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The document warns that the European Central Bank's potential interest rate hikes, prompted by inflation from the war against Iran, could disproportionately hinder renewable energy deployment compared to fossil fuels. It argues that reducing fossil fuel dependence is essential for long-term price stability and proposes the use of 'green' targeted longer term refinancing operations (TLTRO) to support the energy transition.

The report asserts that metallurgical coal demand is plateauing as the steel industry shifts toward low-carbon technologies like electric arc furnaces (EAFs) and green hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI). While some governments and financial institutions remain bullish on long-term growth, particularly in Asia, the document predicts a 4.8% drop in met coal consumption between 2025 and 2030. It highlights the risk of stranded assets, noting that 145 companies are planning expansions that could increase global capacity by 580 million tonnes per year. The report recommends scrapping subsidies for traditional steel, lowering industrial electricity prices, and using public procurement to prioritise green steel to accelerate the transition.

The First Conference for the Transition beyond Fossil Fuels, held in Santa Marta, Colombia, from April 24 to 29, aims to establish practical solutions for phasing out coal, oil, and gas. Co-sponsored by Colombia and the Netherlands, the event brings together at least 45 countries, including major exporters like Canada and Australia, though the largest producers—the US, China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia—are absent. The conference seeks to bypass the consensus-based delays of UN COPs to produce a report for COP30 and COP31, focusing on eliminating fossil fuel subsidies, planning production decline, and increasing renewable energy demand within a just transition framework.

In 2025, global electricity generation saw a significant shift toward low-carbon sources, with solar and wind reaching a combined 17.3% share of total generation. Solar was the fastest-growing source, adding 636 TWh and meeting 75% of global demand growth. Conversely, coal's share of global electricity fell below one-third for the first time on record to 33.0%, and renewable generation exceeded coal generation for the first time. Low-carbon sources (including nuclear) reached 42.6% of total generation, while the emissions intensity of electricity dropped by 2.7% in 2025, the largest annual decline in two decades.

The report provides a detailed analysis of the power sectors of seven major countries and regions in 2025, which collectively represent 72% of global electricity demand. Key trends include China's unprecedented solar growth and first absolute decline in power sector emissions since 2015, the US seeing wind and solar overtake nuclear power for the first time, and the EU's wind and solar generation exceeding fossil generation. India saw renewable growth double its demand increase, while Brazil maintained one of the cleanest systems globally with 87% renewable generation. Conversely, Russia and Japan continue to rely heavily on fossil fuels, with Russia's wind and solar remaining marginal at less than 1% of its mix.

In 2025, global electricity demand grew by 2.8% (849 TWh), all of which was met by low-carbon power generation, leading to a 0.2% decline in fossil fuel generation. Solar power was the primary driver, increasing by a record 636 TWh (30%) and meeting 75% of the net demand increase. For the first time in the modern era, renewables (33.8%) overtook coal (33.0%) in the global electricity mix. This shift was led by China and India, both of which saw declines in fossil generation in 2025. Additionally, battery storage is scaling rapidly, with costs falling 45% in 2025, enabling the shift of daytime solar generation to other hours.

The statement contends that the global fossil fuel system is inherently violent and volatile, citing 2026 conflicts in the Middle East and Venezuela as evidence. It advocates for the Santa Marta conference as a mechanism to move beyond the industry-influenced COP process to implement concrete actions, such as 'polluters pay' taxes on fossil fuel profits and grant-based climate finance for the Global South. The author asserts that the economic cost of fossil fuel price spikes outweighs the cost of transitioning to net zero, noting that 91% of new renewables projects are now cheaper than fossil fuel alternatives.

The briefing examines the impact of energy supply disruptions stemming from the US-Iran war, noting that the current crisis is larger than the 1970s oil embargo. It argues that while governments are using short-term fixes like strategic reserves and subsidies, the long-term solution lies in electrification, demand-side efficiency, and the scaling of 'green molecules' like hydrogen and ammonia. The text highlights specific vulnerabilities in Southeast Asia and the US, and suggests that mitigating methane leakage and flaring could recover energy volumes equivalent to approximately half of worldwide LNG trade.

The document examines how climate change and human activity are increasing the vulnerability of both fire-adapted and non-adapted forests. It highlights the severe carbon emissions and ecological losses from recent record-breaking fires in 2023 and 2024, particularly in Canada and South America. The text details the drivers of vulnerability—including forest fragmentation and drought—and proposes resilience strategies such as securing Indigenous land rights, implementing fire breaks, and expanding restoration financing.

Between 2021 and 2024, European banks provided US$41.9 billion to companies developing over 320 new gas power plants globally, with 63% of this funding coming from a small group of French and UK banks. The report links gas reliance to electricity price volatility, air pollution causing premature deaths, and the climate crisis, urging banks to shift funding from gas expansion to renewables.

