Indonesia’s coal sector at a crossroads as output set to fall

A report by Ember analyzing the current state and outlook of Indonesia's coal sector, noting a shift from record production levels toward a projected decline in 2025 driven by weakening export demand from major partners like China and India.

• Indonesia's coal production reached record highs for three consecutive years, peaking at 836 million tonnes in 2024, which exceeded the government's target of 710 million tonnes. This growth was supported by a regulatory change by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) that shifted annual production approvals to a three-year cycle, resulting in approved plans exceeding 900 million tonnes for the period from 2024 to 2026.
• Coal production is projected to decline in 2025, with estimates suggesting it will reach approximately 755 to 756 million tonnes. This downturn is driven by a projected export decline of 46 million tonnes, which is expected to outweigh a projected domestic demand increase of 14 million tonnes. Data from the first half of 2025 already shows a year-on-year production fall of 33 million tonnes (8.13%), with export volumes dropping by 9.8% and export value falling by 21.8% (4.2 billion USD).
• Major export markets China and India, which account for roughly 60% of Indonesian coal exports, are reducing their reliance on imports by increasing domestic production and expanding renewable energy. In the first half of 2025, exports to China fell by 20% (20.9 million tonnes) and to India by 9.55% (5.7 million tonnes). In China, solar and wind installations doubled in H1 2025, contributing to a 67.3 TWh decline in coal output. In India, solar and wind deployment rose by 56% in H1 2025, while coal generation fell by 3.1% (21.64 TWh).
• Domestic coal demand in Indonesia is growing but is concentrated in the power and metals sectors. Power sector demand rose from 62 million tonnes in 2013 to 139 million tonnes in 2024, though the government has pledged to stop new grid-connected coal plants under Presidential Regulation No. 112 / 2022. The metals sector has become a primary driver, with nickel and other metal processing now representing 31% of domestic consumption, adding 4.2 GW of captive coal capacity in 2024.

APA

Ember (2025). Indonesia’s coal sector at a crossroads as output set to fall. https://ember-energy.org/chapter/indonesias-coal-sector-at-a-crossroads-as-output-set-to-fall/

Chicago

Ember. Indonesia’s coal sector at a crossroads as output set to fall. 2025. https://ember-energy.org/chapter/indonesias-coal-sector-at-a-crossroads-as-output-set-to-fall/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Ember |title=Indonesia’s coal sector at a crossroads as output set to fall |date=6 November 2025 |url=https://ember-energy.org/chapter/indonesias-coal-sector-at-a-crossroads-as-output-set-to-fall/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ember2025indonesias, author = {{Ember}}, title = {{Indonesia’s coal sector at a crossroads as output set to fall}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2025}, month = nov, url = {https://ember-energy.org/chapter/indonesias-coal-sector-at-a-crossroads-as-output-set-to-fall/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }