Search Climate Insights Directory

The report analyzes how climate change acts as a driver of conflict in Nigeria, specifically through resource competition, livelihood loss, and displacement. It details the interaction between environmental stressors and security issues, such as farmer-herder clashes and recruitment into armed groups like Boko Haram. The document proposes a five-step sequence to mainstream conflict sensitivity and peacebuilding into the National Adaptation Plan (NAP), ranging from institutional framework development to the inclusion of peacebuilding markers in monitoring and evaluation.

The report details the compilation of pilot ecosystem accounts for Kaduna and Nasarawa states in Nigeria between 2015 and 2020. Using the SEEA-EA framework and ARIES AI technology, the study estimated biophysical supply for climate regulation (carbon storage), soil retention, crop production, pollination, and water supply. Findings indicate that while total carbon stocks and soil retention remained relatively stable, there were significant shifts in land cover, including an increase in deciduous broadleaf forests and a loss of shrublands. The report emphasizes the lack of local geo-referenced data and the need for an institutional framework to support independent national environmental accounting.

The Kurna community in Kano State, Nigeria, implemented the Afforestation Drive, a locally-led adaptation project using nature-based solutions to combat extreme heat and air pollution. Led by Dr. Dahiru Muhammad Hashim and the Panacea Foundation, the initiative planted over 2,000 adaptive trees in Kurna and expanded to plant 135,382 trees across Kano State. The project utilized an open-source digital data kit for monitoring and focused on indigenous species to improve air quality, reduce respiratory diseases, and create new livelihood opportunities through fruit trading. Despite success, the project faced barriers such as government bureaucracy and lack of funding, highlighting the need for a shift from top-down climate strategies to models that devolve decision-making and resources to frontline communities.

The March 2022 attacks on the Abuja-Kaduna railway, which resulted in deaths and 168 kidnappings, indicate a shift toward targeting state infrastructure by bandits and violent extremists. These groups, including Boko Haram and Ansaru, fund their operations through a kidnapping economy, with an estimated US$18.34 million paid in ransoms between 2011 and 2020. The attacks threaten the economic viability of the railway, which generates N300 million monthly, and highlight the need for intelligence-led security and the resolution of underlying socio-economic issues like poverty and corruption.

The report identifies significant barriers to digitising cash transfers in Nigeria, including regulatory restrictions on agent e-float, low recipient digital literacy, and a lack of economic incentive for financial service providers (FSPs) to serve poor, rural populations. While mobile phone penetration is relatively high, most recipients use basic feature phones and prefer cash due to ease of access and lack of network reliability. The document proposes segmenting recipients by 'digital payment readiness' and digitising community savings groups as entry points for financial inclusion. It also highlights the inefficiency of current 'virtual accounts' that require 100% cash-out, arguing for a transition toward permanent digital wallets and merchant payment systems to reduce liquidity burdens and fraud.

Nigeria's response to Covid-19 was characterized by low reported death rates, potentially due to limited testing capacity, and a reliance on lockdowns that exacerbated poverty for low-income earners. The pandemic exposed critical weaknesses in the national health system, which had received funding below the 15% Abuja Declaration target, and highlighted the economic risk of the country's heavy dependence on oil revenue. To mitigate economic contraction, the government adjusted its oil benchmark price, secured a $3.4 billion IMF loan, and implemented various tax reliefs and intervention funds for small businesses and the healthcare sector.

The report identifies immediate opportunities to electrify agricultural processing in Nigeria, categorizing activities into three tiers of readiness. Tier 1 activities—cassava grating, rice milling, and flour milling—are deemed immediately viable, capable of reducing mini-grid tariffs by up to 26% if all three are implemented. The study proposes the 'Facilitator Model' for Tier 1 and the 'Processing Center Model' for Tier 2 to address barriers such as lack of credit and reliable electricity. A deployment strategy is recommended to unlock commercial finance through credit guarantees and grants, with an estimated national investment of under $30 million required for Tier 1 activities.

The report assesses gender disparities in Nigeria, specifically within Northern states targeted for solar IPP sub-projects. It identifies systemic barriers for women, including limited land ownership, lower literacy rates, and energy poverty, while outlining a regulatory framework and a Gender Action Plan to promote inclusive employment and energy access.

The research examines how the JAS Shiroro cell has successfully expanded into Central Nigeria by blending jihadist ideology with local Fulani banditry. Led by Abubakar Saidu (alias Sadiku), the cell utilizes a flexible approach that tolerates the non-religious vices of bandits in exchange for weapons, fighters, and local knowledge. The group operates from forest camps, conducting attacks and kidnappings, while maintaining supply lines for weapons and finance from Lake Chad. The document also highlights emerging alignments with the Lakurawa group and the broader threat of coordination between various armed factions, arguing that Nigeria's counter-terrorism strategy must expand beyond the Lake Chad Basin to address these regional dynamics.

The report identifies significant energy gaps in Nigeria's healthcare system, noting that 40% of primary healthcare centres (PHCs) lack electricity. It proposes a phased roadmap to electrify 10,000 functional PHCs by 2030, estimating a total cost of $525 million for CAPEX and OPEX over 15 years. The document analyzes three delivery models—traditional equipment ownership, service-based, and a proposed hybrid model—recommending the hybrid approach for Type 2 PHCs to balance private sector efficiency with public sector constraints. Key recommendations include the creation of a centralized dynamic database for health facility energy status and the use of blended financing to mitigate risks for private energy service companies.

The report identifies significant energy gaps in Nigeria's healthcare system, where 40% of primary healthcare centres lack electricity, contributing to poor health outcomes. It maps the complex governance structure across federal, state, and local governments and reviews renewable energy policies, such as the National Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Policy (NREEEP). The analysis reveals a heavy reliance on donor-funded EPC models for electrification, with a noted lack of coordination between the energy and health sectors. It highlights the NPHCDA's '1 PHC per ward' plan to revitalize 10,000 facilities with solar power and recommends stronger cross-sectoral collaboration through initiatives like the Coalition for Sustainable Electrification of PHCs.

The report identifies significant gaps in electricity access and data consistency across Nigeria's healthcare system. While the Federal Ministry of Health estimates 40,017 facilities, the majority are primary healthcare centres (PHCs), many of which are non-functional or lack reliable power. The document highlights a fragmented data landscape and recommends the creation of a centralized, standardized dataset to coordinate electrification efforts.