Indonesia’s coal sector at a crossroads as output set to fall

Indonesia's coal production reached a record 836 million tonnes in 2024, but is projected to fall to approximately 755-756 million tonnes in 2025. This decline is driven by a contraction in export markets, particularly in China and India, where domestic production and renewable energy deployment are displacing Indonesian imports. While Indonesia's domestic demand continues to grow—driven by the power sector and metal processing industries—it is insufficient to offset the export losses. The report notes that Indonesia's long-term coal demand trajectory remains misaligned with Paris Agreement goals.

• Indonesia's coal production hit a record high of 836 million tonnes in 2024, surpassing the government's 710 million tonne target. This growth was supported by a regulatory shift by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) that changed annual production approvals to three-year approvals, leading to an approved production plan exceeding 900 million tonnes for the period 2024-2026.
• Coal production is projected to decline in 2025, with estimates placing it at 756 million tonnes or 755 million tonnes (per IEA). Early data from the first half of 2025 shows a year-on-year production drop of 33 million tonnes (8.13%), with export volumes falling by 9.8% and export value dropping by 21.8% (4.2 billion USD).
• Major export markets China and India are reducing their reliance on Indonesian coal. In the first half of 2025, exports to China fell by 20% (20.9 million tonnes) and to India by 9.55% (5.7 million tonnes). This is attributed to both countries increasing their own domestic production and the rapid expansion of solar and wind energy, which is displacing coal in their power mixes.
• Domestic coal demand in Indonesia is rising, projected to increase by 6% (14 million tonnes) in 2025, primarily driven by the power sector and metal processing industries. The metals sector has become a key driver, accounting for 31% of domestic consumption. However, the report states that the coal demand trajectory is not aligned with the Paris Agreement's Long-term Strategy.

APA

Ember (2025). Indonesia’s coal sector at a crossroads as output set to fall. https://ember-energy.org/chapter/indonesias-coal-sector-at-a-crossroads-as-output-set-to-fall/

Chicago

Ember. Indonesia’s coal sector at a crossroads as output set to fall. 2025. https://ember-energy.org/chapter/indonesias-coal-sector-at-a-crossroads-as-output-set-to-fall/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Ember |title=Indonesia’s coal sector at a crossroads as output set to fall |date=6 November 2025 |url=https://ember-energy.org/chapter/indonesias-coal-sector-at-a-crossroads-as-output-set-to-fall/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ember2025indonesias, author = {{Ember}}, title = {{Indonesia’s coal sector at a crossroads as output set to fall}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2025}, month = nov, url = {https://ember-energy.org/chapter/indonesias-coal-sector-at-a-crossroads-as-output-set-to-fall/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }