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Ember argues that Indonesia's energy transition requires more ambitious emissions targets and a stronger regulatory framework, particularly for the underregulated captive coal sector. The organization recommends integrating JETP investments with long-term economic diversification in coal-dependent provinces to ensure a just transition. Ember also highlights a significant gap in solar deployment, noting that Indonesia reached only 416 MW of on-grid solar capacity last year against a 2025 target of 4.1 GW, and calls for more transparent procurement processes by PLN.

Ember argues that Indonesia's JETP 2025 scenario is insufficiently ambitious, particularly regarding the captive power sector, where it suggests that integrating solar PV could significantly reduce emissions. The brief calls for the inclusion of captive power in peaking emission targets, the removal of solar quotas, and the redirection of JETP investments toward coal-producing provinces to mitigate fiscal vulnerabilities and job losses.

The research paper analyzes clean cooking policies across 43 G20 countries, finding that 50%–70% of public spending is directed toward direct fiscal support, primarily LPG subsidies. It argues that these subsidies often fail to reach the poorest populations, create fiscal burdens, and undermine energy security and climate goals. The author recommends that G20 nations phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies and implement national roadmaps prioritizing electricity, biogas, and solar energy to meet SDG 7 targets by 2030.

The document defines fossil fuel subsidies as mechanisms that price fuels below real costs, noting that explicit subsidies reached USD 1.1 trillion in 2023, while total estimates including climate and health costs exceed USD 7 trillion. It argues that these subsidies distort markets, encourage overconsumption, and undermine energy security by increasing vulnerability to global price shocks. The guide highlights that reform can reduce CO2 emissions by 1%–10% by 2030 and generate fiscal savings for reinvestment in clean energy. It notes that broad subsidies often disproportionately benefit high-income households, with the top 20% receiving up to six times more benefits than the poorest 20%. Examples of successful reforms are cited from Indonesia, India, and Italy. The document also details the role of COFFIS in improving transparency through national subsidy inventories and phase-out plans.

The G20 is characterized as an effective platform for macroeconomic crisis response that consistently fails to address systemic inequities, debt burdens, and environmental degradation. While the forum represents 85% of global GDP, its legitimacy is contested due to the dominance of G7 members and the fact that G20 members provided $1.4tn in explicit fossil-fuel support in 2022. The report notes that recent Global South presidencies (Indonesia, India, Brazil, and South Africa) have shifted priorities toward energy transition financing, digital public infrastructure, taxation of the super-rich, and care economies. The author recommends that the G20 redefine 'crisis' to include human and planetary security and integrate justice metrics into its coordination efforts.

Indonesia faces a significant funding gap to meet its 2030 climate targets, requiring approximately $19 billion annually. Between 2019 and 2023, investment in fossil fuel power plants was nearly double that of renewable energy, heavily driven by international private finance. While renewable energy investment is dominated by baseload sources like hydro and geothermal, variable RE such as solar and wind began growing in 2021. A critical challenge is the rise of captive fossil-fuel power plants used for nickel processing, which are exempt from certain coal-fired power plant bans.

The Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF) has launched with an initial $5 billion to reward countries and Indigenous communities for forest protection, with a long-term goal of reaching $125 billion to generate $4 billion in annual funding. Additionally, the Forest and Land Tenure Pledge secured $1.8 billion from four governments and various foundations to support Indigenous land protection. In Indonesia, the government committed to quadrupling the recognition of Indigenous lands to 1.4 million hectares of customary forests. Despite these gains, the document notes that nature receives less than 3% of total climate finance, despite representing 37% of the climate solution.

The report finds that while total emissions from 25 major emitters may peak by 2026, current policies are insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal. Fifteen countries are likely on track to meet their 2030 unconditional NDC targets, while nine are off track, including the US, UK, and Japan. Projections for the US have worsened due to policy rollbacks, and eight countries are already projected to miss their 2035 unconditional NDC targets.

Indonesia's coal production reached a record 836 million tonnes in 2024, but is projected to fall to approximately 755-756 million tonnes in 2025. This decline is driven by a contraction in export markets, particularly in China and India, where domestic production and renewable energy deployment are displacing Indonesian imports. While Indonesia's domestic demand continues to grow—driven by the power sector and metal processing industries—it is insufficient to offset the export losses. The report notes that Indonesia's long-term coal demand trajectory remains misaligned with Paris Agreement goals.

Indonesia's coal industry has seen significant growth, leading to a surge in coal mine methane (CMM) emissions that are largely underreported by the government and industry. Ember estimates 2024 CMM emissions at 722 kt CH4, far exceeding the official figure of 168 kt CH4. This discrepancy is attributed to ineffective monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) frameworks and the exclusion of high-emission underground mines from official estimates. The report warns that the development of large underground mines, specifically one in South Kalimantan, will cause total CMM emissions to increase by approximately 25% by 2030, even if national coal production declines by 14%.

Indonesia's coal sector is facing a downturn as production records in 2024 are met with declining export demand from China and India and rising production costs. This oversupply has eroded company profits and state non-tax revenues. Simultaneously, coal mine methane (CMM) emissions are significantly underreported and are projected to rise by 25% by 2030, driven by the expansion of underground mining in South Kalimantan. The report recommends a moratorium on new mines, improved methane monitoring, and a just transition framework for coal-dependent regions.

The report details a downturn in Indonesia's coal sector, where a strategy of increasing production volumes to offset falling global prices is contributing to market oversupply. This trend, combined with rising operational costs from inflation and new biodiesel mandates (B40), has led to a decline in net income for producers. Consequently, state non-tax revenues and provincial fiscal transfers to coal-dependent regions like East Kalimantan and South Sumatra have dropped significantly since the 2022 price peak.

RMI highlights the transition from climate commitments to action across several global regions. China is leading in renewable deployment and clean tech exports, while Brazil focuses on low-carbon shipping and ambitious NDCs as the COP30 host. India is pursuing energy independence by 2047 through clean mobility and cooling innovations. Southeast Asia is scaling clean infrastructure and battery storage, and the United States continues to see subnational progress in grid optimization and clean industrialization despite federal delegation concerns.

The document evaluates the first decade of the Paris Agreement, arguing that climate finance delivery has been characterized by "incremental promises, contentious negotiations, evolving priorities and an erosion of trust amongst Parties." It highlights a significant investment deficit in Africa, where the region receives only 3% of global climate finance flows despite its high vulnerability. The brief critiques the delayed and contested achievement of the US$100 billion annual goal, the underfunding of adaptation and loss and damage, and the over-reliance on debt-creating loans over grants. It calls for a shift toward public-led, concessional finance and systemic reforms to the global financial architecture to ensure equity and transparency ahead of COP30.

The Principles for Taxonomy Interoperability, published by the Climate Bonds Initiative as part of the Taxonomy Roadmap Initiative, provide a framework to make diverse national and regional sustainable finance taxonomies comparable. The document argues that while local priorities necessitate different criteria, interoperability—based on common language, structures, and scientific baselines—is essential for scaling private climate finance. It outlines seven principles covering foundation, design, use cases, coverage, complexity, market signaling, and international collaboration. Additionally, it provides guidance on core design pillars such as sector structure (based on ISIC), common environmental objectives, and transition approaches (binary, traffic light, or merged).

The report outlines seven principles for taxonomy interoperability to facilitate cross-border capital flows for sustainable finance. It emphasizes the use of common terminology, scientific baselines, and collaborative international efforts to align diverse national taxonomies without requiring them to be identical.

ClientEarth outlines three legal imperatives for COP30: combating climate disinformation, translating the ICJ's Advisory Opinion into 1.5°C-compatible domestic laws, and establishing enforceable corporate accountability for environmental harms. The brief emphasizes the transition from voluntary pledges to mandatory legal compliance to ensure the goals of the Paris Agreement are met.

In 2023, climate finance to EMDEs surpassed USD 1 trillion, with 80% sourced domestically and China accounting for 64% of total flows. While mitigation finance grew to USD 979 billion, it remains far below the estimated USD 3.86 trillion annual need. Adaptation finance totaled USD 48 billion, showing significant unevenness as the top 20% of countries received over 70% of these funds. International public finance exceeded USD 159 billion, but faces potential declines due to ODA cuts, while international private finance rose to USD 49 billion. The report emphasizes that EMDEs require nearly USD 4 trillion annually through 2030 to achieve climate goals.

The report catalogs 30 operational financial mechanisms for tropical forests, totaling US$ 25.9 billion in planned, issued, and disbursed funds. It highlights a significant funding gap compared to the US$ 66.8 billion annually needed by 2030, noting that 31% of identified funds have not yet been disbursed. The analysis emphasizes that while conservation currently dominates funding, restoration offers higher potential for private and blended finance, and jurisdictional REDD+ remains the most significant instrument, representing over US$ 15.3 billion.

The report maps 30 international financial mechanisms totaling US$ 25.9 billion aimed at tropical forests, highlighting a significant funding gap compared to the US$ 66.8 billion annual need identified by UNEP. It analyzes the roles of various actors, the prevalence of result-based payments like REDD+, and the geographic concentration of funds in Latin America, specifically Brazil and Guyana.