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The document argues that the IGAD peace process in Sudan is undermined by a lack of trust between the Government of Sudan (GoS) and the SPLM/A, systemic failures in monitoring security agreements, and the GoS's use of proxy militias to maintain influence. It highlights specific breaches of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement in the Shilluk Kingdom and Western Upper Nile, where civilian abuses and cattle looting occurred. The author concludes that sustainable peace requires a democratic transformation of the Sudanese state to address root grievances, rather than focusing solely on security maintenance.

The South Sudan Defence Force (SSDF) is a fragmented coalition of militias and former SPLM/A fighters that provides critical security for Sudan's oil fields and government-held towns in the south. Despite its strategic importance, the SSDF was omitted from the September 2003 Framework Agreement on Security Arrangements, which recognized only the Government of Sudan (GoS) and the SPLM/A. This exclusion, combined with the GoS's policy of dividing southern forces and the SPLM/A's reluctance to acknowledge the SSDF's military capacity, threatens the viability of the peace process. The report highlights ongoing violence in Western Upper Nile and among the Shilluk community as evidence of the instability caused by the lack of south-south reconciliation.

The paper analyzes the Sudan-IGAD peace process, highlighting the shift from the first stage of negotiations between the Government of Sudan (GoS) and the SPLM/A to a necessary second stage focused on inclusivity and democratic transformation. It argues that the success of the Machakos Protocol depends on expanding the process to include civil society and northern opposition groups, as well as resolving volatile bilateral relations with neighbors like Eritrea and Uganda. The author emphasizes the critical role of US pressure and the need for a successful referendum on self-determination for southern Sudan to prevent a return to conflict.

The document analyzes the IGAD-led peace process between the Government of Sudan (GoS) and the Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A), highlighting the critical role of US pressure and the Machakos Protocol. It warns that the initial 'elite-driven' and 'secretive' approach must be replaced by transparency and democratic engagement to prevent instability from marginalized groups, such as the SSDF and the SLM/A in Darfur. The author emphasizes that internal stability is inextricably linked to resolving contentious bilateral relations with neighbors, particularly Eritrea and Uganda, and calls for a comprehensive regional framework to secure the peace.

The report examines the intended and unintended gendered consequences of three international interventions: the UN Mission in Eritrea/Ethiopia (UNMEE), the NATO Stabilization Force in Bosnia and Herzegovina (SFOR), and the Temporary International Presence in Hebron (TIPH). It identifies significant gaps between UN norms—such as Resolution 1325—and field realities, highlighting issues like increased prostitution in Eritrea, the failure to treat sexual violence as a security threat in Bosnia, and the need for gender-sensitive training in Hebron. The authors argue that gender mainstreaming is often treated as a 'soft' issue rather than a rational security necessity and recommend that Norway lead efforts in creating gender-aware recruitment databases and a Nordic-Canadian lobby to promote these goals within the UN system.

The report examines the 'cold peace' between Ethiopia and Eritrea after their 1998-2000 border war. While the Algiers Peace Accord ended active hostilities, the subsequent ruling by the Border Commission to award the symbolic town of Badme to Eritrea has created a political impasse. Ethiopia, influenced by the Tigray Regional State, has rejected the ruling as 'wrong and unjust,' leading to a stalemate in physical demarcation. The author argues that the international community's focus on technical demarcation is insufficient and that genuine political dialogue is required to address deep-seated mistrust and economic strains to avoid a return to war.

This research paper by David H. Shinn analyzes Sudan's strategic position in Africa, focusing on its internal civil war, the economic impact of oil, and its complex bilateral relations with its nine neighboring countries as of March 2003.

As of mid-2001, Africa hosted approximately 5 million refugees and 21 million internally displaced persons (IDPs). The report highlights that IDPs now outnumber refugees globally and that in Africa, 80% of refugees are hosted by least developed countries. Significant displacement is driven by conflict and drought, particularly in Sudan, Angola, and the DRC. Children under 18 make up 56% of all refugees in Africa, exceeding 60% in countries such as Angola, Togo, Guinea, Burundi, Rwanda, Sudan, and the DRC.

The document examines the motivations and activities of US government agencies and private organisations in promoting stability in Africa. It argues that while the US has a profound humanitarian impulse and a stated interest in regional stability, its policy is primarily reactive and lacks a coherent, long-term strategy. The report details the roles of the Department of State, Department of Defense, and USAID, alongside the influence of the US Congress and various NGOs. Key initiatives of the Clinton era are analysed, including the African Crisis Response Initiative (ACRI) and the African Growth and Opportunity Act, while providing strategic advice to African leaders on how to effectively engage with the fragmented US policy apparatus.

The document examines the 'peace pyramid' model of conflict management in Africa, where subregional organisations act as the base, the OAU as the linkage, and the UN as the apex. It argues that while subregional bodies like ECOWAS and SADC are often better motivated for intervention due to proximity, they lack institutionalised crisis management mechanisms and are built upon fragile states. The author suggests that effective regional security requires a focus on state-building, good governance, and the creation of permanent secretariats to ensure impartiality and reliability.

The document analyzes the shift from security-focused disarmament forums, such as the Conference on Disarmament (CD) and the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW), toward the humanitarian-led Ottawa Process. It details the progression of meetings from Ottawa in 1996 through Brussels and Oslo in 1997, culminating in a treaty for a total ban on anti-personnel landmines (APMs). The paper highlights the role of smaller states and NGOs, the specific challenges posed by US security exemptions, and the acute impact of landmines in Africa.

The document highlights that just 1% of Eritrea's estimated superhot rock geothermal resource could provide 77 GW of energy capacity, far exceeding the country's 2021 electricity consumption of 384 GWh. While not expected to reach commercial scale by 2030, this technology could theoretically replace all fossil fuels in Eritrea's electricity sector, reducing emissions by 0.33 megatonnes of CO2eq, which represents 11% of the nation's NDC goal. The report emphasizes the technology's low land footprint—requiring roughly 12 km² per 1 GW—and its ability to provide reliable, 24/7 firm power.

Black carbon (BC), or soot, is a potent short-lived climate pollutant resulting from incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and biomass. It causes significant respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, contributing to millions of excess deaths annually, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Economically, BC exposure and reliance on unclean cooking fuels cause trillions of dollars in losses. Climatically, BC warms the atmosphere by absorbing solar energy and accelerates ice melt in the Arctic and Himalayas by reducing albedo. The report argues that reducing BC emissions—especially through clean cooking fuels in sub-Saharan Africa and transportation improvements in urban areas—would prevent millions of premature deaths, reduce deforestation, and help limit global warming to 1.5°C.

The report examines Sudan's history of military coups, focusing on the 30-year authoritarian rule of Omar al-Bashir and the subsequent 2019 transition attempt. It details the power-sharing agreement between the Transitional Military Council (TMC) and the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC), and the subsequent October 2021 coup by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. The author argues that the coup weakened the civilian government and strengthened the military's influence, leaving the path to democracy uncertain and potentially destabilizing the Horn of Africa.

The document examines the political landscape in Ethiopia after the death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, noting his legacy of economic growth and strategic alignment with the West. While short-term destabilisation is deemed unlikely due to intact security infrastructure, the briefing highlights risks associated with the ethnic-based ruling coalition and the potential for parochial politics to emerge.

The crisis in South Sudan has intensified regional rivalries in the Horn of Africa, drawing in neighboring states through military intervention, refugee influxes, and proxy support. Uganda has intervened militarily to support President Salva Kiir's government to protect economic interests and political influence. Sudan, while officially supporting the government, is suspected of supporting opposition forces to weaken South Sudan and re-establish influence. Ethiopia seeks to prevent a total state collapse to avoid ethnic spillover into its Gambella region and to block Eritrean infiltration. Eritrea is alleged to be covertly supporting opposition forces to undermine Ethiopia's regional predominance and strengthen its strategic relationship with Sudan.

The author contends that current humanitarian military interventions in Africa are inadequate because they rely on Cold War-era peacekeeping doctrines that prioritize humanitarian assistance over the restoration of security. This failure, combined with the perceived lethargy of UN interventions, has led African institutions to deploy forces that often lack sufficient mandates and resources. The paper proposes a new doctrine of 'humanitarian security intervention' with a higher remit for the use of force to better meet the needs of civilian protection and security restoration.

The author contends that despite Equatorial Guinea's status as a major oil producer, the majority of its population lives in poverty while the ruling Obiang family amasses vast wealth through corruption. The text urges the Obama administration to denounce torture, seize ill-gotten US assets of the Obiang family, and support credible elections and independent media in Equatorial Guinea to move away from 'strongmen' toward 'strong institutions'.

The document warns that a proposed Protocol to the Convention on Conventional Weapons (CCW) would allow some countries to continue trading, stockpiling, and using cluster munitions, thereby weakening the international legal standard established by the 2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM). It highlights that Africa is disproportionately affected by these weapons, with nearly a third of affected countries and territories located on the continent. The author urges African states to maintain their commitment to a total ban to avoid setting a dangerous legal precedent where a lower standard of international law is adopted after a higher one has already been agreed upon.

The document examines the demobilisation and reintegration of military personnel across various African nations, arguing that while downsizing armed forces can potentially free resources for development and serve as a confidence-building measure, the actual impact is not automatic. It highlights that high costs of resettlement and reintegration often offset short-term financial gains. The author emphasizes that successful demobilisation depends heavily on political will, the institutional environment, and the availability of sustainable economic opportunities for ex-combatants to prevent the reoccurrence of conflict.