Response to Indonesia’s Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) Progress Report 2025

This policy brief by Ember responds to Indonesia’s Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) Progress Report 2025. It argues that Indonesia must adopt more ambitious emission targets, specifically by integrating the captive power sector into peaking emission scenarios and accelerating the retirement of coal plants. The document highlights the potential for solar PV to replace ageing captive coal plants and emphasizes the need for a just transition that provides economic diversification and investment in coal-producing provinces to mitigate fiscal and employment risks.

• The JETP 2025 scenario proposes a fossil fuel capacity of 53% by 2030, consisting of 30% coal and 23% gas. Ember notes that the current plan to consider 1.6 GW of coal power plants for early retirement and reuse is significantly lower than the 5.5 GW proposed in 2023.
• The captive power sector represents a major decarbonisation opportunity because renewable energy prices are competitive with coal in this market, as coal transactions here do not follow the government's domestic price cap. Ember estimates that integrating 9.4 GW of new solar capacity into 6.8 GW of ageing captive coal plants could reduce emissions by 35%, or approximately 4.4 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e).
• Current JETP emission projections for 2030 exceed previously announced caps. The on-grid target is <250 MtCO2e (peak), while captive power emissions are projected to decline from 122 MtCO2e in 2024 to 99 MtCO2e by 2030. This results in total power sector emissions of at least 349 MtCO2e in 2030, which is above the 290 MtCO2e cap announced in 2023.
• To accelerate the transition, Ember recommends several policy reforms: removing solar quotas, abolishing the Domestic Price Obligation (DPO) scheme while maintaining the Domestic Market Obligation (DMO), enabling power wheeling, and introducing net-metering incentives.
• Coal-producing regions face significant fiscal vulnerability due to the global energy transition. Between 2023 and 2025, provincial fiscal transfers declined by 41% for East Kalimantan, 30% for South Kalimantan, and 23% for South Sumatera.
• The energy transition poses a risk of substantial job losses in the coal sector, with the Global Energy Monitor projecting nearly 17,000 coal-related jobs could be lost by 2050 due to mine closures. Ember suggests that renewable projects and CFPP substitution could instead mobilise $9.5 billion in investments and create nearly 100,000 jobs across three major coal provinces.

APA

Setyawati, D. D., & Setiawan, D. (2025). Response to Indonesia’s Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) Progress Report 2025. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Policy-paper-–-Indonesia-JETP-2025.pdf

Chicago

Setyawati, Dr Dinita, and Dody Setiawan. Response to Indonesia’s Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) Progress Report 2025. Ember, 2025. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Policy-paper-–-Indonesia-JETP-2025.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Setyawati |first1=Dr Dinita |last2=Setiawan |first2=Dody |title=Response to Indonesia’s Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) Progress Report 2025 |publisher=Ember |date=24 November 2025 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Policy-paper-–-Indonesia-JETP-2025.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{setyawati2025response, author = {Setyawati, Dr Dinita and Setiawan, Dody}, title = {{Response to Indonesia’s Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) Progress Report 2025}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2025}, month = nov, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Policy-paper-–-Indonesia-JETP-2025.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }