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Built to peak: Coal power expansion runs out of room in China
China experienced a record surge in coal power commissioning and project proposals in 2025, despite a decline in actual coal power generation and the rapid growth of clean energy and storage. The report highlights a growing gap between investment decisions and system realities, noting that new capacity is dominated by large, inflexible units designed for baseload operation. This trend risks creating stranded assets and structural barriers to decarbonisation. The authors argue that the 15th Five-Year Plan must end net coal capacity growth and shift coal's role from a primary energy source to a flexible, residual support system to meet 2030 climate targets.
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Document type: Report
Forging ahead: China’s electricity transition in action
China is transitioning from a focus on adding renewable capacity to building a "new electricity system" that integrates high levels of variable energy. In 2024, China invested $625 billion USD in clean energy, significantly outpacing other major regions. This shift, combined with expanding electrification in industry, transport, and buildings, is contributing to a structural decline in fossil fuel generation. By the first half of 2025, combined wind and solar generation surpassed the combined output of hydro, nuclear, and bioenergy, and total installed capacity for these sources exceeded that of coal for the first time.
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Document type: Report
China risks missing multiple climate commitments as coal power approvals continue
China is currently off track to meet its 2025 climate commitments, including targets for carbon and energy intensity and the share of non-fossil fuels. This is driven by a surge in coal power permitting and construction, with 114 GW approved and 70 GW starting construction in 2023. Despite official rhetoric that new coal plants serve a 'supporting' role for grid stability and renewable integration, the report finds this is often a 'smokescreen' for bulk power generation, leading to significant overcapacity and stranded asset risks.
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Document type: Briefing
Northwestern China Power System Decarbonization: Moving toward Zero-Carbon in Qinghai Province
The report analyzes the path toward a zero-carbon power system in Qinghai province, China, by 2030. It identifies three primary challenges: the scale of renewables generation, consumption, and export; the flexibility requirements of a zero-carbon system; and operational challenges associated with high renewables penetration. To address these, the report evaluates the potential of battery energy storage systems, concentrated solar power, and green hydrogen for system flexibility, while proposing power market reforms including capacity pricing mechanisms and diversified ancillary services.
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Document type: Report
中国煤电发展 的动因和转型 切入点
The report examines why China's coal power capacity continued to grow between 2016 and 2020 despite decarbonization goals, citing both surface-level needs (supply security, heating) and deep-seated drivers (local government enthusiasm, rigid dispatch mechanisms). It argues that coal power must transition into a 'supportive role' providing flexibility and backup for wind and solar. To achieve this, the authors suggest four policy entry points: breaking path dependency by curbing local government enthusiasm, reforming electricity markets to incentivize flexibility, coordinating coal and electricity policies to ensure supply security, and adopting a reflexive, inclusive governance model.
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Document type: Report
China's Actions on Clean Power
China has become a global leader in renewable energy investment and wind capacity, though it remains heavily dependent on coal for electricity and heat. While the 12th Five Year Plan sets targets for increasing non-fossil fuel use and reducing carbon emissions intensity, the country faces challenges such as grid connectivity for wind power and water shortages in arid provinces due to coal base construction. The government is also piloting emissions trading schemes in several cities and provinces as a precursor to a national system by 2015.
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Document type: Briefing
China’s Actions on Clean Power
The document examines China's energy landscape as of 2012, highlighting its position as a global leader in renewable energy investment and wind capacity despite a heavy reliance on coal for electricity. It details the growth of the solar and wind sectors, the environmental and water-related costs of coal combustion, and the climate goals established under the 12th Five Year Plan, including targets for non-fossil fuel use and the implementation of carbon pricing mechanisms.
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Document type: Policy brief
China at the Turn of the 21st Century
The document is a collection of academic contributions from the 2001 NACS conference. It explores the complexities of China's transition to a market economy, focusing on the adaptability of the Communist Party, the challenges of urban neighbourhood governance in Shanghai, the dilemmas of bilingual education in Tibetan areas, and the development of indigenous social sciences. It also examines specific cases such as microcredit for poverty alleviation and the failure of a Sino-Norwegian environmental technology project in Yantai.
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Document type: Report
Draft 2 - China Briefing Draft - 18/06/26
China is leading global utility-scale solar and wind expansion, with a massive pipeline of prospective capacity concentrated in six northwestern and northern provinces. However, the 'megabase' strategy faces significant hurdles, including rising curtailment and a transmission network that remains heavily reliant on coal. While the growth of green hydrogen and standalone battery storage offers a path toward local industrial decarbonization, there is a risk that these renewables will merely supplement rather than replace coal-based industries. The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) continues renewable growth but maintains a role for fossil fuels, suggesting that transmission and market flexibility remain the primary bottlenecks for a full transition.
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Document type: Briefing
Chinese Version 中文翻译--Draft 2 - China Briefing Draft - 18/06/26
China leads the world in planned utility-scale solar and wind capacity, with over 500GW already under construction. However, the transition has shifted from a 'capacity race' to a 'system integration' phase, where transmission bottlenecks and a continued reliance on coal-fired power for grid stability lead to increasing curtailment, particularly in the northwest and northern regions. While green hydrogen and local consumption offer paths for industrial decarbonization, there is a risk that these technologies may be used to justify the continued expansion of coal-based chemical industries.
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Document type: Briefing