The Sudan Referendum and Neighbouring Countries: Egypt and Uganda

The report analyzes how Egypt and Uganda navigate their relationships with Northern and Southern Sudan ahead of the 2011 referendum. Egypt faces waning regional influence and security dilemmas related to the Nile and border stability, while Uganda maintains a strong strategic and economic partnership with the Southern Sudanese leadership to ensure regional stability and expand trade.

• Egypt's regional influence is declining, and the country struggles with contradictions in its foreign policy, competing priorities, and the need to maintain relations with various Sudanese political factions. While Egypt prefers a united Sudan, its national interests prevent it from remaining neutral, though it could facilitate a peaceful secession.
• Egypt views an independent Southern Sudan as a potential security threat that could move the region further from its sphere of influence and increase the influence of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda. There is also a fear that secession could destabilize Northern Sudan, potentially leading to a security vacuum or the rise of radical Islamism.
• Water security is a central pillar of Egypt's Sudan policy, as it relies on the Nile for almost all its water. Egypt is concerned that an independent South would align with upstream riparian states like Ethiopia and Uganda to challenge existing water treaties. Egypt has used aid and the Jonglei Canal project to maintain influence, though the canal faces ecological and local opposition.
• Uganda is a primary foreign supporter of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) and the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS). Uganda provides military training, capacity building for civil servants, and logistical support for arms shipments, viewing Southern secession as a means to ensure regional stability.
• Uganda's interests in Southern Sudan are driven by security concerns regarding the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) and significant economic opportunities. Uganda has seen a massive expansion in exports to the South and is working to integrate Southern Sudan into the East African Community (EAC) through infrastructure projects like the Juba-Nimule road.
• Relations between Uganda and the government in Khartoum are strained due to mutual distrust and accusations of supporting rebel groups. Uganda has signaled it would arrest President Omar al-Bashir if he entered Ugandan soil following the International Criminal Court (ICC) indictment.

APA

Høigilt, J., Falch, Å., & Rolandsen, Ø. H. (n.d.). The Sudan Referendum and Neighbouring Countries: Egypt and Uganda. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1a2321f1-1f6b-4a2d-8e8d-6ca7d1c3f69d/Sudan-Referendum-and-Neighbouring-Countries-PRIO-Paper-2010.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Høigilt, Jacob, Åshild Falch, and Øystein H. Rolandsen. The Sudan Referendum and Neighbouring Countries: Egypt and Uganda. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1a2321f1-1f6b-4a2d-8e8d-6ca7d1c3f69d/Sudan-Referendum-and-Neighbouring-Countries-PRIO-Paper-2010.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Høigilt |first1=Jacob |last2=Falch |first2=Åshild |last3=Rolandsen |first3=Øystein H. |title=The Sudan Referendum and Neighbouring Countries: Egypt and Uganda |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1a2321f1-1f6b-4a2d-8e8d-6ca7d1c3f69d/Sudan-Referendum-and-Neighbouring-Countries-PRIO-Paper-2010.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{higiltndsudan, author = {Høigilt, Jacob and Falch, Åshild and Rolandsen, Øystein H.}, title = {{The Sudan Referendum and Neighbouring Countries: Egypt and Uganda}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1a2321f1-1f6b-4a2d-8e8d-6ca7d1c3f69d/Sudan-Referendum-and-Neighbouring-Countries-PRIO-Paper-2010.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }