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The document analyzes state fragility in Africa as a self-reinforcing syndrome driven by poor governance, conflict, inequality, and poverty. Using the International Futures system, it forecasts that while 16 of the 26 identified fragile countries may transition toward resilience by 2050, ten are at risk of remaining in a 'fragility trap'. The authors emphasize that while Africa's overall economy is projected to grow significantly, the gap in extreme poverty between fragile and resilient states is expected to widen unless inclusive growth and improved governance are achieved.

The policy brief highlights that mangroves are among the world's most threatened vegetation types, with over 20% lost in the last 30 years. It emphasizes that in Africa, mangroves often overlap with fossil fuel deposits and infrastructure projects, leading to degradation. The author advocates for the use of ecosystem valuations, integrated coastal zone management, and the inclusion of local communities in decision-making to reconcile economic growth with biodiversity conservation. Proposed interventions include the adoption of 'no net loss' policies, the use of Strategic Environmental Assessments (SEAs), and the implementation of Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) and Blue Carbon trading to provide financial incentives for conservation.

Brazil provides technical assistance to Africa primarily through the Brazilian Cooperation Agency (ABC), focusing on South-South solidarity and the transfer of domestic expertise in agriculture, health, and social policy. While Brazil has established flagship projects like ProSavana in Mozambique and 'Cotton-4' in West Africa, the rapid expansion of these commitments has led to institutional overstretch, a lack of monitoring mechanisms, and a need for greater transparency and civil society involvement.

The report examines the vulnerability of Senegal to religious radicalism and terrorism, particularly in the context of the conflict in Mali. While the majority of Senegalese citizens and traditional Sufi brotherhoods are viewed as a shield against extremism, the study identifies a growing minority of youth and 'reformist' movements influenced by Salafism and Wahhabism. These groups often express anti-Western sentiments and hostility toward traditional brotherhoods. The report highlights the risk posed by a dual educational system and the 'Islamisation of political contestation,' recommending a multidisciplinary approach to security and a national dialogue on education to mitigate the risk of radicalisation.

The document examines the role of African states in the global nuclear security framework, specifically focusing on the transition from the Nuclear Security Summit process to the IAEA's leadership. It highlights the limited representation of African nations at summits but notes their substantive contributions through treaty ratification and regional cooperation. The brief recommends that African states develop a unified perspective for upcoming international conferences and strengthen domestic legislation to align with global safety and security standards.

The research paper analyzes Senegal's strategic relationship with Guinea-Bissau from 2000 to 2012. It argues that under President Abdoulaye Wade, Senegal exercised a policy of patronage and influence over its smaller neighbor to secure military cooperation against the Mouvement des forces démocratiques de Casamance (MFDC). This influence was built on Senegal's relative economic power, diplomatic networks, and direct financial support to Guinean leaders and military officials. However, the document notes a decline in Senegalese influence after 2009 due to the deaths of key allies and the emergence of Angola as a primary diplomatic and financial partner for Guinea-Bissau.

The document examines the evolving relationship between France and Senegal, highlighting a shift from exclusive ties to a more diversified partnership under President Abdoulaye Wade. While France remains the primary economic partner and donor, the paper details periods of diplomatic tension, the reduction of French military presence, and a renewed cordiality following the 2012 elections of Macky Sall and François Hollande.

The document analyzes Senegal's use of patronage, economic influence, and military cooperation to exercise power over Guinea-Bissau from 2000 to 2012. It highlights how Senegal leveraged Guinea-Bissau's instability to secure military support against Casamance separatists, while noting the eventual decline of this influence due to the rise of Angolan involvement and internal Senegalese political shifts.

The report identifies a 'syndrome of fragility' in Africa driven by the interaction of poor governance, conflict, inequality, and poverty. Using the International Futures (IFs) system, it forecasts that while 16 of the 26 identified 'more fragile' states could transition toward resilience by 2050, ten countries—including the DRC, Somalia, and South Sudan—are at risk of remaining in a fragility trap. The analysis warns that climate change and democratic deficits could exacerbate these risks, and recommends long-term national development plans, extractive sector reform, and direct cash transfers to the poor to pivot toward a more optimistic future.

The document discusses the election of South Africa's Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma as head of the African Union (AU) Commission on 15 July 2012. It analyzes the aggressive campaign by South Africa and SADC, the reasons for her success—including election fatigue and the absence of key opponents—and the potential for resistance from AU members who perceive South Africa as having 'bullied' its way into the position. Despite these tensions, the briefing suggests her administrative skills and pan-African knowledge could improve AU functionality and consolidate peace, security, and governance initiatives.

The 18th AU Summit focused on electing the rotating AU Chair and AU Commission leadership, approving the 2012 budget, and inaugurating a new headquarters building funded by China. The document highlights significant managerial failures within the AU Commission, including a 48% vacancy rate for staff posts and low budget utilization in certain departments.

The policy brief examines the activities of Chinese state-run banks (Exim Bank and CDB) and the private Luso-Chinese fund Geocapital in Mozambique. While these entities leverage strong political and personal connections to enter the market, they have struggled to attract significant Chinese capital due to poor strategic planning and a lack of institutional capacity within Mozambique. The document highlights specific infrastructure loans and the establishment of Moza Banco, while noting that many large-scale projects have either collapsed or failed to materialize.

China has significantly increased and diversified its agricultural investments in Africa since 2000, driven by domestic food security concerns, market demand for commodities and biofuels, and a strategic 'going out' policy. These investments manifest as foreign direct investment (FDI), aid projects, infrastructure development, and technology transfer. While China's own success in poverty reduction through agricultural reform offers potential lessons, the paper notes that the effectiveness of these investments in Africa depends on local institutional environments and the adaptation of technology to specific African conditions.

The document examines the evolution of Portuguese-Angolan relations since Angola's independence, highlighting a shift from historical conflict to a strategic partnership driven by economic interests and political rapprochement following the end of the Angolan civil war in 2002.

The briefing describes Angola's political system as a hybrid of a formal government ruled by the MPLA and a more resilient 'shadow' government controlled by President José Eduardo Dos Santos. This shadow structure, powered by the national oil company Sonangol, manages international policy, money supply, and security independently of formal ministries. The author argues that recent legislative changes, including the 2010 constitution, have formalized the president's unlimited power and weakened the formal state's autonomy. While the regime maintains stability through a vast patronage network, the document identifies internal tensions within the MPLA and the risks of uncontrolled corruption as primary threats to the system's reproduction.

The document analyzes the AU's framework for democracy promotion, specifically its rejection of unconstitutional changes of government. It details the evolution of this principle from the Lomé Declaration of 2000 to the 2007 African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance, and discusses the 'democrat's dilemma' where popular uprisings to remove authoritarian leaders conflict with strict constitutionalism. The author argues for more consistent application of sanctions against leaders who refuse to leave office after elections and suggests the Pan-African Parliament develop guidelines for managing civilian-led transitions to democracy.

The document examines India's strategic shift toward Africa to diversify its energy imports and reduce dependence on the Middle East. It contrasts India's 'hybrid model' of engagement—which combines resource extraction with capacity building and infrastructure development—against the more mercantilist approaches of other powers. The author argues that for the partnership to be sustainable, India should leverage its expertise in renewable energy and rural electrification to support Africa's own development goals.

The document presents results from a pilot study of 177 armed conflict actors in 20 African countries. It finds that sexual violence is often indiscriminate, frequently committed by state armies, and can persist in post-conflict periods or years with low killing rates. The study emphasizes that sexual violence is not an inevitable part of war, as many actors do not engage in it, and recommends improved reporting mechanisms and targeted interventions to reduce its occurrence.

The paper challenges the finding that warming is robustly linked to civil war in Sub-Saharan Africa by replicating and testing the model used by Burke et al. (2009). Through influence diagnostics, alternative operationalizations of civil war, and expanded sample periods, the authors find that the reported positive effect of temperature is tenuous and often disappears. The analysis suggests that the original results were driven by a few influential observations involving foreign intervention and that climate variables provide negligible predictive power compared to country-specific fixed effects and time trends.

The document argues that the rise of emerging powers—specifically the BRIC nations—provides an opportunity for South Africa and the broader African continent to shift the global economic center of gravity toward the South. Minister Nkoana‐Mashabane emphasizes that South Africa seeks to balance its memberships in IBSA and BRIC to amplify the voice of developing nations in multilateral processes and the reform of Bretton Woods Institutions. For Africa to transition into an emerging power itself, the Minister identifies four critical priority areas: Infrastructure, Intra-trade, Industry, and Integration. The speech frames these geopolitical shifts not as a zero-sum game, but as a means to address shared global challenges including climate change and energy security through cooperation between the developed and developing worlds.