Rwanda: Fourth Review of the Policy Coordination Instrument and Request of an Extension of the Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Rwanda; IMF Country Report No. 21/164; June 15, 2021

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the Fourth Review of the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) for Rwanda on July 1, 2021, and approved a one-year extension of the program through June 27, 2023. The report assesses Rwanda's economic recovery following a 3.4 percent GDP contraction in 2020, focusing on balancing COVID-19 response measures with long-term fiscal sustainability and debt management.

• Rwanda's economy contracted by 3.4 percent in 2020 due to the pandemic, but real GDP is projected to rebound by 5.1 percent in 2021, with growth expected to return to pre-pandemic trends by the end of 2023.
• The government is implementing a vaccination strategy to inoculate 20 percent of the population by June 2021 and 60 percent by June 2022, with total procurement costs estimated at USD 127.3 million (1.2 percent of GDP).
• Public and publicly-guaranteed (PPG) debt is projected to peak at 81.3 percent of GDP in 2022, with a target to converge to an anchor of 65 percent by 2030, two years later than previously projected.
• Rwanda's debt is assessed as sustainable with a moderate risk of external and overall public debt distress, although solvency risks are elevated and buffers have diminished.
• The authorities are launching a Medium-Term Revenue Strategy (MTRS-1) in July 2021 for FY21/22-FY23/24, aiming to increase the revenue-to-GDP ratio by 1 percentage point of GDP.
• The Economic Recovery Fund (ERF) is being revamped, increasing its size from USD 100 million to USD 357.5 million, including a new USD 150 million investment window for manufacturing and strategic sectors.
• The financial sector remains sound with a bank capital adequacy ratio of 22.3 percent as of end-March 2021, though credit risk has increased, with bank non-performing loans (NPLs) rising to 6.6 percent by the same date.
• The current account deficit is projected to widen to 13.4 percent of GDP in 2021, driven by a pickup in capital and intermediate goods imports and subdued tourism.
• To meet Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030, Rwanda is estimated to need additional resources of approximately 21.25 percent of GDP per year, an increase from the pre-pandemic gap of 15.7 percent.
• Program implementation has been strong, with all end-December 2020 quantitative targets met, although the reform target for automating the risk-based verification process for VAT refund claims was missed.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (n.d.). Rwanda: Fourth Review of the Policy Coordination Instrument and Request of an Extension of the Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Rwanda; IMF Country Report No. 21/164; June 15, 2021. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/1RWAEA2021002-1.pdf

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Rwanda: Fourth Review of the Policy Coordination Instrument and Request of an Extension of the Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Rwanda; IMF Country Report No. 21/164; June 15, 2021. n.d. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/1RWAEA2021002-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Rwanda: Fourth Review of the Policy Coordination Instrument and Request of an Extension of the Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Rwanda; IMF Country Report No. 21/164; June 15, 2021 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/1RWAEA2021002-1.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairsndrwanda, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Rwanda: Fourth Review of the Policy Coordination Instrument and Request of an Extension of the Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Rwanda; IMF Country Report No. 21/164; June 15, 2021}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/1RWAEA2021002-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }