systemic nature of these crimes. It argues that current data collection is hindered by victim stigma, lack of uniform definitions, and poor baseline data. To move from 'overview to insight,' the author suggests that researchers must analyze how sexual violence interacts with national and gender identities, noting that victims who view themselves as 'ethnic victims' often find more social support than those who view themselves as 'female victims.'

The authors examine the causal links between climate change and armed conflict, finding a significant gap between dramatic political claims of 'climate wars' and actual empirical data. They note a paradox where global warming has accelerated while the number of ongoing conflicts has declined. The paper outlines five potential mechanisms—political instability, social fragmentation, economic instability, migration, and unintended policy consequences—through which environmental stress might indirectly influence conflict, but concludes that these effects are heavily mediated by existing state capacity and socio-political conditions.

The authors present the Non-State Actors (NSA) in Civil Wars dataset, covering internal armed conflicts from 1945 to 2011. The dataset shifts the unit of analysis from country-years to state-rebel group dyad spells, allowing researchers to examine the specific characteristics of opposition forces rather than just macro-level state variables. Key indicators include rebel strength relative to the government, territorial control, organizational structure (such as the presence of political wings), and external support from states or non-state actors. Descriptive statistics from the dataset show that while over 85% of rebel groups are weaker than their governments, nearly half are at least equal in their specific capacities to mobilize support, procure arms, and fight. The dataset is designed to be compatible with the Uppsala Conflict Data Project (UCDP) Dyadic Dataset to facilitate data aggregation across different research projects.

The author argues that the Government of Rwanda (GoR) is an active shaper of gender equality norms rather than a passive adopter. By analyzing national policy documents, the paper identifies two primary 'problem representations': gender inequality as a result of women's exclusion from the formal economy and as a consequence of citizens having the 'wrong mindset.' The author concludes that the GoR has repurposed these norms to serve a broader nationalist agenda, framing gender equality as a tool for sustainable economic development and the creation of a modern, loyal Rwandan citizen, thereby shifting the meaning of the norms away from the transformation of gendered power relations.

The author argues that while Pope Francis avoids the term 'just war' due to its historical misuse and the destructive nature of modern weaponry, he does not formally abolish the underlying doctrine. The text compares the Thomistic view of peace as a fruit of charity with Francis's emphasis on universal fraternity, concluding that the Pope's reservations are primarily about the terminology and the high threshold for proportionality in the nuclear age, rather than a total rejection of the right to legitimate defense.

The document provides a comprehensive overview of global conflict trends from 1989 to 2019, noting a record high of 54 state-based conflicts in 2019. It highlights the significant role of the Islamic State (IS) in driving recent conflict increases and the prevalence of internationalized civil conflicts. While battle-related deaths have generally decreased over the last 20 years, specific hotspots in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia remain deadly. The paper also analyzes the decline in peace agreements since 2015 and the persistence of non-state conflicts, particularly violent drug cartel activity in Latin America and communal violence in Africa.

The paper analyzes conflict dynamics in Africa from 1989 to 2019, noting a record high of 25 state-based conflicts in 2019, many of which are low-intensity or involve the Islamic State. While Africa faces rising non-state conflicts and one-sided violence, it also leads other regions in the number of definitive ceasefires and peace agreements. The study further details the growth of UN peacekeeping operations in the region from 1994 to 2018, highlighting a significant increase in troop deployment peaking in 2010.

The document examines the contested nature of 'power sharing,' noting that it is often implemented as a tool for conflict resolution but yields contradictory results in research. It identifies four primary types of power sharing: political, military, territorial, and economic. The author argues that findings vary based on whether researchers view power sharing as a means to achieve stable democracy (consociationalism) or as a tool for postconflict conflict management. While some studies suggest inclusive institutions prolong peace by addressing rebel security concerns, others argue they reward violence, strengthen ethnic divisions, and hinder democratic accountability by marginalizing opposition.

The report analyzes how Egypt and Uganda navigate their relationships with Northern and Southern Sudan ahead of the 2011 referendum. Egypt faces waning regional influence and security dilemmas related to the Nile and border stability, while Uganda maintains a strong strategic and economic partnership with the Southern Sudanese leadership to ensure regional stability and expand trade.

The document provides a comprehensive review of modern Just War theory, analyzing the criteria for entering war (jus ad bellum), conducting war (jus in bello), and ending war (jus post bellum). It highlights key tensions, such as the debate over humanitarian intervention, the morality of preventive war, and the 'moral equality of soldiers'—the question of whether combatants fighting an unjust war can still act justly in their conduct.

The research examines whether armed conflict contributes to excess female mortality by affecting reproductive health and maternal mortality. The study finds that while conflict is associated with moderately higher maternal mortality rates, its effect on overall fertility is only significant in low-income countries, where it may act as a deterrent to the demographic transition. Unexpectedly, the study identifies that conflicts in neighboring countries are associated with lower maternal mortality, potentially due to the effectiveness of international health interventions for refugee populations.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the Fourth Review of the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) for Rwanda on July 1, 2021, and approved a one-year extension of the program through June 27, 2023. The report assesses Rwanda's economic recovery following a 3.4 percent GDP contraction in 2020, focusing on balancing COVID-19 response measures with long-term fiscal sustainability and debt management.

This policy brief examines the integration of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) into Africa, focusing on the shift from resource trade to infrastructure and industrial cooperation. It highlights the opportunities for regional integration and industrialization, while warning of the financial risks associated with debt-based lending and the need for African governments to ensure project viability and local capacity building.

The document examines the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM), a voluntary governance assessment tool launched by the African Union in 2002 under the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD). It details the five-stage review process—ranging from national self-assessment to peer pressure from heads of state—and analyzes the varying degrees of civil society involvement in early adopters like Ghana, Rwanda, Mauritius, and Kenya. The authors argue that the efficacy of the APRM depends on the transparency of final reports and the willingness of African leadership to implement national action plans.

The report details Austria's limited historical and economic ties with Africa, noting that while North Africa maintains stronger diplomatic relations, trade and development assistance are focused on specific priority countries in East and Southern Africa. It highlights South Africa as Austria's primary African trading partner and discusses Austria's commitments to EU-Africa strategies during its 2006 EU Council presidency.

Ambassador-designate Chen Xiaodong describes a shift in China-Africa relations from government-led assistance to market-driven investment and trade. He highlights China's role as Africa's largest trading partner and a primary financier of infrastructure, while proposing new cooperation in the 'Fourth Industrial Revolution' and digital infrastructure. The speech also addresses COVID-19 support, debt relief for African nations, and a rejection of 'debt trap' narratives.

This policy brief by the South African Institute of International Affairs examines the gap between the African Union's (AU) normative commitments to democracy and human rights and the actual foreign policies of its member states. The author argues that strong sovereignty norms and a state-centric approach have hindered the domestication of human rights, leading to a state of 'stasis' or reversal in several countries. The brief recommends that the AU embrace global partnerships with civil society and that pivotal states like South Africa rejuvenate human rights as a core pillar of their external engagements to ensure continental stability.