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ELECTION REPORT Assessment of Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference in the 2025 Polish Presidential Election
The report identifies a persistent FIMI landscape in Poland, characterized by Russian and Belarusian operations targeting Ukrainian refugees, the EU, and democratic institutions. It highlights the use of coordinated inauthentic behavior, AI-generated content, and content laundering to amplify polarizing narratives. While public resilience and civil society interventions limited the impact, the report notes significant platform failures—particularly on X, Meta, and TikTok—and a regulatory vacuum due to the absence of a permanent Digital Services Coordinator in Poland.
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Document type: Report
Generative AI and the German Far Right
The report analyzes 883 posts featuring AI-generated content (AIGC) from German far-right accounts, finding that generative AI is used as a cost-effective complement to existing digital strategies. Key actors include the AfD, 'Neue Rechte' outlets, and AI-generated 'influencers'. The content primarily focuses on anti-migrant narratives, attacks on the 'traffic light' coalition government, and the glorification of an idealized German identity. The study highlights a significant lack of platform compliance with the EU Digital Services Act (DSA) and the AI Act regarding the labeling and removal of misleading AIGC.
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Document type: Report
Reforming ECOWAS 2025 Policy Brief
The document analyzes the crisis facing ECOWAS in 2025, characterized by the exit of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, and a decline in the organization's normative authority regarding democratic governance. It identifies a structural power imbalance where the executive Authority dominates, leading to inconsistent applications of 'zero-tolerance' policies toward unconstitutional changes of government (UCGs). The authors propose a three-phase reform strategy: first, restoring political authority through the operationalization of ECOSOC and revised sanctions; second, rebalancing power by making Court rulings binding and introducing parliamentary confirmation for Commission leadership; and third, transitioning to a supranational model with direct elections for the Parliament and primacy of Community law. The brief emphasizes the need for a coalition of 'reform champions'—including Sierra Leone, Nigeria, Senegal, and Ghana—and strategic financial support from Germany and the EU to ensure regional stability.
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Document type: Policy brief
Ethics in Peace Negotiations: Key Questions
The document argues that peace negotiations are not merely about power and interests but are deeply influenced by ethical considerations. It presents a holistic framework (the 4Ps) to help practitioners and analysts identify moral dilemmas. The guide explores the tension between peace and justice, the ethics of inclusion and representation, the virtues of negotiators, and the legitimacy of procedural organization, emphasizing that ethical and strategic considerations are inseparable.
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Document type: Guide
G20 Climate, Sustainability, Energy and Climate Finance Commitments
The report tracks G20 climate commitments from 2008 to 2024, noting a shift from general statements to specific goals like phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies and implementing the Paris Agreement. It highlights the disruptive impact of US withdrawals from the Paris Agreement under the Trump administration and the challenges of institutional memory within the G20. For its 2025 presidency, South Africa focuses on 'solidarity, equality and sustainability', with specific priorities for Africa-focused energy access, climate-resilient agriculture, and scaling adaptation finance.
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Document type: Report
Technology for Green Growth and Industrialisation
The paper provides a comparative analysis of green industrial policies in Brazil and South Africa, focusing on solar photovoltaic (PV) and onshore wind energy. It argues that while market-based mechanisms like auctions attract investment, state-led industrial policies—including localisation requirements and concessional finance—are essential for domestic technological upgrading and job creation. Brazil is highlighted for its relative success in building a domestic wind turbine supply chain through the BNDES and PROINFA, whereas South Africa's progress via the REIPPPP has been hindered by institutional resistance from the state utility Eskom and grid infrastructure bottlenecks. The author concludes that a just transition requires aligning energy procurement with long-term industrial strategies, investing in grid modernization, and leveraging multilateral platforms like BRICS and the G20 to facilitate technology transfer.
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Document type: Research paper
Production Gap Report 2025
The Production Gap Report 2025 finds that governments are planning more fossil fuel production than in 2023, with projected 2030 levels exceeding 1.5°C-consistent pathways by over 120%. While some countries are advancing clean energy transitions, 17 of 20 profiled major producers still plan to increase the production of at least one fossil fuel by 2030, undermining global climate commitments.
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Document type: Executive summary
Online Appendix to the 2025 Production Gap Report
The appendix outlines the technical process for estimating the 'government plans and projections' (GPP) pathway using data from 19 major producer countries, which accounted for approximately 81% of global fossil fuel production in 2022. It describes the harmonization of diverse national data into exajoules (EJ) per year and the use of IEA's Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) to scale these figures to a global estimate. The document also explains the conversion of energy units into physical units and extraction-based greenhouse gas emissions using specific emission factors for coal, oil, and gas.
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Document type: Report
Incorporating Natural Resource Safeguards in Linear Infrastructure Planning
The report outlines ten best practices for linear infrastructure (LI) development to mitigate impacts on nature. Key recommendations include conducting strategic environmental assessments (SEAs), incorporating mandatory safeguards in financial policies, and adhering to the mitigation hierarchy (avoid, minimize, restore, compensate). It emphasizes early integration of environmental and social impact assessments (ESIAs) and the use of climate vulnerability assessments. The document also advocates for wildlife-friendly designs, including ecological corridors, and the adoption of sustainable infrastructure certifications to ensure long-term ecological integrity.
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Document type: Report
Modernizing EXIM Bank for a High-Growth, High-Tech 21st Century
The report examines the operational and policy failures of the US Export-Import Bank (EXIM), arguing that its outdated risk appetite and domestic content requirements hinder US competitiveness in the global energy transition. It highlights the leadership of foreign export credit agencies (ECAs) from China, Germany, Japan, and India in supporting clean tech and recommends specific legislative and procedural reforms—including raising the default rate cap and expanding support for critical material inputs—to ensure US high-tech industries can meet growing global demand for advanced energy solutions.
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Document type: Report
CARBON COMPETITIVENESS: SOUTH AFRICA AT THE NET ZERO-TRADE NEXUS
South Africa's carbon-intensive export model is increasingly vulnerable as 78% of its exports are sold to countries with net zero targets. The report highlights acute risks in the basic metals, automotive, and agricultural sectors due to high embodied CO2 emissions compared to global competitors. While the EU's CBAM and shifting US trade policies pose immediate threats, South Africa's reserves of critical minerals and renewable energy potential offer a strategic path toward 'carbon competitiveness'. The report argues that success depends on decarbonising the national electricity grid, implementing the Climate Change Act 2024, and securing international support through the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP).
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Document type: Report
Beyond Thermal: Europe’s financial institutions must act on metallurgical coal
Reclaim Finance calls on European financial institutions to phase out financing for metallurgical coal, noting that while some banks have project-level restrictions, many others have no commitments at all. The document highlights that the steel sector can become coal-free by the early 2040s and warns that continuing to fund metallurgical coal is a risky investment given the industry's transition toward cleaner alternatives.
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Document type: Statement
EU Deforestation Regulation: Balancing Climate Action and Global Trade Challenges
The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) aims to reduce the EU's role in global deforestation by requiring sustainable sourcing of commodities like cattle, cocoa, and wood. However, the regulation has faced strong opposition from producer nations in the Global South, who describe it as 'regulatory imperialism' and a 'discriminatory and punitive unilateral benchmarking system'. These countries argue that the EUDR ignores national laws and shifts the financial burden of compliance onto producers, with Brazil estimating risks to exports worth 15 billion dollars and Indonesia facing potential losses of seven billion dollars. Internal EU political pressure has led to the regulation's postponement to the end of 2025 and the introduction of a 'no-risk' category, which critics warn could create loopholes for deforestation-linked products. The document further notes that some countries are redirecting exports to markets with less stringent requirements, such as China and Africa. It concludes that the EU must involve affected nations in policy drafting and prioritize reducing domestic consumption of high-impact products to achieve genuine sustainability.
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Document type: Research paper
The upside of down
The author reflects on the mixed progress of 2024, noting record renewable deployment alongside rising global emissions and a political shift toward anti-climate positions. To overcome these hurdles, the author proposes a strategy focused on the lowest-cost electricity mix, including 'clean firm' technologies like nuclear and geothermal, and the use of carbon capture in heavy industry. The document emphasizes the need for regionally differentiated policies and a realistic acknowledgment of the long-term role of fossil fuels to build durable coalitions for action.
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Document type: Statement
TikTok and X recommend pro-AfD content to non-partisan users ahead of the German elections
Global Witness conducted a test using new social media accounts in Germany to assess algorithmic bias. The study found that TikTok and X disproportionately recommended right-leaning and pro-AfD content to users who expressed equal interest in four major parties. In contrast, Instagram primarily showed content from accounts the users had explicitly followed. The report also highlights instances where X amplified hate speech and TikTok promoted a political advertisement despite a platform-wide ban on such content.
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Document type: Research paper
A Dubious Alliance: Netanyahu’s Israel and Europe’s Far-Right
The document analyzes the strategic and ideological alignment between Benjamin Netanyahu's government and European far-right actors, such as Hungary's Viktor Orbán and the Netherlands' Geert Wilders. It argues that Israel uses these 'illiberal' allies to bypass EU consensus and legitimize its policies in the Occupied Palestinian Territories, while the European parties use the relationship to deflect accusations of antisemitism. This alliance is characterized as a 'quid-pro-quo' based on shared hostility toward Islam, multiculturalism, and international law, ultimately aiming to establish 'illiberal polypore states' that exploit democratic institutions for populist ends.
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Document type: Research paper
The EU and UK Withdraw from the Energy Charter Treaty: A New Era for Climate Action
The EU and UK have withdrawn from the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT), but a 'sunset clause' in Article 47(3) may extend fossil fuel investment protections for up to 20 years, potentially until 2043. The author contends that the ECT is part of a systemic global issue involving over 2,800 bilateral investment treaties (BITs) and 450 treaties with investment provisions (TIPs) that facilitate investor-State dispute settlement (ISDS) claims against climate policies. Current reform efforts by UNCITRAL, UNCTAD, the WTO, and the OECD are described as fragmented or focused on procedural rather than substantive changes. The document proposes the use of 'inter se' agreements to neutralize sunset clauses and the creation of a legally binding multilateral or plurilateral agreement to immediately remove investment benefits for fossil fuels and align financial flows with Article 2.1(c) of the Paris Agreement.
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Document type: Research paper
Security and efficiency: The case for connecting Europe and North America
The report argues that a transatlantic electricity interconnector could enhance grid resilience and efficiency by leveraging the complementarity of time zones and weather patterns between Europe and North America. It highlights that a six-hour time difference creates arbitrage opportunities for solar production and demand, while uncorrelated or negatively correlated wind and temperature patterns can mitigate the impact of extreme weather. The author suggests that such an interconnector could be a more cost-effective tool for security of supply and decarbonisation than alternatives like nuclear power or hydrogen, though it would require significant government support and investment.
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Document type: Report
The South African G20 Presidency and Implementation of SDR Rechannelling
The document examines the potential for rechannelling Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) from wealthy IMF member states to Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), specifically the African Development Bank (AfDB), to address Africa's annual financing gap of over $400 billion. It details a proposal where SDRs would serve as hybrid capital, allowing the AfDB to leverage funds up to four times on capital markets. The brief identifies significant political and legal barriers, including the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary financing prohibition and the lack of formal commitment from major holders like China, Japan, and the US. It recommends that South Africa's G20 presidency use diplomacy to seek ECB clarification, coordinate a Liquidity Support Agreement (LSA) with bilateral partners, and explore innovative fiscal tools such as SDR bonds or direct allocations to prescribed holders.
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Document type: Policy brief
Reflections on APRI's Inaugural Africa in the World Event
The document reflects on the 'Reimagining Development Cooperation: Pragmatic Pathways for Africa-Germany Relations' event held in Berlin on January 24, 2024. It argues that the current relationship is rooted in a 'neocolonial model' characterized by unequal raw materials acquisition and a lack of value addition within African economies. Key discussions centered on the need to move beyond 'North-South' labels, the importance of industrialisation, and the necessity of shifting from a 'help partnership' to one based on mutual benefit and African leadership in agenda-setting. While the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) suggests 'refocusing' the relationship via its Africa Strategy, other participants called for a complete 'uprooting and disruption' of the current system to address colonial legacies and debt issues.
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Document type: Research paper