The report explores how a differentiated global carbon tax—where rates are based on a country's income classification—could reduce fossil fuel emissions and foster economic growth in Africa. Under the 'Sustainable Africa' scenario, the African economy is projected to be 58% larger by 2050 than the 'Current Path', with significant reductions in extreme poverty and near-total electricity access, despite a larger economy. The document also highlights Africa's potential as a carbon sink through reforestation and land management to attract investment and carbon credits.

The report outlines a five-step strategy for the European Union to achieve energy sovereignty by transitioning away from fossil fuel imports, which currently account for nearly 60% of its primary energy supply. It emphasizes that 89% of final energy demand can be met through electrification using existing technologies, which would significantly lower exposure to supply shocks since 81% of electricity production is domestic. The document proposes specific actions: accelerating electrification, interconnecting the European power grid, deploying energy storage to replace gas for balancing, decarbonizing heavy industry, and using the EU Methane Regulation to phase out high-risk imports from suppliers like Russia and the United States. Financially, the report notes that EU clean energy investments reached approximately 346 billion euros in 2025, but argues that 1,500 billion euros per year are needed until 2050 to complete the transition.

The report outlines a five-step strategy for the EU to transition from risky fossil fuel imports to domestic clean energy, emphasizing electrification, grid connectivity, flexibility, industrial decarbonization, and the use of the EU Methane Regulation to phase out high-emission imports.

The policy brief asserts that the European Union's reliance on fossil fuel imports—nearly 60% of its primary energy supply—creates critical vulnerabilities. It proposes a five-step strategy focusing on electrification, grid interconnection, flexible energy systems, industrial decarbonization, and the use of the EU Methane Emissions Regulation (MER) to phase out high-risk suppliers. The document highlights that 89% of final energy demand can be electrified with current technology, which would significantly reduce exposure to external shocks and improve industrial competitiveness.

The report identifies the EU's reliance on fossil fuel imports—nearly 60% of primary energy supplies—as a structural geopolitical risk. It proposes a five-step framework (Electrify, Connect, Flex, Decarbonise, and Shield) to enhance energy sovereignty. Key recommendations include increasing electrification, expanding the interconnected grid, deploying energy storage, decarbonising heavy industry, and using the EU Methane Emissions Reduction (MER) regulation to phase out high-risk suppliers like Russia and the USA. The document emphasizes that while clean energy investments reached approximately 346 billion EUR in 2025, they must scale to 1.5 trillion EUR annually by 2050 to achieve the transition.

The European Union remains vulnerable to global energy shocks due to a high dependency on fossil fuel imports, nearly 60% of its primary energy supply. While the EU has reduced reliance on Russian gas, it has increased exposure to US LNG, which the report identifies as a significant political and economic risk. To achieve energy sovereignty, the report proposes five key actions: accelerating electrification (where 89% of demand is technically electrifiable), enhancing grid interconnectivity, deploying energy storage and demand flexibility, decarbonising heavy industry through green public procurement and product mandates, and leveraging the EU Methane Regulation (EU MER) to disincentivise high-emitting imports. Financing this transition will require an average of EUR1.5tn per year through 2050, primarily driven by private capital and the GSS+ bond market.

The document introduces investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) as a mechanism allowing foreign investors to bring claims against host states before international tribunals. It highlights that the mining sector is one of the most frequent targets of such claims, which can result in large monetary awards and delay regulatory reforms. The brief details how consent for ISDS is established through investment treaties, domestic laws, and contracts, and notes a growing trend of claims linked to the demand for critical minerals. It concludes with recommendations for governments to manage ISDS risks through inter-agency coordination, thorough documentation, and legal coherence.

Analysis of the Global Oil and Gas Extraction Tracker (GOGET) reveals that oil and gas fields now take significantly longer to come online than in the 1960–1980 period, with 2025 startups averaging 15.1 years. This increase is driven by the depletion of easily accessible fields, forcing companies to target technically challenging 'hard-to-recover' reserves, such as ultra-high pressure '20K technology' fields in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and remote Arctic projects in Russia. Additional delays stem from reservoir compositions (e.g., sour gas), ecological risks in protected areas, and more stringent environmental regulations, such as the UK's 2025 guidance on scope three emissions. The report argues that these long lead times increase the risk of creating stranded assets and locking in production that contradicts global climate targets to limit warming to 1.5°C.

The report identifies high tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and a lack of regional value chains as primary obstacles to Africa's economic growth. It highlights a disconnect between Africa's focus on individual national economies and the global shift toward regional value chains, while noting that current global trends—including a move away from long transport routes to reduce carbon emissions and geopolitical shifts—could potentially benefit Africa's growing consumer base.

The report analyzes global carbon emissions, noting that 2023 saw record levels of 36.1 billion tons of CO2 equivalent from fossil fuels. It highlights the dominance of a few producers and the significant impact of coal and methane. While China and the EU are pursuing decarbonization, the US experience fluctuates with political administrations. The report forecasts a peak in emissions by 2037/8, but warns that atmospheric CO2 concentrations could reach 551 ppm by 2063, potentially leading to a 3°C temperature rise. Africa is identified as particularly vulnerable, facing increasing emissions from population growth and significant forest loss, with 100 million hectares cleared over three decades.